VWL-2 Being Fast Tracked?

[hakepb]

I wouldn't put much faith in this rumor (at least not the reasoning). Wil (DVCNews.com) made an interesting observation comparing November 2014 and November 2015 sales that may surprise some people.

If they believed there was a demand problem, why would they have just raised the price? Doesn't follow any business logic.

Raise the price, then offer a "sale" is a common business model. JCPenny about bankrupted itself when a newer CEO lowered every day prices instead of staying with high prices and "big sales"

Or they just keep raising Poly prices to lure in more Aluani sales.

 

[southerngirl528]

Or they just keep raising Poly prices to lure in more Aluani sales.

THAT, Hakepb is a profound statement IMO and one with which I happen to very much agree. A big challenge to sales is that there is really only one resort to sell from WDW which is home to the vast majority of the DVC sales centers, and most certainly the only ones hauling in the $$$. Aulani is an extraordinary resort and truly a standout not only in the DVC collection but from the entire Disney hotel collection IMHO. Problem is that Aulani isn't really a good purchase option for those in the eastern half of the U.S. mainland unless you really love Hawaii. It's a long flight. LONG. I really love Hawaii but as a very longtime member I would never recommend it to someone to buy unless they meet the criterion above.

The rumor I keep hearing from friends that work at DVC here in central FL is that Aulani's sales have not been what was projected since the beginning, due in large to the horrific natural disasters that hit Japan around the same time Aulani was offered for sale. Japanese buyers were expected to be a very large faction but apparently those numbers have been much less. And Aulani is a large resort. Larger resorts simply take longer to sell by the sheer numbers. And I also hear that sales in California at DL are lackluster as well. I think DVC simply needs another resort option to sell. Not everyone loves the Poly and certainly many of us that joined in the early years are averse to not be able to book a 1 bedroom villa. We are spoiled to staying in a 1 bdrm even with just 2 of us.

 

[Dean]

THAT, Hakepb is a profound statement IMO and one with which I happen to very much agree. A big challenge to sales is that there is really only one resort to sell from WDW which is home to the vast majority of the DVC sales centers, and most certainly the only ones hauling in the $$$. Aulani is an extraordinary resort and truly a standout not only in the DVC collection but from the entire Disney hotel collection IMHO. Problem is that Aulani isn't really a good purchase option for those in the eastern half of the U.S. mainland unless you really love Hawaii. It's a long flight. LONG. I really love Hawaii but as a very longtime member I would never recommend it to someone to buy unless they meet the criterion above.

The rumor I keep hearing from friends that work at DVC here in central FL is that Aulani's sales have not been what was projected since the beginning, due in large to the horrific natural disasters that hit Japan around the same time Aulani was offered for sale. Japanese buyers were expected to be a very large faction but apparently those numbers have been much less. And Aulani is a large resort. Larger resorts simply take longer to sell by the sheer numbers. And I also hear that sales in California at DL are lackluster as well. I think DVC simply needs another resort option to sell. Not everyone loves the Poly and certainly many of us that joined in the early years are averse to not be able to book a 1 bedroom villa. We are spoiled to staying in a 1 bdrm even with just 2 of us.

I don't think it's a surprise that Aulani is selling poorly simply related to not having the park draw and DVC's lack of reasonable aggression in scheduling tours and during the sale process. They could, and IMO should, be far more aggressive in both areas and could EASILY do so without being unprofessional or sleazy. I know some will say one of the things they like about DVC is that they are easy going in this area but the fact is there IS a downside from an owners standpoint. That approach has already cost members at least 3 off property options and likely several more. I'm not sure they were as centered on the Japanese and related markets as much as some think but if so, that was overly optimistic. Ko Olina is a nice area but it's still not main stream Oahu.

 

[dizfan]

Raise the price, then offer a "sale" is a common business model. JCPenny about bankrupted itself when a newer CEO lowered every day prices instead of staying with high prices and "big sales"

Or they just keep raising Poly prices to lure in more Aluani sales.

