Tropical Storm Colin...he's B-A-A-A-C-K

[JimMIA]

Tropical Depression Four has formed in the Atlantic, and is expected to develop into a tropical storm...possibly as early as tonight.

However, the system is very far away and the projected track does not bring it near the US mainland. It looks likely to recurve to the NE and become more of a threat to Bermuda than anywhere else -- and that wouldn't be until early next week probably.

I wouldn't worry about this system at this point. Unless it makes a radical turn, it will be a non-issue.

But as always, once it gets a name (It will be TS Colin), the news media will start hyping it for all they're worth.

 

[Goofy DVC]

JIMMIA, You've become my new Fla. weather authority. I no longer check the media. They've scared me half to death before only to be completely wrong. Thanks for all your help!

 

[LoveKermit]

We leave the 13th for WDW. Our hope is a beach day in Clearwater on the 15th. Keep us posted!

Thanks!

 

[jlewisinsyr]

www.nhc.noaa.gov

All the resources anyone needs.

 

[JimMIA]

www.nhc.noaa.gov

All the resources anyone needs.

Yep...and/or http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/

I like them both -- Weather Underground for readability and NHC for mind-numbing depth (which you need sometimes).

 

[Deb & Bill]

Then there is Jim Cantore....

(I thought I would never use that dancing banana)

 

[DenLo]

Based on the NHC information it looks that next week TD4 could be NC that would be affect with Bermuda just on the north edge. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/143313.shtml?5-daynl#contents

But what it looks like now can drastically change within days or sometimes hours. Living in southern Greater Houston area, we always keep an eye on the possibilities. And since Tropical Storm Allison, which caused a mere $5 billion in flood damage here in Houston, so just because it's not a hurricane doesn't mean much to me.

 

[JimMIA]

Based on the NHC information it looks that next week TD4 could be NC that would be affect with Bermuda just on the north edge. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/143313.shtml?5-daynl#contents

But what it looks like now can drastically change within days or sometimes hours. Living in southern Greater Houston area, we always keep an eye on the possibilities. And since Tropical Storm Allison, which caused a mere $5 billion in flood damage here in Houston, so just because it's not a hurricane doesn't mean much to me.

I just looked at Google Earth to see how far away the 5-day forecast is. The northern edge of the "cone of uncertainty" is estimated at about 32N, 72 W on Saturday morning. That's about 300 miles SE of the Outer Banks of NC, at the closest NHC expects. Of course, at 5 days out, there is very wide variance, but this is using their furthest projection toward NC which assumes a 250-300 mile variance. The system could just as easily be 500-600 miles from NC on Sat, with the same degree of uncertainty.

Usually when storms approach on that trajectory, they recurve back out over the Atlantic and that is what most of the models suggest. (Last year one went that way and hit Portugal!)

NHC's official forecast track is on the left (west) side of most of the models, following the natural tendency to be as conservative as possible so people don't get caught unawares. But unless this thing changes radically, it doesn't look like much of a threat.

 

[Anal Annie]

Oh I am already watching this sucker on TWC as we're making our first visit to HHI starting on the 14th!! It would be JUST our luck to have it impact SC on the one time I didn't buy the stooopid trip insurance for our points!!

 

[JimMIA]

Oh I am already watching this sucker on TWC as we're making our first visit to HHI starting on the 14th!! It would be JUST our luck to have it impact SC on the one time I didn't buy the stooopid trip insurance for our points!!

It's going bye-bye, Annie. Not to worry.

Moving farther away and never was going to be an issue for HHI anyway. And even if it had been a threat, it would have been gone long before the 14th.

We'll have a new one for you by the 14th....naw, just playin'!

And turn The Weather Channel off! They're just selling Viagra and don't even get me started about their ethics!

 

[bookwormde]

We are going to outer banks on the 14th, hopefully the surf will have settled down and the water will have wamed back up by then. (august, I have my trp insurance)

bookwormde

 

[JimMIA]

Nothing new this AM, except that the system strengthened to Tropical Storm status as expected. It is now Tropical Storm Colin, with winds of 40 MPH.

Still no threat.

 

[WolfpackFan]

Well I have to say, I'm not as optimistic as JimMIA. I looked at the models and half of them appear to be heading towards us (NC) and the other half towards Bermuda and recurving. Our local weather folks aren't committing one way or the other yet. They say it's too far off to say it's not going to affect us. Colin looks like it is coming from the same area Hurricane Fran did and I remember spending a terrible night when it went right over our house and just waiting for a tree to fall on the house (while DS and DD slept of course ). I'll feel a whole lot better once that thing starts to recurve for certain and gets up above our latitude. I hate hurricane season. I told DD30 when one is heading our way this year we're coming over to her apartment to sit it out, rather than sit here in our house and hear trees fall all around us.

