TS Ophelia

[Tnkrbelle565]

Anyone who lives further south than I do have any concerns about this? What is Florida news predicting? I'm leaving tomorrow morning and have a connection in Atlanta.

 

[Bob P]

Latest forecasts have a few different scenarios which include:

1) Sitting where it is for a few days, dumping rain and windy conditions from Jacksonville down the Florida coast.

2) Moving inland, crossing Florida, and coming out into the Gulf somewhere between Tampa and Fort Myers, with another possible Gulf hit.

3) Moving upward toward the Georgia or Carolina coast.

4) Moving out away from land, then looping back around and hitting Florida.

5) Something else.

It's a stubborn storm and there's no way to tell what it will do right now. Just go and enjoy yourself, but bring ponchos!

Bob

 

[safetymom]

www.wftv.com is a local weather station.

 

[Uncleromulus]

Bob P:
Always lots of computer models, but no live forecaster with any idea which is "correct". And as we saw with Katrina, sometimes they are ALL wrong.
Maybe it'll stay out at sea and no one will be impacted.

 

[Miss Jasmine]

Bob P:
Always lots of computer models, but no live forecaster with any idea which is "correct". And as we saw with Katrina, sometimes they are ALL wrong.
Maybe it'll stay out at sea and no one will be impacted.

Actually the NHC wasn't wrong with Katrina. People focus too much on the line and not the cone. Any area in the cone CAN be affected and people should be prepared. Editing to add NHC graphic of Katrina: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/KATRINA_graphics.shtml You can see that beginning on August 26, the area hit WAS within the three day cone. The area that was hit was within the five-day cone on August 23.

Anyway, Ophelia is a wait and watch kind of storm. None of the models are agreeing. Personally I wish she would hurry up and just hit some land before she has a chance to strengthen more.

 

[Uncleromulus]

Actually--they were wrong with Katrina. I'm talking very early--when it first pased over S. Fla. and EVERY computer model had it heading N--some had it even hugging the West Florida coast. That "cone of uncertainty" (as they politely call it) wasn't even near New Orleans. The Weather Channel even sent a guy to Naples Fla. in anticipation of all the damage--. He was on the air soon after, reporting mist and a bit of wind--
Once they discovered it was heading W and not N, they revised the "cone of uncertainty" and most models had it hitting near Pensacola. Only later did they realize New Orleans etc was in danger.

 

[Miss Jasmine]

Actually--they were EXTREMELY wrong with Katrina. I'm talking very early--when it first pased over S. Fla. and EVERY computer model had it heading N--some had it even hugging the West Florida coast. That "cone of uncertainty" (as they politely call it) wasn't even near New Orleans. The Weather Channel even sent a guy to Naples Fla. in anticipation of all the damage--. He was on the air soon after, reporting mist and a bit of wind--
Once they discovered it was heading W and not N, they revised the "cone of uncertainty" and most models had it hitting near Pensacola. Only later did they realize New Orleans etc was in danger.

Well I disagree. Click on the link I posted in my post above, take a look at the 5-day cone of uncertainty. It covered that area on August 23.

Oh and we all know how reliable models are.

Funny I am sitting in south-central Brevard and the sun is peaking out and it's not windy. Ophelia is one strange storm.

 

[Uncleromulus]

Yep--run enough computer models and one of 'em will have Ophelia hitting Wyoming.

 

[Bob P]

Uncle Romulus,

I subscribe to accuweather.com's pro site, and their chief tropical/long range forecaster Joe (whose name I can't use here because it is too close to a prohibited word) had nailed Katrina from about a week prior, saying it would hit and pass through Florida, and re-emerge in the gulf as a very strong storm, threatening the area from the panhandle to New Orleans.

I'm not a meteorologist, nor do I play one on TV, but I am obsessed with meteorology! Joe from accuweather.com is the best long-range forecaster I've ever come across (by the way, he is leaning toward option #2 in my post above, with the gulf being cooler now after Katrina, which will prevent this one from turning into a monster).

Bob

 

[Miss Jasmine]

Uncle Romulus,

I subscribe to accuweather.com's pro site, and their chief tropical/long range forecaster Joe (whose name I can't use here because it is too close to a prohibited word) had nailed Katrina from about a week prior, saying it would hit and pass through Florida, and re-emerge in the gulf as a very strong storm, threatening the area from the panhandle to New Orleans.

I'm not a meteorologist, nor do I play one on TV, but I am obsessed with meteorology! Joe from accuweather.com is the best long-range forecaster I've ever come across (by the way, he is leaning toward option #2 in my post above, with the gulf being cooler now after Katrina, which will prevent this one from turning into a monster).

Bob

Joe B. finally got "lucky". He has been predicting that NO storm for years. Every storm that has been in the gulf he said was heading for NO.

 

[Uncleromulus]

I just saw him on TV regarding Ophelia--. Appeared quite flummoxed, had no idea where it was going and would not even venture a guess as to which of the 12 computer models was correct--(or--if any were correct).
Nice fellow tho--.