HumanCookie
Mouseketeer
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- Jan 12, 2004
- Messages
- 329
Bulletin will follow at 5 PM
Tropical Storm LISA (aka TD 13)
- Thread starter HumanCookie
- Start date
HumanCookie
Mouseketeer
- Joined
- Jan 12, 2004
- Messages
- 329
HumanCookie
Mouseketeer
- Joined
- Jan 12, 2004
- Messages
- 329
Do not worry, your trip will be fine.
Dunno about JEANNE though. They are predicting that she's gonna make a softball pitch (Loop-The-Loop) at South Florida.
Here's the Discussion for TD 13:
AXNT20 KNHC 191801
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN 19 SEP 2004
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL STORM JEANNE CENTER...AT 19/1500 UTC...NEAR 23.5N 72.5W
OR ABOUT 130 MILES/210 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAN SALVADOR IN
THE BAHAMAS...MOVING NORTH 4 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED
40 KT GUSTS 50 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES/140 KM
FROM THE CENTER. SEE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY OR NHC FORECAST/
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC OR
MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE COMPARATIVELY COLDEST
CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES ARE CONFINED TO THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF
JEANNE...WITHIN 20 TO 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 22N71W 24N70W
25N70W 26N72W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND OTHER
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 21N TO 27N BETWEEN 67W AND 77W. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH OF
JEANNE...SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...FROM 15N TO
17N BETWEEN 70.5W AND 72W...AND FROM 17N TO 18N BETWEEN 69W AND
71W.
HURRICANE KARL CENTER...AT 19/1500 UTC...NEAR 16.4N 42.9W
MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST 9 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED
110 KT GUSTS 135 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 MB.
SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER
MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. AN EYE IS EASILY
DETECTABLE ON VISIBLE AND INFRARED IMAGERY. THE COMPARATIVELY
COLDEST CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES ARE WITHIN 50 TO 80 NM OF THE
CENTER FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. OTHER WIDELY SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AND BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS FROM 12N TO 22N
BETWEEN 37W AND 48W.
1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 13N31W...ABOUT 550 MILES
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM IS
WELL ORGANIZED AND TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORIES LIKELY WILL
BE INITIATED LATER TODAY. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 14N TO 16N BETWEEN 31.5W AND 34W.
Dunno about JEANNE though. They are predicting that she's gonna make a softball pitch (Loop-The-Loop) at South Florida.
Here's the Discussion for TD 13:
AXNT20 KNHC 191801
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN 19 SEP 2004
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL STORM JEANNE CENTER...AT 19/1500 UTC...NEAR 23.5N 72.5W
OR ABOUT 130 MILES/210 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAN SALVADOR IN
THE BAHAMAS...MOVING NORTH 4 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED
40 KT GUSTS 50 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES/140 KM
FROM THE CENTER. SEE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY OR NHC FORECAST/
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC OR
MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE COMPARATIVELY COLDEST
CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES ARE CONFINED TO THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF
JEANNE...WITHIN 20 TO 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 22N71W 24N70W
25N70W 26N72W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND OTHER
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 21N TO 27N BETWEEN 67W AND 77W. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH OF
JEANNE...SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...FROM 15N TO
17N BETWEEN 70.5W AND 72W...AND FROM 17N TO 18N BETWEEN 69W AND
71W.
HURRICANE KARL CENTER...AT 19/1500 UTC...NEAR 16.4N 42.9W
MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST 9 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED
110 KT GUSTS 135 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 MB.
SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER
MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. AN EYE IS EASILY
DETECTABLE ON VISIBLE AND INFRARED IMAGERY. THE COMPARATIVELY
COLDEST CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES ARE WITHIN 50 TO 80 NM OF THE
CENTER FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. OTHER WIDELY SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AND BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS FROM 12N TO 22N
BETWEEN 37W AND 48W.
1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 13N31W...ABOUT 550 MILES
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM IS
WELL ORGANIZED AND TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORIES LIKELY WILL
BE INITIATED LATER TODAY. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 14N TO 16N BETWEEN 31.5W AND 34W.
HumanCookie
Mouseketeer
- Joined
- Jan 12, 2004
- Messages
- 329
WTNT23 KNHC 192046
TCMAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132004
2100Z SUN SEP 19 2004
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 33.2W AT 19/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 33.2W AT 19/2100Z
AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 32.6W
FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 13.6N 34.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 14.6N 37.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 15.8N 39.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 17.1N 41.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 19.0N 44.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 21.5N 46.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 25.0N 48.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.3N 33.2W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
5 PM Discussion No. 1
WTNT43 KNHC 192046
TCDAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SUN SEP 19 2004
THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER BETWEEN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND
HURRICANE KARL IS WELL ENOUGH ORGANIZED TO BE UPGRADED TO A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS INCREASE THE WIND
SPEED BY 20 AND 45 KT RESPECTIVELY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS LESS AGRESSIVE...ONLY INCREASING THE WIND TO 45
KT. THIS IS BASED ON THE SUGGESTION ON SATELLITE IMAGERY THAT THE
OUTFLOW FROM KARL IS IMPINGING ON THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
DEPRESSIONS CONVECTION AND MAY HAVE AN INHIBITING EFFECT.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/06. THE DEPRESSION IS NOT
REPRESENTED WELL IN THE GFS AND IN SEVERAL OTHER MODELS. THE TRACK
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY IS FOR A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TO
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT 120 HOURS TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LEFT BY HURRICANE KARL. THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE GFDL MODEL.