 

[JimMIA]

Just so everyone knows, since this is a DIS DVC board, I always limit my hurricane stuff to the DVC resorts that might be affected -- WDW resorts, VB, and HHI.

Whatever I post is only referring to those locations.

 

[Anal Annie]

Well I have to say, I'm not as optimistic as JimMIA. I looked at the models and half of them appear to be heading towards us (NC) and the other half towards Bermuda and recurving. Our local weather folks aren't committing one way or the other yet. They say it's too far off to say it's not going to affect us. Colin looks like it is coming from the same area Hurricane Fran did and I remember spending a terrible night when it went right over our house and just waiting for a tree to fall on the house (while DS and DD slept of course ). I'll feel a whole lot better once that thing starts to recurve for certain and gets up above our latitude. I hate hurricane season. I told DD30 when one is heading our way this year we're coming over to her apartment to sit it out, rather than sit here in our house and hear trees fall all around us.

Just watched some tropical update stuff on TWC (JimMIA - Viagra or not they are what I have avail. to watch right now). They just said that Colin is moving so fast that it's having trouble staying together and that it may not even have a center of circulation any more!! That's not to say that it couldn't re-group again in a day or two but for now it's looking like it could even fall apart. So let's be hopeful it's a non-issue! (I will be watching for the NEXT wave that comes off the coast of Africa!)

 

[JimMIA]

Just watched some tropical update stuff on TWC (JimMIA - Viagra or not they are what I have avail. to watch right now). They just said that Colin is moving so fast that it's having trouble staying together and that it may not even have a center of circulation any more!! That's not to say that it couldn't re-group again in a day or two but for now it's looking like it could even fall apart. So let's be hopeful it's a non-issue! (I will be watching for the NEXT wave that comes off the coast of Africa!)

Yeah, it's been moving about 20 Kt, which is fast, and it's also getting some significant shear. However, I just looked at it on satellite and it looks like it still has closed circulation to me. It's a very small storm, and it's often difficult to see the circulation because of other clouds, but right now it looks like a nice tight little circulation.

 

[Sammie]

Anything forming out there for next week? How long does it take for a large storm to form, for example at what point did the experts start watching Andrew or Katrina even before they were named?

 

[JimMIA]

Anything forming out there for next week? How long does it take for a large storm to form, for example at what point did the experts start watching Andrew or Katrina even before they were named?

How long it takes depends on where the system originates, general conditions across a very wide area, how fast the system is moving, what else is going on in that region of the world, and many other factors.

Before we talk about specific systems, though, you have to realize that the NHC is constantly monitoring the tropics whether there are any systems around or not. So they usually have a very good idea when and where something is likely to pop up. This time of year, most (but not all) systems pop up off the West Coast of Africa in the area of the Cape Verde Islands. From October on, most (but not all) systems originate in the Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico.

With Colin, the NHC has been watching that system since it emerged from Africa as a low pressure area. It was dubbed 91L, I believe. This particular system was moving pretty quickly, but it still took it 4-5 days to move from Africa to within striking distance of the Lesser Antilles. At that point, it was still just a wave with <30 MPH winds, but it looked likely that conditions for development would improve a bit (but not much).

Within about 48 hours, it went from a wave to Tropical Depression #4 to Tropical Storm Colin. NHC actually expected Colin to develop 12 hours of so sooner, but it didn't. Conditions are not going to get very favorable for Colin, and NHC does not expect it to get any stronger than 50 MPH, and even that they say may be "generous."

Major storms often go through multiple stages. Katrina in 2005, for example, was a barely-hurricane Category One when it struck South Florida. After passing around the southern tip of Florida, Katrina took 5-6 days to move north to its eventual final landfall in FL, AL, MS, and LA. In that period, Katrina went from a Cat 1 to Cat 5 and then back to a strong Cat 3 just before landfall. Katrina is really a good storm to look at because it made several abrupt changes of direction (did a 90 degree left turn at Ft. Lauderdale) and underwent a bunch of changes over the 3 weeks or so the NHC was tracking it.

 

[JimMIA]

As far as your question about the next week or so, who knows?

Colin has deteriorated to a low-pressure area but is not expected to really go away. It's expected to continue to the NW and possibly strenghten to a Tropical Depression about 4 1/2 days from now.

NHC is watching three other tropical waves currently -- one coming off the coast of Africa, one off the coast of Venezuela, and one in the area of Guatemala. Way too early to tell if any of those will develop into anything.

 

[JimMIA]

As expected, Colin is back but well offshore due north of Puerto Rico and headed northward. The storm is expected to gradually recurve to the NE and threaten Bermuda with tropical storm winds on Saturday.

No threat is expected to the U.S.