VGF any effect on Resale?

[kedkin]

I was planning on adding on at AKV through the resale market and was wondering if a new property is being offered might that lower prices in the resale market? More people dumping points? Did anything happen when BLT was first offered?

 

[RobynPrincess]

I would be interested in knowing this too

 

[JimMIA]

This is obviously anybody's guess, but my guess is it will have some effect. I would expect some owners to "trade up" to Grand Floridian. There was a good bit of that when BLT opened.

In addition to the location advantage, I think the fixed week option will appeal to a particular subset of prospective buyers -- particularly those who want to visit during the holidays. It will be more expensive, but for some the added expense will be worth it.

The downside is that the MFs are middle-of-the-pack. When BLT sales opened, one of the selling points was significantly lower MFs. BLT's MFs are still almost a dollar a point lower that GF.

ETA: AKV is one resort where I would expect some movement. If a family wasn't fully satisfied at AKV, they could sell that and buy GF and lower their per point MFs a little. They'd take a hit on the resale, especially if they initially bought direct (and maybe a severe hit if they bought direct recently), but over time slightly lower MFs would offset some of that.

 

[AJA]

This is our opinion and guess, yes it will have some effect, how much will it affect resale pricing? And how long before it affects pricing is anyone's guess right now.

It could lower prices as more contracts start showing up on the resale market for those that want to sell their current home and purchase at the GF. Or maybe raise prices on the cheaper resorts as people reason they can buy inexpensive properties and use the points in the off season to stay at GF.

DH and I have decided now is a good time for us to sell our larger points contract (we've been thinking about it for a while anyway) and purchase two smaller contracts, one at our current home and one at BLT. We're hoping the prices decrease a little for BLT as now there's another monorail DVC resort? Maybe more BLT contracts will start showing up on the resale market so we can do this? We're not in a hurry to repurchase as we just returned from our trip this year and by next summer hopefully we'll have purchased at least one contract and be able to make a trip even if we need to borrow points from the following year.

No matter what it will be interesting to see what does happen!

 

[kedkin]

I'm not really in any hurry to buy now either, theres just some contracts out there now that I could jump on but am willing to wait if there's more of a chance that more contracts go up and I could get them cheaper.

 

[McCrae]

I don't think it will have any major impact.

Very few people know about the resale market and I would be surprised if a large number of the few who do would do this.

It doesn't make a lot of sense to try and trade up unless you can make a profit from resale.

With the economy improving I can see no reason why resale prices will not continue to go up.

 

[NoleFan]

From what I have read, resale prices are high right now but the gap between direct vs. resale is the largest ever. Will resale continue to increase so the gap is not quite as much? The only thing I have noticed this week is more larger contracts (200+ points) out there. Coincidence? I am also curious to see how the resale market will trend.

 

[Nabas]

I was planning on adding on at AKV through the resale market and was wondering if a new property is being offered might that lower prices in the resale market? More people dumping points? Did anything happen when BLT was first offered?

Right now I wouldn't expect VGF to have much of an effect on resales. Obviously, someone buying new into VGF at $145/point is not (generally) in the same market as someone who is trying to score a resale bargain at (for example) AKV.

I understand the theory that some will "trade up", i.e. sell their current DVC and buy at VGF, but my gut (nothing else) tells me there won't be that many doing so.

I realize those of us who post here are DVC veterans but I'm still of the opinion most direct sales come from impulse buyers vacationing at a Disney resort. Those buyers often don't know what "resale" is. They're buying at VGF, AKV, or Aulani.

IMHO, VGF is much more likely to impact direct sales at AKV. AKV still has about 900K points left to sell while VGF has (I've read) 2.5M.