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 19/2100Z 13.3N 33.2W 30 KT
12HR VT 20/0600Z 13.6N 34.8W 35 KT
24HR VT 20/1800Z 14.6N 37.2W 40 KT
36HR VT 21/0600Z 15.8N 39.3W 45 KT
48HR VT 21/1800Z 17.1N 41.5W 45 KT
72HR VT 22/1800Z 19.0N 44.0W 45 KT
96HR VT 23/1800Z 21.5N 46.0W 40 KT
120HR VT 24/1800Z 25.0N 48.0W 40 KT
TCMAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132004
2100Z SUN SEP 19 2004
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 33.2W AT 19/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 33.2W AT 19/2100Z
AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 32.6W
FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 13.6N 34.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 14.6N 37.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 15.8N 39.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 17.1N 41.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 19.0N 44.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 21.5N 46.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 25.0N 48.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.3N 33.2W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
5 PM Discussion No. 1
WTNT43 KNHC 192046
TCDAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SUN SEP 19 2004
THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER BETWEEN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND
HURRICANE KARL IS WELL ENOUGH ORGANIZED TO BE UPGRADED TO A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS INCREASE THE WIND
SPEED BY 20 AND 45 KT RESPECTIVELY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS LESS AGRESSIVE...ONLY INCREASING THE WIND TO 45
KT. THIS IS BASED ON THE SUGGESTION ON SATELLITE IMAGERY THAT THE
OUTFLOW FROM KARL IS IMPINGING ON THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
DEPRESSIONS CONVECTION AND MAY HAVE AN INHIBITING EFFECT.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/06. THE DEPRESSION IS NOT
REPRESENTED WELL IN THE GFS AND IN SEVERAL OTHER MODELS. THE TRACK
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY IS FOR A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TO
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT 120 HOURS TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LEFT BY HURRICANE KARL. THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE GFDL MODEL.
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 19/2100Z 13.3N 33.2W 30 KT
12HR VT 20/0600Z 13.6N 34.8W 35 KT
24HR VT 20/1800Z 14.6N 37.2W 40 KT
36HR VT 21/0600Z 15.8N 39.3W 45 KT
48HR VT 21/1800Z 17.1N 41.5W 45 KT
72HR VT 22/1800Z 19.0N 44.0W 45 KT
96HR VT 23/1800Z 21.5N 46.0W 40 KT
120HR VT 24/1800Z 25.0N 48.0W 40 KT
Talking Hands
<font color=purple><b>|,,|/</b> DEAF DISNEY LOVER<
- Joined
- Mar 27, 2002
- Messages
- 9,711
I REQUEST THAT TD13 NOT HIT ANY LAND AND NOT BECOME MY NAMESAKE. I AM SO SICK OF HURRICANES AND I STILL CAN'T GET MY ELECTRICAL PROBLEMS FIXED BECAUSE OF THEM.
HumanCookie
Mouseketeer
- Joined
- Jan 12, 2004
- Messages
- 329
And what would that namesake be LISA?
000
WTNT33 KNHC 200235
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM AST SUN SEP 19 2004
...TD THIRTEEN MOVING WESTWARD OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC...
AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 34.1 WEST OR
ABOUT 700 MILES...1130 KM... WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...13.2 N... 34.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 AM AST.
FORECASTER JARVINEN/AGUIRRE
000
WTNT43 KNHC 200254
TCDAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SUN SEP 19 2004
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/10. THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AROUND THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED RIDGE TO ITS NORTH...THE SAME RIDGE
THAT IS MOVING KARL. THE CONSENSUS OF THE FORECAST TRACK MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST
DIRECTION. BASED UPON THIS GUIDANCE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK
HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST TRACK. THIS A MAJOR CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
PACKAGE.
TD THIRTEEN IS EXHIBITING VERY COLD TOP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER
AND INTERMITTENTLY IN A BAND WITHIN 160 NM TO ITS NW. THE SYSTEM
HAS NOT SHOWN ANY SIGNIFICANT ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST THE
PREVIOUS 6 HOURS AS IT HAS BEEN ENCOUNTERING SOME EASTERLY SHEAR.
DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH SAB AND TAFB ARE
2.0...JUST BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. SINCE THE DEPRESSION IS
NOW FOLLOWING A MORE WESTERLY TRACK THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED...
