It does seem, from our experience, that wait lists have a much greater chance for success if they're for just one or perhaps two nights...longer ones don't seem to work out.
Prior to the rules change, there was no limit on the number of active waitlists you could have, and you could W/L day-by-day...of about 12 W/Ls, all but one came through--including one 5-night spring break trip booked about 6 weeks out (I have a DS in college/law school who's "allergic" to planning, so since 2005 we've tried to do at least 8 last-minute trips--all worked out prior to the rules change; none since)...since the rule change, I've only had one W/L come through, and it was for just one night (which I'd booked for cash thru MS and W/L'ed to get it on points...that ressie was about 5 months out and it took about 3 weeks for the one night on points W/L to come through)...
So the new rules do seem to limit W/L success...
Prior to the rules change, there was no limit on the number of active waitlists you could have, and you could W/L day-by-day...of about 12 W/Ls, all but one came through--including one 5-night spring break trip booked about 6 weeks out (I have a DS in college/law school who's "allergic" to planning, so since 2005 we've tried to do at least 8 last-minute trips--all worked out prior to the rules change; none since)...since the rule change, I've only had one W/L come through, and it was for just one night (which I'd booked for cash thru MS and W/L'ed to get it on points...that ressie was about 5 months out and it took about 3 weeks for the one night on points W/L to come through)...
So the new rules do seem to limit W/L success...
