Villas at the Grand Floridian Presale to Begin May 25th?

[cseca]

Man I am so tempted to buy VGF right now but I know if I wait just a couple of years, I can get a resale for 1/3 less.

Oh what to dooooo!!!

That is most likely true but remember that resales will test your patience ... From the searching, putting in offers, waiting for response, ROFR, to the point of getting your points
Plus who knows what the price points will be in - couple of years. They could up direct to $175 and drive the resales up to the $145 right where we are now.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not advocating buying now at all but I just want to pass on my experience.

We had bought GCV at an avg of $96/pt direct. I was hemming and hawing about adding on. Now we could not find ANY points in our UY that is priced close to that.... sigh...
Hindsight I would have added on in a heartbeat ...
Or should've added on during the recession ... LOL!

I am comparing both resorts because they are both the smallest resorts in DVC portfolio and are similar in being located at the flagship resort on both coasts.
The main difference of course FL having a lot more options on DVC resorts while CA only has one.

Good luck on your decision!

 

[tjkraz]

Man I am so tempted to buy VGF right now but I know if I wait just a couple of years, I can get a resale for 1/3 less.

Not so sure about that.

The low water mark for VGF looks like it will be $145. In a couple years, direct prices will at least be in the $160s (IMO.)

Do you really think sellers will feel compelled to list in the $90-100 range??? Why would they?

Also, availability of contracts should be taken into consideration. VGF is nearly 1/3 the size of Bay Lake. Unless something happens with the economy, I suspect the number of contracts changing hands will be quite small for several years to come.

 

[Tinker mommy]

We are owners at VGC and I agree with other comments in this string, that if VGF is anything like VGC, you need the home resort advantage to get reservations. Particularly if you have children in school like we do and are limited in the dates when you can take vacation. We have been closed out of staying at our own home resort at VGC the last two trips we took to DL as it was already booked. My advice - if you have kids in school and want to stay at VGC, you will probably need to buy some points there as it will be a feeding frenzy at 7 months to try and get anything that may be leftover after the home resort bookings are complete.

 

[DenLo]

. . . .
So what you're saying is that the majority of rooms will initially be able to be booked through CRO?

The initial declaration for VGF has already been filed and it appears that it declares all all of the 6 GVs and all rooms on floors 1 - 4. That means only 26 2BR vacation homes are not for DVC use. Except in practice DVC has taken the number points that represent their ownership and sends over an appropriate number of rooms which could include a GV or two if they want it. If OCR can rent a GV for a much higher amount that the 2BR they might go that route. Hoping to sell more DVC memberships down the road. Another glitch if the points for the declared have not all been sold DVD can ship them OCR for reservations too as DVD owns those points. In practice once the points have been declared DVD has permitted members to reserve the same number of declared rooms. But DVD is not required to do that. We will just have to wait and see what DVD decides to do.

I'm hoping they leave the declared rooms as DVC rooms and give members a chance to try them out during DVC's busy reservation period.

.

 

[shortypots]

Im curious about any incentives too. Am considering buying 100 pts.

 

[mjc2003]

Do you really think sellers will feel compelled to list in the $90-100 range??? Why would they?

For the same reason Blt now sells direct for $165 while resales are in the 90-100 range. People won't pay .90 cents on the dollar for a resale contract, even if direct prices in a few years are near $160 the resales won't be more than in the low $100s.
For every sound buyer there is one over leveraged. All these discussions about financing are making my head spin; financing a five figure purchase of the most discretionary kind is lost on me, but to each their own, but there will be plenty who falter under the weight of these payments and will give them up. Resale prices are unilaterally ball parking 50-70% of the retail price across all resorts, there's no indication this would be any different. The only thing compelling them to sell at those prices will be getting out from under their payments.

Also, availability of contracts should be taken into consideration. VGF is nearly 1/3 the size of Bay Lake. Unless something happens with the economy, I suspect the number of contracts changing hands will be quite small for several years to come.

Agreed. But they will be there, eventually.

 

[cseca]

For the same reason Blt now sells direct for $165 while resales are in the 90-100 range. People won't pay .90 cents on the dollar for a resale contract, even if direct prices in a few years are near $160 the resales won't be more than in the low $100s.
For every sound buyer there is one over leveraged. All these discussions about financing are making my head spin; financing a five figure purchase of the most discretionary kind is lost on me, but to each their own, but there will be plenty who falter under the weight of these payments and will give them up. Resale prices are unilaterally ball parking 50-70% of the retail price across all resorts, there's no indication this would be any different. The only thing compelling them to sell at those prices will be getting out from under their payments.



Agreed. But they will be there, eventually.