THE LATEST SHIPS MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE SHEAR OVER THE
SYSTEM WILL DECREASE OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS... ALLOWING FOR
STRENGTHENING TO A TROPICAL STORM. AFTER THIS TIME THE SHEAR
INCREASES...ALTHOUGH...CONTINUED STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.
FORECASTER AGUIRRE/JARVINEN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 20/0300Z 13.2N 34.1W 30 KT
12HR VT 20/1200Z 13.5N 35.6W 35 KT
24HR VT 21/0000Z 13.7N 37.0W 40 KT
36HR VT 21/1200Z 13.9N 38.4W 45 KT
48HR VT 22/0000Z 14.1N 39.9W 50 KT
72HR VT 23/0000Z 14.8N 42.9W 55 KT
96HR VT 24/0000Z 15.3N 45.6W 55 KT
120HR VT 25/0000Z 15.9N 48.6W 55 KT
WTNT33 KNHC 200235
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM AST SUN SEP 19 2004
...TD THIRTEEN MOVING WESTWARD OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC...
AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 34.1 WEST OR
ABOUT 700 MILES...1130 KM... WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...13.2 N... 34.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 AM AST.
FORECASTER JARVINEN/AGUIRRE
000
WTNT43 KNHC 200254
TCDAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SUN SEP 19 2004
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/10. THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AROUND THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED RIDGE TO ITS NORTH...THE SAME RIDGE
THAT IS MOVING KARL. THE CONSENSUS OF THE FORECAST TRACK MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST
DIRECTION. BASED UPON THIS GUIDANCE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK
HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST TRACK. THIS A MAJOR CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
PACKAGE.
TD THIRTEEN IS EXHIBITING VERY COLD TOP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER
AND INTERMITTENTLY IN A BAND WITHIN 160 NM TO ITS NW. THE SYSTEM
HAS NOT SHOWN ANY SIGNIFICANT ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST THE
PREVIOUS 6 HOURS AS IT HAS BEEN ENCOUNTERING SOME EASTERLY SHEAR.
DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH SAB AND TAFB ARE
2.0...JUST BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. SINCE THE DEPRESSION IS
NOW FOLLOWING A MORE WESTERLY TRACK THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED...
THE LATEST SHIPS MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE SHEAR OVER THE
SYSTEM WILL DECREASE OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS... ALLOWING FOR
STRENGTHENING TO A TROPICAL STORM. AFTER THIS TIME THE SHEAR
INCREASES...ALTHOUGH...CONTINUED STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.
FORECASTER AGUIRRE/JARVINEN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 20/0300Z 13.2N 34.1W 30 KT
12HR VT 20/1200Z 13.5N 35.6W 35 KT
24HR VT 21/0000Z 13.7N 37.0W 40 KT
36HR VT 21/1200Z 13.9N 38.4W 45 KT
48HR VT 22/0000Z 14.1N 39.9W 50 KT
72HR VT 23/0000Z 14.8N 42.9W 55 KT
96HR VT 24/0000Z 15.3N 45.6W 55 KT
120HR VT 25/0000Z 15.9N 48.6W 55 KT
HumanCookie
Mouseketeer
- Joined
- Jan 12, 2004
- Messages
- 329
ZCZC MIATCPAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM AST MON SEP 20 2004
...DEPRESSION CONTINUES WESTWARD ON THE HEELS OF KARL...
AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 34.9 WEST OR ABOUT 750
MILES...1205 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH
...19 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...13.5 N... 34.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM AST.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
5 AM Discussion
ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT MON SEP 20 2004
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT 30 KT FROM ALL AGENCIES AND THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT. THE DEPRESSION IS MAINTAINING
A SMALL BALL OF CONVECTION NEAR THE PRESUMED CENTER BUT HAS NO
DISCERNABLE OUTFLOW PATTERN AT THIS TIME. INDEED...THE DEPRESSION
IS CAUGHT BETWEEN HURRICANE KARL ABOUT 650 NM TO ITS WEST-NORTHWEST
AND A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER TO ITS
SOUTHEAST. THE GFS...NOGAPS...AND UKMET ALL MAKE THE DEPRESSION
THE WEAKEST OF THESE THREE SYSTEMS WITHIN A COUPLE OF DAYS. WHILE
BOTH THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE BRING THE DEPRESSION TO HURRICANE
STRENGTH...I AM RELUCTANT TO DO SO GIVEN THE COMPETING SYSTEMS IN
ITS NEAR ENVIRONMENT...AND IT IS QUITE FOSSIBLE THIS DEPRESSION
WILL BE SHORT-LIVED.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/10. FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO THE
DEPRESSION SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY WESTWARD UNDERNEATH A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST OF KARL. AFTER THAT THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK AS THE GUIDANCE MODELS ARE GIVING A WIDE
VARIETY OF POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS. THE GFS LOSES THE DEPRESSION IN THE
DISTURBANCE TO THE SOUTHEAST...WHILE THE UKMET ENTRAINS IT INTO
KARL. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE GFDL KEEPS THE DEPRESSION AND TAKES
IT WEST AND THEN WEST-SOUTHWEST AS HEIGHTS BUILD IN AFTER KARL
LIFTS OUT...WHILE THE BAM MODELS HAVE VARYING DEGREES OF A BEND TO
THE RIGHT. CURRENTLY THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING FASTER THAN
KARL...INCREASING THE CHANCE OF IT MOVING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR
NORTHWEST ON KARL'S EASTERN PERIPHERY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS
BEEN ADJUSTED NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO REFLECT THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME INTERACTION...BUT THEN BENDS THE TRACK BACK TO
THE WEST NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE ASSUMPTION
THAT KARL WILL LEAVE THE DEPRESSION BEHIND. GIVEN THE VERY
COMPLICATED ENVIRONMENT...THIS IS A RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 20/0900Z 13.5N 34.9W 30 KT
12HR VT 20/1800Z 13.6N 36.4W 35 KT
24HR VT 21/0600Z 14.1N 38.2W 40 KT
36HR VT 21/1800Z 14.5N 39.7W 45 KT
48HR VT 22/0600Z 15.0N 41.5W 50 KT
72HR VT 23/0600Z 17.0N 45.0W 55 KT
96HR VT 24/0600Z 18.0N 48.0W 55 KT
120HR VT 25/0600Z 18.5N 51.0W 55 KT
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM AST MON SEP 20 2004
...DEPRESSION CONTINUES WESTWARD ON THE HEELS OF KARL...
AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 34.9 WEST OR ABOUT 750
MILES...1205 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH
...19 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...13.5 N... 34.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM AST.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
5 AM Discussion
ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT MON SEP 20 2004
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT 30 KT FROM ALL AGENCIES AND THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT. THE DEPRESSION IS MAINTAINING
A SMALL BALL OF CONVECTION NEAR THE PRESUMED CENTER BUT HAS NO
DISCERNABLE OUTFLOW PATTERN AT THIS TIME. INDEED...THE DEPRESSION
IS CAUGHT BETWEEN HURRICANE KARL ABOUT 650 NM TO ITS WEST-NORTHWEST
AND A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER TO ITS
SOUTHEAST. THE GFS...NOGAPS...AND UKMET ALL MAKE THE DEPRESSION
THE WEAKEST OF THESE THREE SYSTEMS WITHIN A COUPLE OF DAYS. WHILE
BOTH THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE BRING THE DEPRESSION TO HURRICANE
STRENGTH...I AM RELUCTANT TO DO SO GIVEN THE COMPETING SYSTEMS IN
ITS NEAR ENVIRONMENT...AND IT IS QUITE FOSSIBLE THIS DEPRESSION
WILL BE SHORT-LIVED.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/10. FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO THE
DEPRESSION SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY WESTWARD UNDERNEATH A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST OF KARL. AFTER THAT THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK AS THE GUIDANCE MODELS ARE GIVING A WIDE
VARIETY OF POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS. THE GFS LOSES THE DEPRESSION IN THE
DISTURBANCE TO THE SOUTHEAST...WHILE THE UKMET ENTRAINS IT INTO
KARL. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE GFDL KEEPS THE DEPRESSION AND TAKES
IT WEST AND THEN WEST-SOUTHWEST AS HEIGHTS BUILD IN AFTER KARL
LIFTS OUT...WHILE THE BAM MODELS HAVE VARYING DEGREES OF A BEND TO
THE RIGHT. CURRENTLY THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING FASTER THAN
KARL...INCREASING THE CHANCE OF IT MOVING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR
NORTHWEST ON KARL'S EASTERN PERIPHERY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS
BEEN ADJUSTED NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO REFLECT THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME INTERACTION...BUT THEN BENDS THE TRACK BACK TO
THE WEST NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE ASSUMPTION
THAT KARL WILL LEAVE THE DEPRESSION BEHIND. GIVEN THE VERY
COMPLICATED ENVIRONMENT...THIS IS A RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 20/0900Z 13.5N 34.9W 30 KT
12HR VT 20/1800Z 13.6N 36.4W 35 KT
24HR VT 21/0600Z 14.1N 38.2W 40 KT
36HR VT 21/1800Z 14.5N 39.7W 45 KT
48HR VT 22/0600Z 15.0N 41.5W 50 KT
72HR VT 23/0600Z 17.0N 45.0W 55 KT
96HR VT 24/0600Z 18.0N 48.0W 55 KT
120HR VT 25/0600Z 18.5N 51.0W 55 KT
HumanCookie
Mouseketeer
- Joined
- Jan 12, 2004
- Messages
- 329
WTNT33 KNHC 201149
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LISA SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM AST MON SEP 20 2004
...TROPICAL STORM LISA DEVELOPS OVER THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AT 8 AM AST...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LISA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 13.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 35.4 WEST OR ABOUT 780
MILES...1255 KM...WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
LISA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR... AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
VARIOUS SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES NOW INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES
... 55 KM FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 8 AM AST POSITION...13.5 N... 35.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 11 AM AST.
