I don't think this is correct at all. They are delaying payment because such a large number of people would cancel as opposed to waiting for restrictions to change 15 times between PIF and Sail dates.
Also politics have zero to do with this either. This isnt politics its government policy (or legal limit of) which is very different from Party A vs Party B.
Based on what information? There is pretty much is zero information that points to cancelation.
Covid variants are going to happen, positive tests will happen on ships, and different levels of restrictions will happen (this has been predicted for months and should not be a suprise). Florida is and will remain the most open area which is the bulk of all cruising with Texas unlikely to ever lock down either being similar to Florida.
On top of this
DCL also seems to have the UK on board so European cruises can go ahead with possibly an expansion of ports by next summer.
Final note while some on this board love Carnival there needs to be a very large distinction on what policies were on other cruise lines that had issues with positive tests. As brought up in a thread about it they were around 70% or more full, no masking indoors (for vaccinated), and had poor social distancing per multiple reports (which makes sense with 70% or more capacity being filled).