Villas at the Grand Floridian Presale to Begin May 25th?

[DenLo]

Comparing the GFV with VWL (I don't own at BCV so I have no experience looking at the resales history) I think would garner similar result.

VWL was sold in 2001 (I think), I bought on the first day it was offered.
Now 12 years later I can still sell my contract probably for how much I purchased it... which means I will lose the commission of course. But considering we have used it for 12 years losing 10% for commission doesn't sound so bad.
So the price has pretty much been steady... very similar to BLT only comparing 4yrs to 12 yrs.

Here's the information on the Resource thread regarding VWL sales dates and prices. http://www.disboards.com/showthread.php?t=2823943

November, 2000 -- VWL Opens, BWV Sells-out
December, 2000 -- VWL sales begin
January, 2001 -- $72
March, 2001 -- an increase to $75 announced for June
June, 2001 -- $75

BCV appears to be selling right at the $75 to $78 range.

 

[NoleFan]

I don't have anywhere near the experience as some of the veterans on here. From what I have read, the smaller resorts (perhaps VGC, BCV, BLT, VWL) have really maintained their value (open prices vs. current resale prices. Since VGF is the WDW smallest resort, I would suspect that their resale market will be in line with VGC. The larger resorts AKL & SSR seems to have the biggest price difference in direct vs. resale & I would even speculate to say in opening prices vs. current resale prices. Supply & demand?

 

[mopee3]

Does anyone have a clue as to what if any common areas there will be, like GF? Like BLT? Like OKW? Like WL or Jambo House?

I see that Mike at DVCNews said there wouldn't be any, so what does that leave, just hallways?

Anyone want to take a guess?

Moe

 

[mjc2003]

Maybe not .90 cents but sellers would be foolish to ask .65 cents.

As cseca points out, the primary reasons BLT resales settled in the $90s were the poor state of the economy and the fact that DVC's lowest offering price was around $93 per point.

Today the economy is much better than it was in 2009 and the lowest VGF offering price will be $145.

You are correct that many buyers are overextended. But that will also play a role in asking prices. A buyer who puts 10% down on VGF and finances at 11.5% will not be paying down the principle quickly. On a 200 pt purchase, the buyer will still owe $22,900 on the loan, or $114.50 per point. Factor in broker commission and they'll need to get $127 per point just to walk away.

In terms of size, a better parallel to VGF is the Grand Californian. VGC started selling in January 2009--4.5 years ago. Today if you peruse the reseller listings you won't find more than a half-dozen contracts and most of those are sale pending. Asking prices range from $115-125. Relative scarcity of VGF contracts should help resale prices for that resort, too.

Five years ago, it was commonplace for the disparity between direct and resale prices to be in the $15 per point neighborhood. The glut of contracts hitting the market during the recession, combined with DVC's overbuilding at SSR and AKV pushed prices to new lows. But that phenomenon will not necessarily repeat itself.

You said nobody would pay .90 cents on the dollar for VGF in a few years. My question is why WOULDN'T they?? If 2015 rolls around and DVC is asking upward of $160 per point, why wouldn't someone buy a resale contract for $135-140? The banked / borrowed point status of the contract will play a role. But if the resale contract is relatively equal to what DVC offers, those prices will still save $4000-5000 off of direct prices on a 200 pt contract. There should absolutely be buyers at that rate. The convenience of buying direct isn't worth $4-5k.

I understand that current resales at BLT are in line with their intro price, but that doesn't change that current resales at BLT are still about 60% of retail. So my point is that I don't think the opening price is determining where the resales settle, but more so the buying populations comfort level with opting for resale over direct. I think if GFV is at $160 and resales are listed for $145, people will opt for direct b/c of the easier financing, and the perceived difference in "perks", and the easier process. This will drive resales down to where people see an appreciable difference. I also think it's much easier to finance direct purchases when you're talking about these types of buy in prices, so there won't be a huge base of people who can afford to lay out enough to pay for a resale at $130-$140. While there is resale financing, I would hope folks are smarter than to tie up $30,000+ at 15% with pre-payment penalties.

I also agree with the other poster who said that VGC are not an equitable comparison b/c they're the only game in town. There is a lot more "competition" to drive prices down at WDW.

I also agree that just because somebody needs to get xxx amount for a resale to cover their loan does not by any means guarantee that somebody will pay that amount. So somebody can stick to their guns but that doesn't guarantee a buyer.