FORECASTER STEWART
8 AM Discussion
WTNT43 KNHC 201200
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM LISA SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM EDT MON SEP 20 2004
VARIOUS SATELLITE SOURCES AND INTENSITY ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND HAS
STRENGTHENED. THE FIRST FEW VISIBLE SATELITE IMAGES INDICATE A
BANDING EYE FEATURE IS TRYING TO DEVELOP...AND A 20/0955Z SSMI
OVERPASS REVEALED A SMALL MID-LEVEL EYE WAS PRESENT. SUCH FEATURES
ARE TYPICALLY CHARACTERISTIC OF 45-55 KT TROPICAL CYCLONES. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 45 KT IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY A 20/0902Z
UW-CIMSS AMSU PRESSURE ESTIMATE OF 999.1 MB. THEREFORE...THE
DEPRESSION IS BEING UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM LISA.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/10. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE
PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST OR REASONING. THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS ONLY
TO INDICATE THE INCREASE TO TROPICAL STRENGTH...AND AN INCREASE IN
THE INTENSITY FORECAST.
LISA IS A SMALL AND RATHER COMPACT TROPICAL CYCLONE. AS SUCH...IT IS
SUSCEPTIBLE TO SHARP CHANGES IN INTENSITY...BOTH STRENGTHENING AND
WEAKENING. THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN AROUND 10 KT OR
LESS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...SO STRENGTHENING TO HURRICANE
INTENSITY IS FORECAST. AFTER THAT...LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR
IS EXPECTED TO POSSIBLY PUT A CAP ON THE INTENSIFICATION TREND...SO
ONLY SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST IN THE 24-48 HOUR PERIOD...WITH
A LEVELING OFF OF THE INTENSITY AFTER THAT. HOWEVER...IF LISA TAKES
A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK TO THE LEFT OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK
...THEN THE SHEAR WILL BE LESS AND MORE STRENGTHENING WOULD BE
POSSIBLE THAN WHAT THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS INDICATING.
FORECASTER STEWART
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 20/1200Z 13.5N 35.4W 45 KT
12HR VT 20/1800Z 13.6N 36.4W 55 KT
24HR VT 21/0600Z 14.1N 38.2W 65 KT
36HR VT 21/1800Z 14.5N 39.7W 70 KT
48HR VT 22/0600Z 15.0N 41.5W 75 KT
72HR VT 23/0600Z 17.0N 45.0W 75 KT
96HR VT 24/0600Z 18.0N 48.0W 75 KT
120HR VT 25/0600Z 18.5N 51.0W 75 KT
5 day Forecast
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LISA SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM AST MON SEP 20 2004
...TROPICAL STORM LISA DEVELOPS OVER THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AT 8 AM AST...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LISA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 13.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 35.4 WEST OR ABOUT 780
MILES...1255 KM...WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
LISA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR... AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
VARIOUS SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES NOW INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES
... 55 KM FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 8 AM AST POSITION...13.5 N... 35.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 11 AM AST.
FORECASTER STEWART
8 AM Discussion
WTNT43 KNHC 201200
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM LISA SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM EDT MON SEP 20 2004
VARIOUS SATELLITE SOURCES AND INTENSITY ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND HAS
STRENGTHENED. THE FIRST FEW VISIBLE SATELITE IMAGES INDICATE A
BANDING EYE FEATURE IS TRYING TO DEVELOP...AND A 20/0955Z SSMI
OVERPASS REVEALED A SMALL MID-LEVEL EYE WAS PRESENT. SUCH FEATURES
ARE TYPICALLY CHARACTERISTIC OF 45-55 KT TROPICAL CYCLONES. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 45 KT IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY A 20/0902Z
UW-CIMSS AMSU PRESSURE ESTIMATE OF 999.1 MB. THEREFORE...THE
DEPRESSION IS BEING UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM LISA.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/10. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE
PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST OR REASONING. THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS ONLY
TO INDICATE THE INCREASE TO TROPICAL STRENGTH...AND AN INCREASE IN
THE INTENSITY FORECAST.
LISA IS A SMALL AND RATHER COMPACT TROPICAL CYCLONE. AS SUCH...IT IS
SUSCEPTIBLE TO SHARP CHANGES IN INTENSITY...BOTH STRENGTHENING AND
WEAKENING. THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN AROUND 10 KT OR
LESS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...SO STRENGTHENING TO HURRICANE
INTENSITY IS FORECAST. AFTER THAT...LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR
IS EXPECTED TO POSSIBLY PUT A CAP ON THE INTENSIFICATION TREND...SO
ONLY SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST IN THE 24-48 HOUR PERIOD...WITH
A LEVELING OFF OF THE INTENSITY AFTER THAT. HOWEVER...IF LISA TAKES
A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK TO THE LEFT OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK
...THEN THE SHEAR WILL BE LESS AND MORE STRENGTHENING WOULD BE
POSSIBLE THAN WHAT THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS INDICATING.