Again,
I'm not advocating the purchase of GFV now but if you think about it BLT started with high 90s to 100s/pt (direct) ... so from 2009 until now the price is pretty steady (granted Disney upped their direct prices many MANY times to keep resale price steady).
I see no reason why DVC won't do the same with GFV. Which means in a couple or 4 years or x years you can still buy GFV resales for the same amt of $ now buying it direct and with less benefit.

Again... not saying this scenario will definitely happen but that was the history with BLT...
Talking about GCV that's a totally different ballgame (even though they are in a pretty similar situation - flagship, small quantity).
I can sell my contracts right now and make money out of it.
Wish I had bought more... LOL!!!

 

[tjkraz]

People won't pay .90 cents on the dollar for a resale contract...

Maybe not .90 cents but sellers would be foolish to ask .65 cents.

As cseca points out, the primary reasons BLT resales settled in the $90s were the poor state of the economy and the fact that DVC's lowest offering price was around $93 per point.

Today the economy is much better than it was in 2009 and the lowest VGF offering price will be $145.

You are correct that many buyers are overextended. But that will also play a role in asking prices. A buyer who puts 10% down on VGF and finances at 11.5% will not be paying down the principle quickly. On a 200 pt purchase, the buyer will still owe $22,900 on the loan, or $114.50 per point. Factor in broker commission and they'll need to get $127 per point just to walk away.

In terms of size, a better parallel to VGF is the Grand Californian. VGC started selling in January 2009--4.5 years ago. Today if you peruse the reseller listings you won't find more than a half-dozen contracts and most of those are sale pending. Asking prices range from $115-125. Relative scarcity of VGF contracts should help resale prices for that resort, too.

Five years ago, it was commonplace for the disparity between direct and resale prices to be in the $15 per point neighborhood. The glut of contracts hitting the market during the recession, combined with DVC's overbuilding at SSR and AKV pushed prices to new lows. But that phenomenon will not necessarily repeat itself.

You said nobody would pay .90 cents on the dollar for VGF in a few years. My question is why WOULDN'T they?? If 2015 rolls around and DVC is asking upward of $160 per point, why wouldn't someone buy a resale contract for $135-140? The banked / borrowed point status of the contract will play a role. But if the resale contract is relatively equal to what DVC offers, those prices will still save $4000-5000 off of direct prices on a 200 pt contract. There should absolutely be buyers at that rate. The convenience of buying direct isn't worth $4-5k.

 

[ELMC]

I also would like to add that we are dealing with the initial offering price of $145, where as BLT was closer to $100. I don't think it's fair to compare the two in terms of price per point when speculating where the resale market will be for VGF. Also, taking the current BLT price of $165 and comparing that to the resale price point is not a fair comparison either. However, the two resorts do share a lot of similarities, and unlike AKV I think that the resale prices will hover somewhere around the initial offering price.

 

[disneynutz]

I also would like to add that we are dealing with the initial offering price of $145, where as BLT was closer to $100. I don't think it's fair to compare the two in terms of price per point when speculating where the resale market will be for VGF. Also, taking the current BLT price of $165 and comparing that to the resale price point is not a fair comparison either. However, the two resorts do share a lot of similarities, and unlike AKV I think that the resale prices will hover somewhere around the initial offering price.

My notes from 2008 has BLT's price at $112 per point with $5 incentive credit making it $107. We bought in June of 2009 at $104 per point with a 7 day cruise. BLT opened in September of 2009 if I remember correctly.

Bill

 

[tjkraz]

My notes from 2008 has BLT's price at $112 per point with $5 incentive credit making it $107. We bought in June of 2009 at $104 per point with a 7 day cruise. BLT opened in September of 2009 if I remember correctly.

Bill

Sounds about right. In lieu of the free Disney Cruise, buyers could also opt for an extra $8 per point savings. That took BLT down as low as $96 per point.

Assuming $145 does end up being the lowest price ever offered at VGF, it will be $49 per point HIGHER than BLT's lowest direct price.

 

[DebbieB]

I always said the only thing that would make me give up my BWV is GF. But not at these prices. The 250 BWV points that I paid $14,750 in 1999 would be $36,250 at GF! And the per night points are about 50% higher.

 

[sndral]

You are correct that many buyers are overextended. But that will also play a role in asking prices. A buyer who puts 10% down on VGF and finances at 11.5% will not be paying down the principle quickly. On a 200 pt purchase, the buyer will still owe $22,900 on the loan, or $114.50 per point. Factor in broker commission and they'll need to get $127 per point just to walk away.

In terms of size, a better parallel to VGF is the Grand Californian. VGC started selling in January 2009--4.5 years ago. Today if you peruse the reseller listings you won't find more than a half-dozen contracts and most of those are sale pending. Asking prices range from $115-125. Relative scarcity of VGF contracts should help resale prices for that resort, too.