I think it'll be very interesting to see how this plays out. Remember too, it sounds like Poly will be next, so there is a potential "glut" of MK area DVC to be had in a few years. I'm sure your point about the size of GFV will hold true, and that there won't be a lot of available listings, but I just don't see the resale prices holding anywhere near the $145 initial retail price. Also consider that diminished listings don't always make a market; heck, the first person to sell could set the bar.
Of course what do I know, I'm just speculating.

 

[dwight16]

i was thinking about buying 25 to 50 points but then i looked at the points charts the cheapest week is 125 points and forget about a 1bedroom or and 2bedroom saw some of them over 400 points a week. so i asked myself what is the point of a small add on. to get a few nights every 3 years at 11 months. i am still on the wait list for bwv so just going to stay the course. at least you can grab a room for under 100 points there.

 

[DebbieB]

Does anyone have a clue as to what if any common areas there will be, like GF? Like BLT? Like OKW? Like WL or Jambo House?

I see that Mike at DVCNews said there wouldn't be any, so what does that leave, just hallways?

Anyone want to take a guess?

Moe

That's a good question. My guess is it will be like BCV or VWL. I don't think there's a separate front desk.

 

[Paula Sedley-Burke]

I was going to add some points then I remembered the small matter of having to pay for them and don't want a divorce when the credit card bill arrives. ....maybe put us on wait list with same odds as lottery but a girl can dream.

Somehow I think pool hopping will be a no no lol..

 

[wilma-bride]

I was going to add some points then I remembered the small matter of having to pay for them and don't want a divorce when the credit card bill arrives. ....maybe put us on wait list with same odds as lottery but a girl can dream.

Somehow I think pool hopping will be a no no lol..

Snap! Having just talked my DH out of getting a loan to buy a new car, I think my suggestion of financing an add-on at this stage may be met with contempt.

 

[nabi]

I was going to add some points then I remembered the small matter of having to pay for them and don't want a divorce when the credit card bill arrives. ....maybe put us on wait list with same odds as lottery but a girl can dream. Somehow I think pool hopping will be a no no lol..

Your spouse sees your credit card bill?!?! Mine would be too afraid to know the money that comes and goes.

 

[AmyB2006]

So, what's the deal? In the "I feel like a schmuck" thread, OP said their guide told them VGF goes on sale to current members only TODAY. Is this true? And at $145 a point.

 

[tjkraz]

I think if GFV is at $160 and resales are listed for $145, people will opt for direct b/c of the easier financing, and the perceived difference in "perks", and the easier process.

$15 per point on 200 points is $3000. There will absolutely be buyers willing to go resale to save that much money.

And again, the $15 spread was pretty commonplace until 4 years ago.

Consider this from the seller's POV. Imagine you personally buy VGF today at $145. In a year prices are upward of $150. You lose your job and have to sell. Yours is the only resale contract on the market. Would you really feel compelled to list for $105??? You only need ONE buyer. Do you really believe that not a single person would be willing to pay $135-140 and save $3k off direct prices?

I also think it's much easier to finance direct purchases when you're talking about these types of buy in prices, so there won't be a huge base of people who can afford to lay out enough to pay for a resale at $130-$140. While there is resale financing, I would hope folks are smarter than to tie up $30,000+ at 15% with pre-payment penalties.

Home equity loans are a common, low-rate approach to buying resale.

VGF was designed to be a luxury product. Pricing and financing doesn't have to be accessible to all.

I also agree with the other poster who said that VGC are not an equitable comparison b/c they're the only game in town. There is a lot more "competition" to drive prices down at WDW.

History has shown that buyers are ready, willing and able to pay a premium to own at a specific location...as witnessed by those happily spending $145 for VGF when they could get SSR or AKV for $70.

I also think you are under-estimating the supply side of VGF resales. BLT resales appeared very quickly--and in great numbers--due to the struggling economy in 2009 / 2010. That same economy produced few buyers. And once a prevailing price is set, it's a long, slow climb for that price to move upward.

As long as the economy merely holds steady, there will be a lot fewer VGF contracts hitting the resale market (again, 1/3 the size of BLT) and more interested buyers. There will be no reason for sellers to resort to fire sale pricing.

 

[tjkraz]

So, what's the deal? In the "I feel like a schmuck" thread, OP said their guide told them VGF goes on sale to current members only TODAY. Is this true? And at $145 a point.

Thursday 5/23 is the official on-sale date. Guides have been taking pre-orders from current owners. Those orders will be processed starting on Thursday.