FORECASTER STEWART
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 20/1200Z 13.5N 35.4W 45 KT
12HR VT 20/1800Z 13.6N 36.4W 55 KT
24HR VT 21/0600Z 14.1N 38.2W 65 KT
36HR VT 21/1800Z 14.5N 39.7W 70 KT
48HR VT 22/0600Z 15.0N 41.5W 75 KT
72HR VT 23/0600Z 17.0N 45.0W 75 KT
96HR VT 24/0600Z 18.0N 48.0W 75 KT
120HR VT 25/0600Z 18.5N 51.0W 75 KT
5 day Forecast
HumanCookie
Mouseketeer
- Joined
- Jan 12, 2004
- Messages
- 329
WTNT33 KNHC 201441
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LISA ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM AST MON SEP 20 2004
...LISA GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LISA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 35.9 WEST OR ABOUT
810 MILES...1305 KM...WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
LISA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR... AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND LISA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY TUESDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES
... 75 KM FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...13.6 N... 35.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 998 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 5 PM AST.
FORECASTER STEWART
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LISA ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM AST MON SEP 20 2004
...LISA GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LISA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 35.9 WEST OR ABOUT
810 MILES...1305 KM...WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
LISA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR... AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND LISA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY TUESDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES
... 75 KM FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...13.6 N... 35.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 998 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 5 PM AST.
FORECASTER STEWART
Miss Jasmine
Time for something new!<BR><font color=limegreen><
- Joined
- May 23, 2001
- Messages
- 16,856
HC, you picked up the 8AM discussion... here is the 11AM.
Tropical Storm Lisa Discussion Number 5
Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on September 20, 2004
Lisa remains a smaller than average tropical cyclone. Banding
features have continued to improve this morning...including and
occasional hint of a banding eye feature in visible imagery.
Microwave imagery from 20/0903z AMSU and 20/0955z SSMI overpasses
revealed a small mid-level eye was present. Such features are
typically associated with 45-55 kt tropical cyclones. The initial
intensity estimate was increased to 50 kt based on recent UW-CIMSS
and CIRA AMSU pressure estimates of 999.1 and 998 mb...
respectively. Therefore...the initial intensity has been made
higher than the Dvorak satellite intensity estimates of 35 kt from
both TAFB and SAB...and 30 kt from AFWA.
The initial motion estimate remains 275/10. There remains no
significant change to the previous track forecast or reasoning.
Lisa is expected to move in a west to west-northwestward motion
throughout the forecast period as the small cyclone moves around
the periphery of a narrow subtropical to the north. The ridge
currently between Lisa and Karl to the northwest is forecast by
most of the models to remain intact to some degree. The NOGAPS
model is the only model that weakens the ridge and pulls Lisa
northward after 72 hours. However...NOGAPS is the only model that
even identifies Lisa beyond 24-36 hours...and it appears to be
suffering from its usual overdevelopment of the cyclone...which
allows Lisa to erode the narrow ridge and move through it. This
solution has been discounted given the current very small diameter
of Lisa...and the strong high pressure system to the north expected
to keep The Diameter of the cyclone smaller than average throughout
the forecast period. The official forecast track is just an update
of the previous track and is close to the GFDL and deep BAM models.
Small compact tropical cyclones like Lisa are susceptible to sharp
changes in intensity...both strengthening and weakening. The
vertical shear is forecast to remain around 10 kt or less for the
next 24 hours...so strengthening into a hurricane seems
likely...perhaps even by later today. By 36 hours...low to moderate
northeasterly vertical shear is expected to inhibit intensification
...So only slow strengthening is forecast in the longer time
periods. If Lisa remains south of 15n latitude where the shear is
expected to be the strongest...then the intensity will lilely be
less than what is currently forecast and indicated by the SHIPS
intensity model.
Forecaster Stewart
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 20/1500z 13.6n 35.9w 50 kt
12hr VT 21/0000z 13.8n 37.3w 55 kt
24hr VT 21/1200z 14.3n 39.1w 65 kt
36hr VT 22/0000z 14.8n 40.6w 70 kt
48hr VT 22/1200z 15.5n 42.4w 75 kt
72hr VT 23/1200z 16.8n 45.5w 75 kt
96hr VT 24/1200z 17.0n 48.5w 75 kt
120hr VT 25/1200z 17.0n 51.5w 75 kt
Tropical Storm Lisa Discussion Number 5
Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on September 20, 2004
Lisa remains a smaller than average tropical cyclone. Banding
features have continued to improve this morning...including and
occasional hint of a banding eye feature in visible imagery.
Microwave imagery from 20/0903z AMSU and 20/0955z SSMI overpasses
revealed a small mid-level eye was present. Such features are
typically associated with 45-55 kt tropical cyclones. The initial
intensity estimate was increased to 50 kt based on recent UW-CIMSS
and CIRA AMSU pressure estimates of 999.1 and 998 mb...
respectively. Therefore...the initial intensity has been made
higher than the Dvorak satellite intensity estimates of 35 kt from
both TAFB and SAB...and 30 kt from AFWA.
