TP- what crazy math are you using??

[NEMouse]

I received an email today that one of my park days (April 19) has downgraded the overall crowd level at WDW from 3 to 2. Then I looked at park reservations and 2 of 4 parks are filled for the day. Yesterday only 1 of the parks was filled so it got busier with more reservations and the crowd level went down?

This is not changing my plans and I am utilizing TP for wait times, not necessarily crowd calendars but TP's change seems to contradict the park availability. Any idea on what factors are used in computing the crowd level? I know it's all a guessing game at best now anyway...

 

[Welsh_Dragon]

I received an email today that one of my park days (April 19) has downgraded the overall crowd level at WDW from 3 to 2. Then I looked at park reservations and 2 of 4 parks are filled for the day. Yesterday only 1 of the parks was filled so it got busier with more reservations and the crowd level went down?

This is not changing my plans and I am utilizing TP for wait times, not necessarily crowd calendars but TP's change seems to contradict the park availability. Any idea on what factors are used in computing the crowd level? I know it's all a guessing game at best now anyway...

Why don’t you ask on the TP site? Just tag Brian or Len and I am sure that they will answer.

 

[NEMouse]

Why don’t you ask on the TP site? Just tag Brian or Len and I am sure that they will answer.

Didn't know that was there, thanks

 

[ajgardner]

If you get a response, I’d love to hear!

 

[MinnieMSue]

Idk but it was sold out yesterday and today (HS and AK) and we never waited very long in lines. Some lines did get long but they went down later. Safari was walk on as was Everest around dinner time. I never saw Everest longer than 30 minutes all day. We were in line past Nemo and it was only 20 min. Now I will say at Studios, ToT and slinky built up some longer lines around the hour mark to a bit longer but most everything else was manageable. I think we did wait 45 min for smugglers run. That was the longest wait we had all day. Studios felt more crowded than AK did. We thought everything was completely manageable. We did everything at both parks and many things more than once.

 

[Upatnoon]

Maybe they get bored putting in the same numbers up every day and like to shake things up by changing a 2 to a 3 or 3 to a 2.

If you looked at the TP calendar and every number was the same for every day, you'd get suspicious that they weren't doing anything. Why would anyone pay for a stale list?

As for how they come up with the numbers, maybe they check the weather as fewer people will likely visit if it's raining.

 

[Tom_E_D]

Maybe they get bored putting in the same numbers up every day and like to shake things up by changing a 2 to a 3 or 3 to a 2.

If you looked at the TP calendar and every number was the same for every day, you'd get suspicious that they weren't doing anything. Why would anyone pay for a stale list?

As for how they come up with the numbers, maybe they check the weather as fewer people will likely visit if it's raining.

If they have a weather forecaster that's accurate four weeks ahead of date, it alone would be worth their subscription fee.

 

[Welsh_Dragon]

Didn't know that was there, thanks

On the TP forum or chat just tag @Len or @Brian. You may find that other TP ‘loyalists’ pile in. Alternatively, TP are on Instagram and they both have ‘work’ Twitter accounts (@LenTesta, @YesThatBrian). Good luck.

 

[gharter]

Similar thoughts. I just got an update for our week and AK is now a 1 for almost the entire week?
I hope they are correct, but find that hard to believe.

 

[Upatnoon]

Similar thoughts. I just got an update for our week and AK is now a 1 for almost the entire week?
I hope they are correct, but find that hard to believe.

This is the point I was trying to make earlier. They have to adjust the numbers a bit or they don't look believable.

 

[gharter]

This is the point I was trying to make earlier. They have to adjust the numbers a bit or they don't look believable.

In all the years we have been there, I don't think I've ever seen a "1". Certainly not this time of year.

 

[lentesta]

In all the years we have been there, I don't think I've ever seen a "1". Certainly not this time of year.

As we've measured posted wait times at the Animal Kingdom daily, those waits have worked out to a '1' for the past four days. The highest crowd level we've seen at the AK in 2021, based on Disney's posted wait times, is a 5 out of 10 on Jan 2, and that's the only 5 of the year. The average crowd level for the AK in 2021 is under 2.

