Understanding blackout day crowds?

[ShaunaM]

So I plugged in 14 different arrival days for August and then I looked at the blackout days for passes . I am trying to glean what I can from those numbers. DLH was at its most expensive on the days that are blacked for SoCal passes. I was not sure how to interpret this would you anticipate higher crowds even though the hotel is showing cheaper SoCal passes are allowed or lower crowds on those days?my head is hurting trying to figure out .lol

 

[ImDMous]

In general, passes are blocked on days that are expected to be busy. Moderately busy days, only the lowest passes are blocked. Exceptionally busy days, all but the highest passes are blocked. The first few days after a long pass block ends are a bit more crowded because they can all come back but for the most part passholders are not all there at the same time and generally don't like to be in the park when it's crowded anyway.

 

[Skyegirl1999]

I'd avoid the first few days when the SoCal passes get back in. They're usually notably more crowded than the surrounding days. Otherwise, the APs don't make a huge impact on August dates; it has much more to do with school schedules.

 

[ShaunaM]

What confused me was that I had understood Black Out Days to be on busier days which is what it seems you have all said. Where I became confused was I understood room rates would also rise depending on availability, so I interpreted higher room rates to be busier days. So if I'm understanding correctly I should ignore the blackout days only so far as to not go immediately after it's been lifted and then I guess just pick my days on price and Haunted Mansion will be a factor for our family as well.

 

[agamble]

It's a hard decision. It's going to be busy no matter what. If they're blocked it's because it's peak season, in your case summer break. But in August when they are first unblocked a lot of people come to the parks who have been unable to come all summer. I would just pick the days that work best for you and when you can get the best price. Then just expect it to be busy.

 

[Skyegirl1999]

"DLH was at its most expensive on the days that are blacked for SoCal passes."

^^ Right. Blackout day = busier = more expensive. Unless you had a typo somewhere, this seems to make sense?

 

[ShaunaM]

I think what threw me is that I always understood the blackout days could be busier but likewise I had it in the back of my mind to avoid days where soCal passes were allowed again and I guess that piece didn't match up in my brain. Hotel prices did come down when the passes opened up but in my mind passes opening up also meant busier days if that makes any sense. Ugh...a crystal ball would be lovely. Thanks everyone. ..

 

[SMD]

When people are staying for a whole week they don't really have to be as concerned with scattered block outs or the days when APs become unblocked because the crazy days get absorbed in a larger trip. They can either skip a day that is likely to be extra crowded or make a good plan. You're never going to get find multiple days with the same conditions in the same week outside of major holiday weeks, things are just change too quickly at DLR now.

 

[ShaunaM]

When people are staying for a whole week they don't really have to be as concerned with scattered block outs or the days when APs become unblocked because the crazy days get absorbed in a larger trip. They can either skip a day that is likely to be extra crowded or make a good plan. You're never going to get find multiple days with the same conditions in the same week outside of major holiday weeks, things are just change too quickly at DLR now.

Big picture ..makes sense thanks!

 

[Skyegirl1999]

I think what threw me is that I always understood the blackout days could be busier but likewise I had it in the back of my mind to avoid days where soCal passes were allowed again and I guess that piece didn't match up in my brain. Hotel prices did come down when the passes opened up but in my mind passes opening up also meant busier days if that makes any sense. Ugh...a crystal ball would be lovely. Thanks everyone. ..

I think that the SoCal passholders in particular are much more unlikely to stay at the hotels. So they probably impact park attendance much more than hotel pricing.

You really never know these days, and even if you picked the "perfect" day based on the information now, there could still be a special event or weather condition that completely changes things! Plan for big crowds and just roll with it. I hope you have a great time!

 

[Leopardstars]

Disney blacks out more APs when they expect the largest tourist crowds. This is their way of trying to bring the crowd levels down so they don't exceed park capacity. More tourists, especially those outside SoCal, equals more demand for hotels. That in turn increases the cost per night for a room. So if you are looking at August when many kids are on summer break and families can travel, then the price is higher is higher. There are still many schools who don't start their school year until just before or right after Labor Day.

Also the hotel stay for some (not all) are less then the tourists. Since I have to fly, I need a hotel the night before we go to the parks and the night of our last day in the parks. Depending on where they are coming from and how often they visit, many tourists will add day trips to Universal Studios, LA tors and San Diego while using their DLR hotel as a home bases. All of this increases demand and drives up the price.

I hope this explains why AP blackout dates, especially when schools are out, doesn't equal lower hotel prices.

 

[Angrose]

Over the past few years I have seen really good onsite hotel rates for the last few weeks in August. The discounts will come out sometime in June. Get on the Disney mailing list to be notified when that happens. There's no guarantee that the will ten the same discounts, but if you book now, you can call and have the discount applied when it comes out.

 

[ShaunaM]

Over the past few years I have seen really good onsite hotel rates for the last few weeks in August. The discounts will come out sometime in June. Get on the Disney mailing list to be notified when that happens. There's no guarantee that the will ten the same discounts, but if you book now, you can call and have the discount applied when it comes out.

I wondered about that. ..I know in past years I thought I had seen august discounts. .but as we were not going my attention was fleeting. THANKS

 

[ShaunaM]

Disney blacks out more APs when they expect the largest tourist crowds. This is their way of trying to bring the crowd levels down so they don't exceed park capacity. More tourists, especially those outside SoCal, equals more demand for hotels. That in turn increases the cost per night for a room. So if you are looking at August when many kids are on summer break and families can travel, then the price is higher is higher. There are still many schools who don't start their school year until just before or right after Labor Day.

Also the hotel stay for some (not all) are less then the tourists. Since I have to fly, I need a hotel the night before we go to the parks and the night of our last day in the parks. Depending on where they are coming from and how often they visit, many tourists will add day trips to Universal Studios, LA tors and San Diego while using their DLR hotel as a home bases. All of this increases demand and drives up the price.

I hope this explains why AP blackout dates, especially when schools are out, doesn't equal lower hotel prices.

Thanks this helps.