Setting asking prices aside, as many overextended house buyers recently discovered, profit or even break even isn't baked in the cake. It's a question of supply and demand, if demand isn't there, then selling at a loss may be better than continuing to make payments and pay MFs.
Which brings me to my question about demand, VGC is the only DVC option for staying at DL, thus it is a very limited product w/ very high demand. VGF's DVC units will be just one set of many DVC units available for stays at WDW, so to my mind VGC is not a good comparison because the supply side of the equation is so different for VGC v. VGF. When I add in the future Poly DVC opening there'll eventually be 3 monorail DVC resorts going forward and thus more supply. I would think the smaller DVC's @ WDW would be better comparisons (VWL and BC) than VGC - but they were offered so long ago and ROFR was much more actively being excercised that it's hard to compare them.

 

[awilliams4]

My notes from 2008 has BLT's price at $112 per point with $5 incentive credit making it $107. We bought in June of 2009 at $104 per point with a 7 day cruise. BLT opened in September of 2009 if I remember correctly.

Bill

We purchased BLT in June 2009 direct at $96 per point. 260 total.

 

[awilliams4]

Sounds about right. In lieu of the free Disney Cruise, buyers could also opt for an extra $8 per point savings. That took BLT down as low as $96 per point.

Assuming $145 does end up being the lowest price ever offered at VGF, it will be $49 per point HIGHER than BLT's lowest direct price.

I recall a few getting it at $94 a couple of months after I purchased in 6/2009. I believe that was the lowest direct price offered for BLT.

 

[ELMC]

Sounds about right. In lieu of the free Disney Cruise, buyers could also opt for an extra $8 per point savings. That took BLT down as low as $96 per point.

Assuming $145 does end up being the lowest price ever offered at VGF, it will be $49 per point HIGHER than BLT's lowest direct price.

And yet if reports are accurate, this will be the lowest it will ever be. A bit scary, I think. But it would seem that if you wanted to own, and didn't want to wait 3-4 years for resales to pop up, that this would be the time.

 

[DisneyMomJen]

I recall a few getting it at $94 a couple of months after I purchased in 6/2009. I believe that was the lowest direct price offered for BLT.

We paid $89 a point through a webcast offer.

 

[CaliforniaDreaming]

I always said the only thing that would make me give up my BWV is GF. But not at these prices. The 250 BWV points that I paid $14,750 in 1999 would be $36,250 at GF! And the per night points are about 50% higher.

After looking at the numbers (over, and over, and over again) I think we're in the same boat. It just seems so hard to justify, especially the amount of points we'd need for an annual trip to VGF. I think we're better off staying with what we have and paying cash (with discounts) if we need a resort stay.

 

[lilpooh108]

Again,
I'm not advocating the purchase of GFV now but if you think about it BLT started with high 90s to 100s/pt (direct) ... so from 2009 until now the price is pretty steady (granted Disney upped their direct prices many MANY times to keep resale price steady).
I see no reason why DVC won't do the same with GFV. Which means in a couple or 4 years or x years you can still buy GFV resales for the same amt of $ now buying it direct and with less benefit.

Again... not saying this scenario will definitely happen but that was the history with BLT...
Talking about GCV that's a totally different ballgame (even though they are in a pretty similar situation - flagship, small quantity).
I can sell my contracts right now and make money out of it.
Wish I had bought more... LOL!!!

I actually agree with this. I'm all for resale and saving money, but Aulani is selling now (esp the subsidized contracts) at what it was during presales. I should have added on more at Aulani back in the day. We originally did a small add on, and before we signed the papers we decided to increase our small add on into a "medium" add on. Wish I just sucked it up then and bumped it up even higher. Oh well.

For VGF I doubt it will: (1) be easy to find a small add on via resale in your UY; and (2) for direct sales go lower than the baseline of $145/pt, assuming you don't intend on ever buying more than 100 pts, so no incentives.

That's why I want to wait to buy until I'm on the cruise -- with absolutely no incentives, maybe on the cruise they will at least offer OBC.

 

[cseca]

... I would think the smaller DVC's @ WDW would be better comparisons (VWL and BC) than VGC - but they were offered so long ago and ROFR was much more actively being excercised that it's hard to compare them.

Comparing the GFV with VWL (I don't own at BCV so I have no experience looking at the resales history) I think would garner similar result.

VWL was sold in 2001 (I think), I bought on the first day it was offered.
Now 12 years later I can still sell my contract probably for how much I purchased it... which means I will lose the commission of course. But considering we have used it for 12 years losing 10% for commission doesn't sound so bad.
So the price has pretty much been steady... very similar to BLT only comparing 4yrs to 12 yrs.