The initial motion estimate remains 275/10. There remains no
significant change to the previous track forecast or reasoning.
Lisa is expected to move in a west to west-northwestward motion
throughout the forecast period as the small cyclone moves around
the periphery of a narrow subtropical to the north. The ridge
currently between Lisa and Karl to the northwest is forecast by
most of the models to remain intact to some degree. The NOGAPS
model is the only model that weakens the ridge and pulls Lisa
northward after 72 hours. However...NOGAPS is the only model that
even identifies Lisa beyond 24-36 hours...and it appears to be
suffering from its usual overdevelopment of the cyclone...which
allows Lisa to erode the narrow ridge and move through it. This
solution has been discounted given the current very small diameter
of Lisa...and the strong high pressure system to the north expected
to keep The Diameter of the cyclone smaller than average throughout
the forecast period. The official forecast track is just an update
of the previous track and is close to the GFDL and deep BAM models.
Small compact tropical cyclones like Lisa are susceptible to sharp
changes in intensity...both strengthening and weakening. The
vertical shear is forecast to remain around 10 kt or less for the
next 24 hours...so strengthening into a hurricane seems
likely...perhaps even by later today. By 36 hours...low to moderate
northeasterly vertical shear is expected to inhibit intensification
...So only slow strengthening is forecast in the longer time
periods. If Lisa remains south of 15n latitude where the shear is
expected to be the strongest...then the intensity will lilely be
less than what is currently forecast and indicated by the SHIPS
intensity model.
Forecaster Stewart
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 20/1500z 13.6n 35.9w 50 kt
12hr VT 21/0000z 13.8n 37.3w 55 kt
24hr VT 21/1200z 14.3n 39.1w 65 kt
36hr VT 22/0000z 14.8n 40.6w 70 kt
48hr VT 22/1200z 15.5n 42.4w 75 kt
72hr VT 23/1200z 16.8n 45.5w 75 kt
96hr VT 24/1200z 17.0n 48.5w 75 kt
120hr VT 25/1200z 17.0n 51.5w 75 kt
HumanCookie
Mouseketeer
- Joined
- Jan 12, 2004
- Messages
- 329
WTNT33 KNHC 202038
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LISA ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM AST MON SEP 20 2004
...LISA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LISA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 36.8 WEST OR ABOUT 870
MILES...1395 KM...WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
LISA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR... AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND LISA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY TUESDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES
... 85 KM FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...13.8 N... 36.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 994 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM AST.
FORECASTER STEWART
5 PM Discussion
WTNT43 KNHC 202100
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT MON SEP 20 2004
ALTHOUGH BANDING FEATURES HAVE CONTINUED TO IMPROVE...LISA STILL
REMAINS A SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE BANDING EYE FEATURE OBSERVED
EARLIER TODAY HAS DISSAPEARED UNDER A STRONG BURST OF DEEP
CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER. THE INCREASED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE...
THE INCREASE IN THE CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION...AND A 20/1547Z AQUA1
OVERPASS SHOWING A MID- AND LOW-LEVEL EYE FEATURE ARE MY REASONS
FOR REMAINING HIGHER THAN THE DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 45 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...AND 35 KT FROM AFWA.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/10. THERE REMAINS NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST OR REASONING.
LISA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING IN A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
DIRECTION THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE SMALL CYCLONE MOVES
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A NARROW SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED BETWEEN
LISA AND KARL. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST BY MOST OF THE MODELS TO
REMAIN INTACT...DESPITE THE POOR INITIALIZATION OF THE CYCLONE BY
ALL OF THE MODELS EXCEPT FOR NOGAPS. HOWEVER...THE NOGAPS MODEL
APPEARS TO OVERDEVELOPMENT OF THE CYCLONE...WHICH ALLOWS IT TO
ERODE THE NARROW RIDGE AND MOVE NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH IT. ON THE
OTHER HAND...THE GFDL...GFDN...AND DEEP BAM MODELS MOVE LISA
WESTWARD FOR ABOUT 72 HOURS AND THEN SOUTHWESTWARD AS A RIDGE
DEVELOPS TO THE NORTHWEST. UNTIL THE MODELS COME INTO MORE
REASONABLE AGREEMENT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACKS AND FOLLOWS THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN OF ENOUGH
RIDGING KEEPING THE VERY SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVING WESTWARD...
WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS SOME.
COMPACT TROPICAL CYCLONES LIKE CAN STRENGTHEN FAIRLY QUICKLY...BUT
CAN ALSO WEAKEN JUST AS FAST. THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN AROUND 10 KT OR LESS FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS...WHICH MAY
ALLOW LISA TO STRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT OR TUESDAY.
AFTERWARDS 36 HOURS...LOW TO MODERATE NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY
VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INHIBIT THE INTENSIFICATION
INTENSIFICATION PROCESS...BUT NOT AS MUCH AS IF IT WAS WESTERLY
SHEAR. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
INTENSITY FORECAST...WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL...BUT
MUCH HIGHER THAN THE GFDL MODEL.
