VGF resale pricing

[Cyberc1978]

So with the new VGF2 coming what to expect with the resale pricing at VGF?

Currently I see pricing close to $200 or more pp - frankly it’s seems insane. I bought in a year ago at $145 and if I could make $55 pp it would be tempting just to sell it.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

I had similar thoughts after seeing a $200+ listing today that it might be possible to sell now and buy back for similar when they reopen sales for VGF and get a backpack or maybe to take a chance on booking at 7 months. But I doubt I will.

 

[Cyberc1978]

It’s real tempting if you can actually sell for that price.
I originally got the contract to stay there but with 200 studios coming I’m not thinking it will be a breeze to get a room but it will be much easier I guess.

 

[macman123]

Im a realse owner and wonder the same.

I have paid $165pp, $180pp and $185pp.

Looking back now sure if I have overpaid.......

 

[Cyberc1978]

Im a realse owner and wonder the same.

I have paid $165pp, $180pp and $185pp.

Looking back now sure if I have overpaid.......

Because of the VGF2 you expect the resale prices to come down?

 

[Matty B13]

I know we were possible thinking of adding on to our VGF points, either resale or direct before the VGF 2.0 announcement. But now we will just wait it out to see what the pricing comes in at with incentives for point around the 100 to 125 point range. Right now resale prices for VGF 1.0 are way out of control and to close to direct pricing. Also since it won't be a small resort anymore the premium for it, a little like GCV, is gone and now the pricing should be around where Poly is.

 

[stwaldman]

Im a realse owner and wonder the same.

I have paid $165pp, $180pp and $185pp.

Looking back now sure if I have overpaid.......

i mean, it depends on the value you put in having direct points vs. resale points and how much you needed those points when you bought them vs. if they were stripped contracts you aren't using yet anyway.

Even the lowest speculation of VGF pricing has it matching RIV pricing, which means you arent going to get points at any of the prices you listed. Also it seems like VGF will go on sale no sooner than late this year and more likely early next year, so expect RIV direct pricing to increase by $5-10 as in previous years. So from a pure cash out the door per point perspective, you may not be that much worse off (unless you really care about booking RIV, which to each their own, some people def do!).

If VGF is actully sold in the low 210s or 220s, yeah I agree you probably will see those resale contracts dip a little bit *while its being actively sold*, probably closer to BLT or Poly prices from a few months ago (maybe a *bit* lower) while the resort is on sale. But once it sells out and direct prices revert, you may see VGF recover in value.

 

[stwaldman]

i mean, it depends on the value you put in having direct points vs. resale points and how much you needed those points when you bought them vs. if they were stripped contracts you aren't using yet anyway.

Even the lowest speculation of VGF pricing has it matching RIV pricing, which means you arent going to get points at any of the prices you listed. Also it seems like VGF will go on sale no sooner than late this year and more likely early next year, so expect RIV direct pricing to increase by $5-10 as in previous years. So from a pure cash out the door per point perspective, you may not be that much worse off (unless you really care about booking RIV, which to each their own, some people def do!).

If VGF is actully sold in the low 210s or 220s, yeah I agree you probably will see those resale contracts dip a little bit *while its being actively sold*, probably closer to BLT or Poly prices from a few months ago (maybe a *bit* lower) while the resort is on sale. But once it sells out and direct prices revert, you may see VGF recover in value.

i guess tl;dr yeah maybe there's a slight dip between the current spike in prices and the prices projecting out 2022-2024 or 2025, but i dont think (hope i dont eat these words) you're going to start seeign VGF resale drop below 140s or 150s, where ultimately we're talking a fairly small overpay, unless you bought a several hundred point contract, in which case yeah that might be real crummy timing.

 

[macman123]

Because of the VGF2 you expect the resale prices to come down?

Yes. At present its a small resort and value in booking 11 months out. With an influx of 200 studios, it wont have the same unique booking window.

Hence, I think with the glut of new points, the re-sale value would decrease.

Unless you think I am wrong?

 

[macman123]

If VGF is actully sold in the low 210s or 220s, yeah I agree you probably will see those resale contracts dip a little bit *while its being actively sold*, probably closer to BLT or Poly prices from a few months ago (maybe a *bit* lower) while the resort is on sale. But once it sells out and direct prices revert, you may see VGF recover in value.