If they offer incentives, I 100% agree with you that is a common business model. 11 months of sales and no incentives offered so far. I stand by my belief they do not seem to be concerned about sales as many think. For reference, November 2014 county VGF deeds totaled 71,922 points (based on Wil's data on DVCNews.com). Wil and I are both tracking PVB data, we both show November 2015 PVB deeds with 79,601 points.

People quickly forget VGF saw a dramatic increase in sales when DVD used the standard almost sold out marketing tool for VGF. For a stretch of 2013, there were questions about VGF sales. After AKV sold out, VGF sales picked up. Then, slowed. When DVD sent out the VGF 80% sold out fliers the boards were filled with plenty of people who said DVD was using it as a marketing tool and there was no way they were that far along in sales. VGF sales gained steam from that marketing tool.

With PVB, the start of sales was terrible. DVD didn't have approval to sell PVB in all states until April or May. For reference, I did a check on VGF and they were able to sell in states like California and New York within a couple weeks of VGF going on sale.

I disagree with many who think DVD was incompetent in getting approval to sell in all states. Disney would fire someone if they were incompetent to that level. Instead, it is likely DVD wanted to sell out VGF before switching fully to PVB.

During that stretch when PVB was not approved in all states, a guide risked losing a sale if they promoted PVB to someone from one of those non-approved states. I know I would not put in effort to sell something knowing that a good portion of buyers do not buy on site. Instead, they buy when they get home. It was illegal for a guide to even talk to someone from those non-approved states about PVB once they flew home. Having to use the "I know nothing" line angered guides. If I were a guide, I would have been pushing VGF hard to every person knowing I could lose a commission if they wanted PVB buy did not buy on property.

Admittedly, when they approval in all states was taking many months, I thought current DVD management was incompetent and would not last through 2015. Today, I think it was by design.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

I'd hesitate to claim that Aulani is doing so poorly. According to Wil Lovato's tracking in the past year it has averaged only 4,414 points less per months that PVB. Considering that the parks are the big draw to DVC the fact that an off site resort is holding close to an onsite only gives me the impression that PVB is the location that is selling poorly. In September Aulani blew PVB out of the water selling 133,905 vs 82,909. Poly - the resort that was going to sell itself getting outsold by an offsite resort.

I'm sure that the sale pitch goes something like - "you can own a resort in HAWAII but stay anywhere else whenever you like" but they're still selling it.

 

[dizfan]

I forgot, DVD did offer an incentive for PVB. $5 off per point for anyone buying 2000 points. (No 2000 is not a typo). Anyone spending $320,000 or more on PVB points receives the discount.

NOTE: based on county data so far, no single master contract number has taken advantage of that incentive. (This includes contracts across multiple contracts, but they must be the same master contact portion). However, it is possible that someone purchased multiple UYs or is paying for them in weekly/monthly installments (not through a mortgage) so it could be several months before they show up on the county web site.

 

[disneynutz]

I don't think it's a surprise that Aulani is selling poorly simply related to not having the park draw and DVC's lack of reasonable aggression in scheduling tours and during the sale process. They could, and IMO should, be far more aggressive in both areas and could EASILY do so without being unprofessional or sleazy. I know some will say one of the things they like about DVC is that they are easy going in this area but the fact is there IS a downside from an owners standpoint. That approach has already cost members at least 3 off property options and likely several more. I'm not sure they were as centered on the Japanese and related markets as much as some think but if so, that was overly optimistic. Ko Olina is a nice area but it's still not main stream Oahu.

They do have a sales office in Japan, a Japanese member website and Japanese speaking CM's at MS.

Bill

 

[Dean]

They do have a sales office in Japan, a Japanese member website and Japanese speaking CM's at MS.

Bill

I know but some seem to think that was an almost exclusive focus, my view it was just part of the plan. The other was current members or potential WDW members.