The average crowd level for the MK and DHS this month is about a 3.

The 35% capacity cap on guests is the big thing driving the crowd levels right now. I think many, if not most, WDW rides are operating at around 80% of their pre-pandemic levels. For example, we counted about 1,300 guests per hour coming off of Runaway Railway yesterday; the highest MMRR rider count we've ever seen in an hour is 1,516, so MMRR is running just under 87% of its pre-pandemic capacity.

So you've got 80%+ of a park's peak ride capacity available, but attendance is capped at 35% of peak. That's the primary reason the crowd levels are low.

The other thing I'll add is that Disney's posted wait times seem to be inflated these days, probably as a line management tool. The graph below shows Big Thunder's posted wait times as black dots on a pink line. The green dots are actual wait times TP got through its app.



So the average posted wait time for Big Thunder yesterday was around 35 minutes. The average actual wait, as far as we can tell, was around 15.

On the same day in 2019, the average posted wait at Big Thunder was around 100 minutes, with a peak posted wait time of 180.



So @gharter is right - we haven't seen crowds like this at this time of year in a while.

 

[beesly]

So @gharter is right - we haven't seen crowds like this at this time of year in a while.

@lentesta came in here like

 

[wilbret]

In all the years we have been there, I don't think I've ever seen a "1". Certainly not this time of year.

We went 2 years a row with hurricanes heading in (October), and just risked it. It was glorious, lol. At one point, 7DMT was get off and get back in line. I think we rode it 5 times. Those were definitely "1" days.

 

[Brett Wyman]

I received an email today that one of my park days (April 19) has downgraded the overall crowd level at WDW from 3 to 2. Then I looked at park reservations and 2 of 4 parks are filled for the day. Yesterday only 1 of the parks was filled so it got busier with more reservations and the crowd level went down?

This is not changing my plans and I am utilizing TP for wait times, not necessarily crowd calendars but TP's change seems to contradict the park availability. Any idea on what factors are used in computing the crowd level? I know it's all a guessing game at best now anyway...

TP always shows their math, so to speak, via their blog.

https://touringplans.com/blog/
https://touringplans.com/blog/2021/03/24/disney-world-crowd-calendar-update-for-april-2021/ <-- Latest Update

 

[gharter]

As we've measured posted wait times at the Animal Kingdom daily, those waits have worked out to a '1' for the past four days. The highest crowd level we've seen at the AK in 2021, based on Disney's posted wait times, is a 5 out of 10 on Jan 2, and that's the only 5 of the year. The average crowd level for the AK in 2021 is under 2.

The average crowd level for the MK and DHS this month is about a 3.

The 35% capacity cap on guests is the big thing driving the crowd levels right now. I think many, if not most, WDW rides are operating at around 80% of their pre-pandemic levels. For example, we counted about 1,300 guests per hour coming off of Runaway Railway yesterday; the highest MMRR rider count we've ever seen in an hour is 1,516, so MMRR is running just under 87% of its pre-pandemic capacity.

So you've got 80%+ of a park's peak ride capacity available, but attendance is capped at 35% of peak. That's the primary reason the crowd levels are low.

The other thing I'll add is that Disney's posted wait times seem to be inflated these days, probably as a line management tool. The graph below shows Big Thunder's posted wait times as black dots on a pink line. The green dots are actual wait times TP got through its app.

View attachment 565298

So the average posted wait time for Big Thunder yesterday was around 35 minutes. The average actual wait, as far as we can tell, was around 15.

On the same day in 2019, the average posted wait at Big Thunder was around 100 minutes, with a peak posted wait time of 180.

View attachment 565299

So @gharter is right - we haven't seen crowds like this at this time of year in a while.

Thanks, nice to see what that based on. Hoping you are correct for our trip.

 

[lentesta]

Thanks, nice to see what that based on. Hoping you are correct for our trip.

Man, I'm hoping we're correct too. Let me know if there's anything I can help with for your trip. And please re-optimize your touring plan after the first step.