Tropical Storm Emily -- Saturday update in Post #9 -- NO threat

[JimMIA]

The news media is now starting to hype Tropical Storm Emily. Emily doesn't look like she'll be any threat to the US, but that won't stop the TV folks from trying to sell their sponsors products!

Emily is now south of Puerto Rico, but will be turning NW and passing over Hispaniola (Haiti and the Dominican Republic). Some forecasting models show Emily breaking up over the mountainous areas of Hispaniola, but the official forecast is that she emerges off the north side of the island and then re-intensifies to tropical storm strength.

The official forecast projects Emily passing quite a distance east of the East Coast of Florida on Saturday. It looks mostly like a rain event at this point, and may not even affect WDW weather much at all.

However, along the East Coast of Florida, the easterly winds of a storm passing offshore are likely to create dangerous rip tides along our beaches. Saturday would be an excellent inside or pool day at VB -- not a beach day.

For accurate information without the hype, go to www.nhc.noaa.gov (the National Hurricane Center site) or Weather Underground at www.wunderground.com/tropical

 

[Deb & Bill]

Send a little rain our way, please. We're very, very dry here in Louisiana.

 

[delaneyc52]

Oh please not VB! Last time that resort was hit our dues went sky high.

 

[Jaaron2]

We fly in on Saturday! I hope your right!!!

 

[JimMIA]

Send a little rain our way, please. We're very, very dry here in Louisiana.

Be careful what you wish for, Deb! Does the name Katrina ring a bell?

 

[Deb & Bill]

Be careful what you wish for, Deb! Does the name Katrina ring a bell?

Yeah, and Rita, and Ike and Gustav. But we really do need the rain. We've had 33 days of 100+ temps so far this summer and it's going to be 109 today.

Actually the last time the weather service used the name was Emily in 2005, same year as Katrina and Rita.

 

[bgraham34]

They still are unsure of the projections. My buddys friend at NOAA said there are a few tracks it still can take and some can be hitting Florida.

 

[JimMIA]

Emily has proven to be a rather difficult young lady to predict. The system has been sitting pretty close to Hispaniola (Haiti & DR) without moving as much as expected. After spending some time stationary, she's now moving again and is hopefully starting to make a right turn that will take her NW, then North, and finally NE.

Emily still looks like a non-event for Florida at this point. The wind probabllities for the SE coast of Florida from about Melbourne south are currently a 20-30% chance of tropical storm force winds (34 Kt/39 MPH). For Central Florida, including WDW, the probability now is 10-20% TS force winds. Both of those probabilities are for Saturday afternoon. There are currently no Watches or Warnings of any kind for any part of Florida.

Of course, the forecast will change and a lot will depend on exactly Emily goes from here. We don't really know what she's going to do, and it's going to be a wait-and-see thing until her path is more clear.

Emily should be beyond Hispaniola and Cuba by tomorrow morning, and by Noon tomorrow we should have a much better idea of what she's going to do.

 

[JimMIA]

Just a quick update. Emily is trying to re-form, but will pose NO threat.

If you've been following Emily, you know she dissipated over the mountains of Hispaniola on Thursday. The system has now moved into the central Bahamas and is beginning to reorganize a little.

The National Hurricane Center says there's a 70+% chance that the system will regain enough circulation to be classified as a tropical cyclone sometime today or tonight. However, weather conditions are not favorable for much strengthening and the system will probably only achieve tropical depression status. It may not have any effect on Florida at all; if it has any, it will probably only be some rain.

If the pattern predicted for Emily earlier holds, she should move north of the Bahamas tomorrow and then start to move away from the US to the NE.