Trust points?

[DVCsloth]

Hoping they don't mess with Riviera, and it ends up changing the room balance like they did with VGF.

 

[Sandisw]

Wouldn’t they run into problems with figuring out the percentage? Example if all GVs declared into DVC, someone in trust either shouldn’t be able to book or there is a good chance combination of other trust room points wouldn’t work out to 25%.

Additionally, different views come into play. I don’t know what is undeclared, but it could get interesting if all undeclared was a standard view. They would have a hard time figuring out points balance for a day if booking from the others inventory.

Seems cleaner for Disney if they only opt to do this for new resorts.

I definitely agree that their are a lot of nuances of it all and why I don’t see them adding current resort inventory.

But, the POS didnt define SV vs PV so there would be wiggle room with that.

Again, knowing RIV is only left with 25%. I tend to think this would be new resorts only.

 

[Sandisw]

Hoping they don't mess with Riviera, and it ends up changing the room balance like they did with VGF.

Again, I don’t believe they can do anything with already declared. This is what we currently have and if it goes the way I believe it has to go, then the most the trust can have is the rooms not yet declared.

https://dvcnews.com/wdw-resorts/riv...-32-vacation-homes-to-riviera-s-dvc-inventory

 

[Chili327]

Does this trust system/situation have any difference when it comes to the resale market?
Would be able to be resold, would it be harder, easier, would it be any different that a regular resale contract?
In other words, DVC is different because resale value is there, would this be any different?

 

[maui22]

Does this trust system/situation have any difference when it comes to the resale market?
Would be able to be resold, would it be harder, easier, would it be any different that a regular resale contract?
In other words, DVC is different because resale value is there, would this be any different?

If the reported dues are correct, wouldn’t HH and VB be good examples to look at for resale? Dues are reportedly between the two. CFW resale will only be able to stay at CFW, while HH and VB can stay at the original 14 (unrestricted resorts).

Disney would likely ROFR a CFW resale at the price we would be willing to pay.

 

[dioxide45]

Does this trust system/situation have any difference when it comes to the resale market?
Would be able to be resold, would it be harder, easier, would it be any different that a regular resale contract?
In other words, DVC is different because resale value is there, would this be any different?

I don't see where the trust setup really impacts resale prices of CFW points. The only impact would come if DVD starts adding other resorts to the trust. Then that could either negatively or positively impact resale pricing.

 

[AstroBlasters]

If the reported dues are correct, wouldn’t HH and VB be good examples to look at for resale? Dues are reportedly between the two. CFW resale will only be able to stay at CFW, while HH and VB can stay at the original 14 (unrestricted resorts).

Disney would likely ROFR a CFW resale at the price we would be willing to pay.

A restricted CFW with $12.15 dues…. my prediction is it would have the largest depreciation in DVC history within the first 36m….

 

[AwfulWaffle]

I thought DVD might have a chance if they sold this as a second tier of points but now that it has been officially announced as a deluxe resort, I am just at a loss. They had a real opportunity to onboard moderates and reach an entirely new demographic but instead they slapped a deluxe tag on it, threw on restrictions (already knew this one), and set a starting, yes starting, annual due estimate of twelve and some change.l, oof. Can you imagine those dues in 20 years from now? Any thought I had of buying here just went away so here’s to hoping at the 7 month mark (not happening since it would only be during peak times). Back to waiting for Poly 2

 

[maui22]

I thought DVD might have a chance if they sold this as a second tier of points but now that it has been officially announced as a deluxe resort, I am just at a loss. They had a real opportunity to onboard moderates and reach an entirely new demographic but instead they slapped a deluxe tag on it, threw on restrictions (already knew this one), and set a starting, yes starting, annual due estimate of twelve and some change.l, oof. Can you imagine those dues in 20 years from now? Any thought I had of buying here just went away so here’s to hoping at the 7 month mark (not happening since it would only be during peak times). Back to waiting for Poly 2

Agree.

Now I fear the trust even more. Disney has an incentive to average the dues across all trust resorts. Allows them to bring in some painful dues resorts in the future and promise buyers a shiny tower with everyone possibly having an 12 month booking window since they would all pay dues.

If Poly 2 is part of trust, it sounds like they have language to make any changes. Too many developers use that language for a bait and switch.

 

[MerlinandtheMouse]

I thought DVD might have a chance if they sold this as a second tier of points but now that it has been officially announced as a deluxe resort, I am just at a loss. They had a real opportunity to onboard moderates and reach an entirely new demographic but instead they slapped a deluxe tag on it, threw on restrictions (already knew this one), and set a starting, yes starting, annual due estimate of twelve and some change.l, oof. Can you imagine those dues in 20 years from now? Any thought I had of buying here just went away so here’s to hoping at the 7 month mark (not happening since it would only be during peak times). Back to waiting for Poly 2

I completely agree. Unless the buy-in cost is so much less than we’re all assuming buying here doesn’t make any sense. If you love FW just pay normal cash rates, I’m sure there will be discounts most times of the year anyway. You’re not saving any money by buying it through DVC, I’m not sure there’s a break even point.

 

[Sandisw]

Agree.

Now I fear the trust even more. Disney has an incentive to average the dues across all trust resorts. Allows them to bring in some painful dues resorts in the future and promise buyers a shiny tower with everyone possibly having an 12 month booking window since they would all pay dues.

If Poly 2 is part of trust, it sounds like they have language to make any changes. Too many developers use that language for a bait and switch.

The way I am understanding the language is that dues can be spread out for multiple properites if DVD adds the other sites to the same vacation plan that exists.

