Using more expensive points at cheaper resorts

[cedricandsophie]

We have 1400 points at seven resorts including aulani. Most of the points we bought resale. We bought at the resorts we like but rarely do I make reservations 11 months out except for animal kingdom club level which you must reserve 11 months. For aulani we go in may so we never have a problem getting our one bedroom ocean view at even less than seven months so I can combine aulani points with other points. However if you want to go between June and August or at spring break you really need to book at 11 months with aulani points.

 

[Disney Dad ADL]

I think part of the joy and downfall of DVC or atleast the people who care enough about it to post here is it draws planners and tinkerers. Every plan and idea I come up with or others give me here has equal downsides as ups.
Last night in my buying ALunai and SSR research Google prompted me with a Disney promotion of 30% off a 5 day stay a 150 dollar resort credit- a daily meal at one of the restaurant and free memory maker.

I think the only monetary value in DVC is if you buy SSR and are able to trade into basically any other resort- but being totally content on staying only at SSR every trip. That is not me I want to stay at all the resorts - maybe I should remain a renter/sale shopper for life.

I am staying at the Disney hotel in August just to check it out.

Ehh maybe one day I'll fall into a DVC deal.

That deal is for Aulani, right? I was looking at it that too since we are thinking of a trip there in November or December. I haven't actually run the numbers, but staying cash at Aulani on that deal is very close to the cost of renting DVC points I think. I will be using VGC points to stay there once my contract goes through, hopefully soon, and I think even using VGC points you come out a bit ahead.

Say you assume the worst case scenario and you buy expensive points (e.g. VGF), but stay at SSR everytime, do you still come out ahead?

I took a random week at SSR where I could find studio availability on cash. 11/12-11/19 is $2516 + $314.50 tax = $2830.50 for the week.

If you wanted to stay there on points, it's 98 points for the week (Choice season 14 points per night x 7 nights).

Say you buy 100 VGF points at $145 per point. Annual dues are $5.7119 per point. Assume that hotel costs and annual dues never increase.

100 VGF points x $145 = $14,500
VGF annual dues over the life of the contract (49 years) = $27,988
Total cost over life of contract = $42,488

Cash price for 1 week at SSR studio for 49 years = $138,695

As you mentioned, though, you can often get deals. 20% off is a pretty common one, so here are some other scenarios:

SSR Studio cash, full price = $138,695 (break even on year 8)
SSR Studio cash, 20% off = $110,956 (break even year 9)
SSR Studio cash, 30% off = $97,086.5 (break even year 11)
SSR Studio cash, 50% off = $69,347.5 (break even year 18)

100 VGF points, total cost = $42,488

DVC still looks pretty good if you use VGF points at SSR, IMO, unless you think you can get 50% off rack rates. It's rare (at least in the current environment) to get discounts at WDW as deep as that Aulani one, I wouldn't count on 30% off + free meals + $150 resort credits happening too often at WDW. I am not sure about Aulani, though. I'm guess cash looks a bit better there due to the better discounts, but I haven't looked that closely yet.

Edit: corrected SSR cost

 

[PSUDinsey]

That deal is for Aulani, right? I was looking at it that too since we are thinking of a trip there in November or December. I haven't actually run the numbers, but staying cash at Aulani on that deal is very close to the cost of renting DVC points I think. I will be using VGC points to stay there once my contract goes through, hopefully soon, and I think even using VGC points you come out a bit ahead.

Say you assume the worst case scenario and you buy expensive points (e.g. VGF), but stay at SSR everytime, do you still come out ahead?

I took a random week at SSR where I could find studio availability on cash. 11/12-11/19 is $2516 + $314.50 tax = $2830.50 for the week.

If you wanted to stay there on points, it's 98 points for the week (Choice season 14 points per night x 7 nights).

Say you buy 100 VGF points at $145 per point. Annual dues are $5.7119 per point. Assume that hotel costs and annual dues never increase.

100 VGF points x $145 = $14,500
VGF annual dues over the life of the contract (49 years) = $27,988
Total cost over life of contract = $42,488

Cash price for 1 week at SSR studio for 49 years = $138,695

As you mentioned, though, you can often get deals. 20% off is a pretty common one, so here are some other scenarios:

SSR Studio cash, full price = $138,695 (break even on year 8)
SSR Studio cash, 20% off = $110,956 (break even year 9)
SSR Studio cash, 30% off = $97,086.5 (break even year 11)
SSR Studio cash, 50% off = $69,347.5 (break even year 18)

100 VGF points, total cost = $42,488

DVC still looks pretty good if you use VGF points at SSR, IMO, unless you think you can get 50% off rack rates. It's rare (at least in the current environment) to get discounts at WDW as deep as that Aulani one, I wouldn't count on 30% off + free meals + $150 resort credits happening too often at WDW. I am not sure about Aulani, though. I'm guess cash looks a bit better there due to the better discounts, but I haven't looked that closely yet.

Edit: corrected SSR cost

Yes that is the Aulani deal-

I even redid your math with the rental price of a studio at SSR using 1400 and you still come out ahead purchasing $68600 basically 26k ahead.

Hmm ok swayed back to the other side of the fence now- off to look at resale prices.

 

[Disney Dad ADL]

Yes that is the Aulani deal-

I even redid your math with the rental price of a studio at SSR using 1400 and you still come out ahead purchasing $68600 basically 26k ahead.

Hmm ok swayed back to the other side of the fence now- off to look at resale prices.

IMO, buying DVC is a good decision if:
1. You use all your points over the next 8-10 years.
2. You can plan ahead
3. You want to stay at a deluxe resort
4. It is not a financial burden on you
5. You are buying at a WDW resort - VGC (even though we are buying there) is a bit questionable in value I think. You really need to buy in to the "Disney Experience" to buy there due to the cheap off-site options across the street from DLR. It just takes so many points to stay there. Aulani, as you mentioned, is also not as big a slam dunk as WDW at this moment (at first glance anyway, since I haven't really run the numbers), since it seems you can get pretty good discounts there, but I'm not sure if you can get discounts like that in the summer.

Ultimately, I say might as well go for it if you fit the criteria above with reasonable certainty. The only time I would be hesitant is if the amount of money for the buy-in and dues would cause a lot of stress for you. It's all about risk tolerance, I think. There's never going to be a 100% right answer. I would say odds are you're going to save money, but there's always a chance something goes wrong (you have an unexpected change of heart about Disney is probably going to be the most common thing). If 10 years from now, you look back and figure out that you could have saved $5000 by paying cash rather than going DVC, would that be financially or psychologically devastating to you? If you would be devastated, then maybe its not worth the risk. If you'd be really annoyed but would be OK financially, then go ahead .

Also, if you're on the fence, I would probably consider buying a WDW DVC first, then buying Aulani later on once you're more certain.