TSMM Wait Times

[PrincessWithABlaster]

So with the 3rd track opening for Toy Story, anyone every seen any details on how much impact that will have on wait time? Simple math says it should reduce by a third but that doesn't take into account behavior. A shorter wait time means people who might not have been willing to wait 90 mins might wait 60 pushing up the wait. Anyone seen anything addressing this anywhere?

 

[mom2rtk]

I'd say all bets are off in that park with so much stuff closing. No way to know if that extra track will help.

 

[Jedimike]

When is this third track supposed to open?

 

[loutoo]

The math involved in this question is actually a lot more complicated than you might guess at first glance, and involves variables that only Disney has the data to fill.

At first glance you might be tempted to think that TSMM has a capacity of 1000 riders per hour, so a 90 minute wait would mean there are 1500 in the standby line. This would mean if you increased the capacity by 50% to 1500 then the wait would drop to an hour. This does not take into account the FP+ system though.

In reality no one outside of Disney knows what percentage of TSMM capacity is given to the FP+ system, but conservative estimates have placed it over 75%. That would mean only 250 riders can currently ride per hour through the standby line, so a 90 minute wait would represent 375 riders waiting in the standby line. This would mean if you increased capacity by 50% to 1500 and didn't increase the FP+ allocation at all, TSMM would be a walk on ride. Of course that assumes no one ( or less than 125 people per hour) who are currently scared away by the 90 minute wait would decide to ride or ride again.

I am going to guess that after a month or two of the new track in operation you might expect to see wait times ranging from 20-45 minutes depending on season and time of day. and perhaps much shorter in the early morning and late evening.

I would also expect as more new rides and experiences come online at DHS that you are going to see wait times drop even more. I would expect under 30 minutes once toy story land opens and probably under 20 once SW land opens

 

[mom2rtk]

The math involved in this question is actually a lot more complicated than you might guess at first glance, and involves variables that only Disney has the data to fill.

At first glance you might be tempted to think that TSMM has a capacity of 1000 riders per hour, so a 90 minute wait would mean there are 1500 in the standby line. This would mean if you increased the capacity by 50% to 1500 then the wait would drop to an hour. This does not take into account the FP+ system though.

In reality no one outside of Disney knows what percentage of TSMM capacity is given to the FP+ system, but conservative estimates have placed it over 75%. That would mean only 250 riders can currently ride per hour through the standby line, so a 90 minute wait would represent 375 riders waiting in the standby line. This would mean if you increased capacity by 50% to 1500 and didn't increase the FP+ allocation at all, TSMM would be a walk on ride. Of course that assumes no one ( or less than 125 people per hour) who are currently scared away by the 90 minute wait would decide to ride or ride again.

I am going to guess that after a month or two of the new track in operation you might expect to see wait times ranging from 20-45 minutes depending on season and time of day. and perhaps much shorter in the early morning and late evening.

I would also expect as more new rides and experiences come online at DHS that you are going to see wait times drop even more. I would expect under 30 minutes once toy story land opens and probably under 20 once SW land opens

It's also possible that they might merely add capacity to the FP system with the new track. That would enable more people to select it as a FP to begin with, but I still have my doubts it might mean it would reliably be available as a 4th.

 

[Davey Jones II]

Using a FP+ for TSMM will still be a very good idea. I don't see wait times going down very much, given all the closed attractions. But if they hadn't built a third track, wait times would have gone up even more!

 

[loutoo]

Another interesting thing to consider. There are currently five "rides" at at DHS, with a total combined daily capacity of approx 106,000. When story land and Star Wars Lands are complete, there will be nine "rides" with a combined capacity of approx 180,000. The third hypothetical land rumored to be coming would push ride capacity to around 240,000 most likely. Although still well shy of the nearly 400,000 which the MK boasts, this would be far more than the Epcot and AK, and when you add shows and other entertainment into the equation DHS may nearly rival MK for entertainment capacity.

 

[Babe the Blue Ox]

While the 3rd track will help to ease overcrowding on this attraction, the best strategy will always be to arrive about an hour before close on a regular night or a half hour before close on a fireworks night. This is when the line is the shortest.

 

[PrincessWithABlaster]

This does not take into account the FP+ system though.

A very good point. I had not considered the effects of FP+. I was hoping to see times come down, but we'll plan to FP it and try to do an early morning ride too.