FORECASTER STEWART
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 20/2100Z 13.8N 36.8W 55 KT
12HR VT 21/0600Z 14.1N 38.2W 65 KT
24HR VT 21/1800Z 14.6N 39.9W 70 KT
36HR VT 22/0600Z 15.2N 41.6W 75 KT
48HR VT 22/1800Z 15.9N 43.2W 75 KT
72HR VT 23/1800Z 16.7N 46.0W 80 KT
96HR VT 24/1800Z 17.0N 49.0W 75 KT
120HR VT 25/1800Z 17.0N 52.0W 75 KT
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LISA ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM AST MON SEP 20 2004
...LISA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LISA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 36.8 WEST OR ABOUT 870
MILES...1395 KM...WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
LISA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR... AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND LISA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY TUESDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES
... 85 KM FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...13.8 N... 36.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 994 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM AST.
FORECASTER STEWART
5 PM Discussion
WTNT43 KNHC 202100
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT MON SEP 20 2004
ALTHOUGH BANDING FEATURES HAVE CONTINUED TO IMPROVE...LISA STILL
REMAINS A SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE BANDING EYE FEATURE OBSERVED
EARLIER TODAY HAS DISSAPEARED UNDER A STRONG BURST OF DEEP
CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER. THE INCREASED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE...
THE INCREASE IN THE CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION...AND A 20/1547Z AQUA1
OVERPASS SHOWING A MID- AND LOW-LEVEL EYE FEATURE ARE MY REASONS
FOR REMAINING HIGHER THAN THE DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 45 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...AND 35 KT FROM AFWA.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/10. THERE REMAINS NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST OR REASONING.
LISA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING IN A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
DIRECTION THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE SMALL CYCLONE MOVES
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A NARROW SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED BETWEEN
LISA AND KARL. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST BY MOST OF THE MODELS TO
REMAIN INTACT...DESPITE THE POOR INITIALIZATION OF THE CYCLONE BY
ALL OF THE MODELS EXCEPT FOR NOGAPS. HOWEVER...THE NOGAPS MODEL
APPEARS TO OVERDEVELOPMENT OF THE CYCLONE...WHICH ALLOWS IT TO
ERODE THE NARROW RIDGE AND MOVE NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH IT. ON THE
OTHER HAND...THE GFDL...GFDN...AND DEEP BAM MODELS MOVE LISA
WESTWARD FOR ABOUT 72 HOURS AND THEN SOUTHWESTWARD AS A RIDGE
DEVELOPS TO THE NORTHWEST. UNTIL THE MODELS COME INTO MORE
REASONABLE AGREEMENT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACKS AND FOLLOWS THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN OF ENOUGH
RIDGING KEEPING THE VERY SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVING WESTWARD...
WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS SOME.
COMPACT TROPICAL CYCLONES LIKE CAN STRENGTHEN FAIRLY QUICKLY...BUT
CAN ALSO WEAKEN JUST AS FAST. THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN AROUND 10 KT OR LESS FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS...WHICH MAY
ALLOW LISA TO STRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT OR TUESDAY.
AFTERWARDS 36 HOURS...LOW TO MODERATE NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY
VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INHIBIT THE INTENSIFICATION
INTENSIFICATION PROCESS...BUT NOT AS MUCH AS IF IT WAS WESTERLY
SHEAR. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
INTENSITY FORECAST...WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL...BUT
MUCH HIGHER THAN THE GFDL MODEL.
FORECASTER STEWART
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 20/2100Z 13.8N 36.8W 55 KT
12HR VT 21/0600Z 14.1N 38.2W 65 KT
24HR VT 21/1800Z 14.6N 39.9W 70 KT
36HR VT 22/0600Z 15.2N 41.6W 75 KT
48HR VT 22/1800Z 15.9N 43.2W 75 KT
72HR VT 23/1800Z 16.7N 46.0W 80 KT
96HR VT 24/1800Z 17.0N 49.0W 75 KT
120HR VT 25/1800Z 17.0N 52.0W 75 KT
mamalle
DIS Veteran
- Joined
- May 29, 2004
- Messages
- 3,830
its still a good week to 10 days out our weatherman said on the 5pm news. I told dh if it does come it will be the mother of all huricanes since it bears my name
anyhow right now we are getting hit with alot of rain here in south fla thanks to good ole Ivan. cant believe he is still around 
anyhow right now we are getting hit with alot of rain here in south fla thanks to good ole Ivan. cant believe he is still around Lisa loves Pooh
DIS Legend
- Joined
- Apr 18, 2004
- Messages
- 40,443
Maybe I just got a little too excited at the beginning of the season when I saw my name on the list...
Anyone know the highest on record they gotten in the alphabet...Luckily only 10 days more in September--the busiest month of the season.
But still two more months to go
Anyone know the highest on record they gotten in the alphabet...Luckily only 10 days more in September--the busiest month of the season.
But still two more months to go
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