Yes, I agree. But Im not sure they would sell less for current direct. I think they will have it at $255pp direct, as it is now - but maybe with some incentives taking it down $20pp

 

[stwaldman]

Yes, I agree. But Im not sure they would sell less for current direct. I think they will have it at $255pp direct, as it is now - but maybe with some incentives taking it down $20pp

Yeah, I'm presenting the "worst fact pattern for resale" to show I think the floor here is still about what poly is settling at, since ultimately VGF will still have fewer units than poly but the benefit of more room types and no bungalows. Selling at a price similar to CCV direct seems like a sensible price point all things considered, which is about what you're describing.

 

[RoseGold]

I bought in the 150s. I’m apparently in the minority, but I think Disney is going to go hard on this price. I love this crazy pricing because hopefully I can break even in ten years.

 

[macman123]

I bought in the 150s. I’m apparently in the minority, but I think Disney is going to go hard on this price. I love this crazy pricing because hopefully I can break even in ten years.

You mean hard as in like $180pp or $255pp?

 

[mustinjourney]

I can't imagine the resale pricing not dropping. I don't think they can sell VGF in large quantities (2 million points) at $255. It's going to have to be at the RIV range for them to be able to move those points in any appreciable manner. So basically same pricing as RIV (maybe slightly higher) -- but no incentives.

And this means that resale prices will likely come down b/c no logical person will pay an almost equal amount for resale points when they could just get direct and have their points same day.

Lastly -- with another 1.5 to 2 million points added to the VGF system -- within a couple years, there will be more supply of VGF contracts just b/c there are more people in the VGF system. That alone will likely cause the pricing to drop...unless of course the demand for VGF increases to match the increased supply.

 

[macman123]

Lastly -- with another 1.5 to 2 million points added to the VGF system -- within a couple years, there will be more supply of VGF contracts just b/c there are more people in the VGF system. That alone will likely cause the pricing to drop...unless of course the demand for VGF increases to match the increased supply.

Ah, that makes sense - supply and demand. I suspect with pent up demand for a lack of international travel, there may just well be able to justify the price.

But I guess that is the key - what will they pitch it at?

I was going to buy 200 RIV but now in two minds given VGF2.

 

[Matty B13]

Isn't the current minimum for new members 125 points? If this is held for VGF 2.0 then that makes a first time buyer have to plunk down over $32,000.00 at $255/point. How many people are going to just do that on a whim during a vacation???? Even at $200/point that over $25,0000.00 which isn't anything to sneeze at either, especially if you just spent $5000.00 to $10,000.00 on your Disney vacation.

 

[Sandisw]

Isn't the current minimum for new members 125 points? If this is held for VGF 2.0 then that makes a first time buyer have to plunk down over $32,000.00 at $255/point. How many people are going to just do that on a whim during a vacation???? Even at $200/point that over $25,0000.00 which isn't anything to sneeze at either, especially if you just spent $5000.00 to $10,000.00 on your Disney vacation.

I agree and while I know some people believe VGF is hands down better than RIV, I just don’t think it’s going to be priced that high over it,

One thing telling for me is that they removed it from the add on tool. Why do that if they were going to keep the price the same? Just let people still add.

I think the reason we will see VGF go back down when this goes on sale is because they will lower the price and It won’t make sense to go resale for new buyers when direct...and it’s benefits...is not much more.

It will be interesting to see when the info comes out which camp is right!

 

[BWV Dreamin]

I had similar thoughts after seeing a $200+ listing today that it might be possible to sell now and buy back for similar when they reopen sales for VGF and get a backpack or maybe to take a chance on booking at 7 months. But I doubt I will.

That back pack is pretty awesome …

 

[princesscinderella]

I agree and while I know some people believe VGF is hands down better than RIV, I just don’t think it’s going to be priced that high over it,

One thing telling for me is that they removed it from the add on tool. Why do that if they were going to keep the price the same? Just let people still add.

I think the reason we will see VGF go back down when this goes on sale is because they will lower the price and It won’t make sense to go resale for new buyers when direct...and it’s benefits...is not much more.

It will be interesting to see when the info comes out which camp is right!

I think your theory is correct. I don’t think they will offer incentives initially, like they didn’t when it first went on sale but I don’t think it will be $255 either. My guess is $205, maybe $200 early buy in for existing members.

 

[Tiggerette]

If Disney wants to come up with creative direct buy incentives.... how about early booking window for Signature restaurants attached to the resort?

A VGF direct buy could mean an early booking window for say.... Victoria & Alberts. (Or whatever goes in that space if V&A doesn't come back.)

I'm in agreement with the thought processes that resale will dip with the inclusion of the studios. I also appreciate the argument that it might recover over time. The prices we're seeing now seem to be way over what is sustainable when a whole new inventory of studios comes into frame.