For example, they currently have one trust plan...The Cabins Resort Use Plan...because the only resort property that the trust owns is The Cabins at Ft Wildnerness.

If they decide to add a future property to the trust, they can. In order for that property to then have its dues averaged against the cabins, for example, is to have some of that property put under the current Cabins Plan (which would require them to change the name of the plan).

But, they also set this up to have multiple trust use plans...and for me, that leads me to believe that the notion might be more to inline in what we might see...and the reason is the resale restrictions...

If they activate different component sites under the same trust use plan, then I think all of those rooms would be accessible to the resale buyer of that specific contract...which seems to defeat the purpose of them? It would still leave them out of current resorts, but would seem to give them access to more than one?

Then again, thinking as I type, maybe that is the plan...to keep them, but use the trust to slowly change them? The hard part of all of this, right now, is that as long as the only resort property in the trust are the cabins, it is going to function exactly the same as the current set up...so there is no real way to know if this was just for those, or if it is a long term committment, until we see other property added.

Poly tower will be the first test....

 

[Tiggerette]

If we're thinking of realistic use of these points, the document lays out that a hotel is envisioned as part of the use trust. I think others have mentioned upthread that when the hotel comes online, the cabins and hotel would work jointly like SS treehouses* or the VGF villas/resort. Meaning that the same pool of points is in the same resort for home booking priority.
Additionally, it's possible the hotel becomes a hybrid space like Boardwalk, which has dedicated cash-only and DVC (with cash option) spaces.

*I'm not bringing into the cabin discussion how the SS treehouses created a new booking type/category, and the allowability of which was rather opaque in the associated control documents. In this circumstance, the addition of a hotel (with assumed new booking types) already outlined and intended.

 

[SL6827]

DVC going the way of the dining plan? In the beginning, it saved you money, but now, not so much?

 

[AstroBlasters]

I completely agree. Unless the buy-in cost is so much less than we’re all assuming buying here doesn’t make any sense. If you love FW just pay normal cash rates, I’m sure there will be discounts most times of the year anyway. You’re not saving any money by buying it through DVC, I’m not sure there’s a break even point.

The current Ft. Wilderness 20% offer puts the cabins at $521.40 a night (default March dates) plus tax. The Orange County TOT appears to be 12.5%, so all in roughly $587 a night.

A week during the same dates would be 176 points or roughly 25 points a night in 2025.

At $217pp that would equate out to roughly $16.48 a point annualized with dues.

$16.48 x 25 = $412 (a savings of $175 a night before including any cost of capital)

Other things to include: incentives, closing costs, etc.

 

[maui22]

The current Ft. Wilderness 20% offer puts the cabins at $521.40 a night (default March dates) plus tax. The Orange County TOT appears to be 12.5%, so all in roughly $587 a night.

A week during the same dates would be 176 points or roughly 25 points a night in 2025.

At $217pp that would equate out to roughly $16.48 a point annualized with dues.

$16.48 x 25 = $412 (a savings of $175 a night before including any cost of capital)

Other things to include: incentives, closing costs, etc.

Good analysis.

I wonder if CFW becoming deluxe changes incentives in the future. Many times deluxe resorts run higher. I recall seeing them as high as 40% during 9/11 and the great recession.

We bought into DVC when we booked AKL on a buy 4 nights get 3 free promotion. Didn’t require a park ticket and we already owned APs.

 

[Chili327]

I thought DVD might have a chance if they sold this as a second tier of points but now that it has been officially announced as a deluxe resort, I am just at a loss. They had a real opportunity to onboard moderates and reach an entirely new demographic but instead they slapped a deluxe tag on it, threw on restrictions (already knew this one), and set a starting, yes starting, annual due estimate of twelve and some change.l, oof. Can you imagine those dues in 20 years from now? Any thought I had of buying here just went away so here’s to hoping at the 7 month mark (not happening since it would only be during peak times). Back to waiting for Poly 2

I don't think that is possible... if we could buy direct points for $99 & use them at VGF/VGC why wouldn't everyone buy into those only.

 

[AwfulWaffle]

I don't think that is possible... if we could buy direct points for $99 & use them at VGF/VGC why wouldn't everyone buy into those only.

No those points would only be able to be used within the moderate point system. One could spend their expensive deluxe points to stay there at 7 months but not vice a versa.

 

[Chili327]

No those points would only be able to be used within the moderate point system. One could spend their expensive deluxe points to stay there at 7 months but not vice a versa.

What other place is within the moderate system? (or would be)

 

[AwfulWaffle]

What other place is within the moderate system? (or would be)

This is 1 of X, thus the opportunity to begin bringing in more moderate but its mood point anyways since DVD will just call everything it wants to bring into its offering a deluxe resort so that's another way I suppose.

 

[eticketplease]

The current Ft. Wilderness 20% offer puts the cabins at $521.40 a night (default March dates) plus tax. The Orange County TOT appears to be 12.5%, so all in roughly $587 a night.

A week during the same dates would be 176 points or roughly 25 points a night in 2025.

At $217pp that would equate out to roughly $16.48 a point annualized with dues.

$16.48 x 25 = $412 (a savings of $175 a night before including any cost of capital)

Other things to include: incentives, closing costs, etc.

Can you do the math when they raise the prices?

DVCNews showed them going up on 1/30/24 to $225 so I would assume CFW would start out there at a minimum (not factoring in incentives)

$175 a night savings is not bad just curious how much it goes down. Not a math guru so I assume it will lose more than the $8 extra a point.

Thanks.