Non-members (new DVC buyers) cannot buy until June 19 and the price will reportedly rise to $150 per point on that date.

 

[AmyB2006]

Thursday 5/23 is the official on-sale date. Guides have been taking pre-orders from current owners. Those orders will be processed starting on Thursday.

Non-members (new DVC buyers) cannot buy until June 19 and the price will reportedly rise to $150 per point on that date.

Thanks!

 

[Paula Sedley-Burke]

Snap! Having just talked my DH out of getting a loan to buy a new car, I think my suggestion of financing an add-on at this stage may be met with contempt.

Lol. Exactly. Now the real trick is to make out it's their idea.... Even appearing against it. And the oscar goes too... Lol

 

[ELMC]

Of course what do I know, I'm just speculating.

We all are, because it hasn't happened yet. The key is drawing on important facts of the past, looking at patterns and making inferences and predictions based on what you know. I think that VGF resale prices will track the same way as BLT and VGC due solely to the desire of the resort. (By this I mean that long term they will hover near initial offering prices, perhaps a bit lower). I am one of the biggest resale advocates on here, and even I am contemplating a small direct purchase of VGF. Why? Because my wife loves the resort, wants to stay there and I am not confident that we will be able to book at 7 months out. But I'm also a big "exit strategy" guy and if my predictions are correct, if we grow tired of it or find that we can book there at 7 months, I will be able to sell and get a large % of my money back. To me it's worth the risk.

The desirability of the resort and having the 11 month window goes a long way to determining demand and, as a result, resale prices. This can also explain why the resale prices for SSR and AKV are so low. The demand for VGF is there.

 

[Tinker mommy]

Lol. Exactly. Now the real trick is to make out it's their idea.... Even appearing against it. And the oscar goes too... Lol

Think of all the frequent flyer miles you can get with that credit card purchase!

 

[Paula Sedley-Burke]

Think of all the frequent flyer miles you can get with that credit card purchase!

Lol. Exactly it's virtually paid for itself...

 

[DVC Mike]

My wife pushed hard for a VGF add-on. I wavered a few times over the past few days - especially when my guide Maribella called me - but in the end I held fast and we decided not to do a VGF add-on.

In terms of a resort that is convenient to the MK, I think BLT offers more than VGF. I can walk to the MK from BLT, but am limited to monorail and boat at VGF, both of which can get crowded. Many times I have seen the monorail pull into the GF with standing room, and it takes a while to get back from the MK on the monorail.

As for views, I can see the castle from my theme park view room at BLT, but won't be able to from VGF. Yes, there may be some nice lagoon view rooms at VGF, which will be nicer than the lake view rooms at BLT (maybe).

I can stay at BLT and take the monorail over to the GF to dine there, so I can't seem to come up with a compelling reason to buy there. BLT has lower per-trip point usage and lower MF.

I have a lot of points at both BLT and BWV, which (to me) gives me a great MK resort and a great Epcot/DHS resort.

I'll be among the masses of non-VGF owners looking to book at the 7-month window.
_

 

[cseca]

My wife pushed hard for a VGF add-on. I wavered a few times over the past few days - especially when my guide Maribella called me - but in the end I held fast and we decided not to do a VGF add-on.

In terms of a resort that is convenient to the MK, I think BLT offers more than VGF. I can walk to the MK from BLT, but am limited to monorail and boat at VGF, both of which can get crowded. Many times I have seen the monorail pull into the GF with standing room, and it takes a while to get back from the MK on the monorail.

As for views, I can see the castle from my theme park view room at BLT, but won't be able to from VGF. Yes, there may be some nice lagoon view rooms at VGF, which will be nicer than the lake view rooms at BLT (maybe).

I can stay at BLT and take the monorail over to the GF to dine there, so I can't seem to come up with a compelling reason to buy there. BLT has lower per-trip point usage and lower MF.

I have a lot of points at both BLT and BWV, which (to me) gives me a great MK resort and a great Epcot/DHS resort.

I'll be among the masses of non-VGF owners looking to book at the 7-month window.
_

I'm on the same boat... I posted a question a couple days ago to see if anyone has come up with a reason which would tip me over the other side.
So far nothing yet... I was hoping tho...

 

[Sammie]

If I could justify the cost and forget that I have enough points as it is, I would so do this in a heartbeat.

Due to me it's not about the location as yes BLT as for as access to the park has a better location.

I don't think the views are better, but that is personal opinion.

I just love everything about the Grand and would be there 24/7.

Oh well, back to buying lottery tickets.