Unofficial Gde Revises Predicted Attendence

[PortieOwner]

Not sure if anyone here noticed but the Unofficial Guide web site (Touringplans dot com) raised their predicted Fall attendence way up. Looks like September, rather than being a 2 (short waits for rides) is now a 4 or 5 all month which is fairly busy. How good are his predictions and how likely is September to be busy? Busier parks are no fun "off-season" since they are open less hours.

Portie

 

[michaelwilliammidd]

I imagine they probably boosted their Sept. attendence because of the Free Dining offer......I would think it would be a wait and see if it actually goes up that much or not.

 

[rgf207]

I was in WDW this past march when the attendance was rated at 5 or 6 and honestly the waits were not bad at all. We used the fast pass but we never waited more than 20 - 30 minutes for anything. I wouldn't worry about it. I am going in sept and I imagine that they upped the predictions because of the free dining and the Happiest Celebration

 

[eeyore45]

Keep in mind that lots of the projections are due in part to the levels of resorts occupancy... and we know from trying to get reservations for certain dates, even on expedia certain dates in the fall are sold out, so it would have to be at least a 5 imo

 

[DISNEYFAMILYOFFOUR]

Actually, they changed their September predictions quite a while ago--before the free dining package became open to the public.

 

[MomofKatie]

They changed the whole rating system for crowd predictions. Now, a 1-4 is considered "slow", with max afternoon wait times on the super headliner attractions of up to 45 minutes- which means that the avg wait times will be far less than that. Ratings of 5-8 are now considered "normal" and 9-10 are "busy".

What used to be a 2 or 3 rating now counts as a 4 or 5.

Hope that makes you feel better about the ratings! 4's, 5's and even 6's are still going to be pretty uncrowded.

 

[jfink12]

MomofKatie,

Where did you find the information on the "new" ratings and what they mean? Especially the what they mean part and why they changed it all.

And what does the fact that they changed all my days from 7 to 8 mean the first week of August?

Jeff

 

[the kabuki]

Take a look here for the explanation of how they determine crowd levels:
http://www.touringplans.com/BestDays.htm

This past Jan, our dates were listed as 2's or 3's . Now the same time in 2006 is listed as 4's or 5's

 

[MomofKatie]

MomofKatie,

Where did you find the information on the "new" ratings and what they mean? Especially the what they mean part and why they changed it all.

And what does the fact that they changed all my days from 7 to 8 mean the first week of August?

Jeff

Hi, Jeff- I got the info from the website the kabuki mentioned- it is the Unofficial Guide website. Click on the Revised "Best Days" link. It looks like Len Testa and gang have done a lot of work on the new rating system.

 

[daisy_77]

OP-
Thanks for the info!

 

[PortieOwner]

It also did sound like they were seeing higher attendance than they had predicted and they were working on their mathematical model to get it to predict better.

I sort of used to do forecasting for a living, and I think WDW attendance and resort vacancy rates are a better predictor of economic growth and activity than GDP rates and unemployment! WDW attendance drops seem to have tracked very accurately the past two recessions. Looks like we can expect at least another 6 months of boom.

BTW I have not been to WDW in 9 years and I always try to set aside money for WDW trips in good years so I can afford to go when there is a recession (and deals are better--I miss the Fall Fantasy package--$550 for 5 nights plus full breakfasts at Dixie Landings back in 1994 and $420 for 3 nights plus full breakfasts at Wilderness Lodge in 1996).

Portie

 

[blessedby3]

I looked through the whole chart and there are no days listed below a 4. What's up with that? I am hoping for low crowds the week after Thanksgiving.

 

[kilee]

First, toursim at Disney is finally back up. It's been in a slump ever since 9/11. Then you have the free dining package, and the resorts are very full this fall (unlike the last few years). Even airfare seems to be a bit more this year. All because people are traveling again. So, it would only be natural that the expected crowd levels would rise as well.

 

[kittythepoohbear]

Eeeek! I love going in Sept. because you get great weather and less crowds. I have been a little nervous hearing about the resorts being sold out and everyone rushing to make AR's due to the free dining. Now I am wondering how crowded WDW will truly be during the fall. The last few times I have gone, I have not had to wait more than 10 minutes for anything! I guess I got spoiled!

Kat

The funky dancing banana!!!

 

[civileng68]

Not sure if anyone here noticed but the Unofficial Guide web site (Touringplans dot com) raised their predicted Fall attendence way up. Looks like September, rather than being a 2 (short waits for rides) is now a 4 or 5 all month which is fairly busy. How good are his predictions and how likely is September to be busy? Busier parks are no fun "off-season" since they are open less hours.

Portie

If it gets busy they will increase their hours. Also note that if hours are not increased on the schedule, they can be increased THAT day DURING the day.

We were there MANY times when the MK had an 8:00 closing and 3 hours before closing they extended hours. They normally won't announce it and you just have to ask a CM. They just keep the park open longer and only announce it on the trams coming in the park.

 

[Fast Pass]

Let's not forget that some people who received the free dining will only be getting a one day base ticket. Predicting the crowd level in September based on resort occupancy will/is going to be very hard if not impossible to predict.