TP July predictions...

[glocon]

I was just looking at July 2019 hours and crowd predictions in TP... they are predicting crowd levels of 3-5 from 7/25-7/29. I know those are just predictions, but that seems awfully low.
Do y’all think this is accurate?
I hope so, but we were there at the same last year and it was pretty crowded.

 

[Vertical]

It's hard to say. But the fact that they are offering Free Dining that early and up to 40% off for AP rates through June, it make me think that bookings are low leading up to SWGE.

 

[hiroMYhero]

I was just looking at July 2019 hours and crowd predictions in TP... they are predicting crowd levels of 3-5 from 7/25-7/29. I know those are just predictions, but that seems awfully low.
Do y’all think this is accurate?
I hope so, but we were there at the same last year and it was pretty crowded.

TP has a forum where their Crowd Predictions are discussed:
https://forum.touringplans.com/c/walt-disney-world/crowd-calendar

 

[ArielSRL]

Summer is on the downtrend and this year even more so because of those waiting on SW:GE.

 

[glocon]

Summer is on the downtrend and this year even more so because of those waiting on SW:GE.

I hope these predictions are true then!
And thanks for the link hiromyhero.

 

[_19disnA]

Those 3rd party crowd estimates are nothing more then guesses based on past attendance and perhaps what special events might be going on at that time. Honestly, even disney can't know who with an AP from the local area plans to show up on a given day or who is staying at a non-disney resort and plans to visit the parks. Even if staying at a disney resort, unless you have booked some fastpasses, they also would have no way to know which park(s) you might plan to attend. While those estimates may be fun to look at, I certainly wouldn't book my vacation just based on that information. Lots of older threads on this topic.

 

[Cinderumbrella]

With no disrespect to TP, those numbers will change a few times before your trip. They are always tweaking (sometimes drastically).

 

[StageTek]

I was just looking at July 2019 hours and crowd predictions in TP... they are predicting crowd levels of 3-5 from 7/25-7/29. I know those are just predictions, but that seems awfully low.
Do y’all think this is accurate?
I hope so, but we were there at the same last year and it was pretty crowded.

It is not accurate. You are right; those are just predictions 6 months out. As we get closer to July 2019 those numbers will change.

When I decided to go in early Feb 2019 (this was in August 2018) TP predicted 2's to 4's. Now it's 6's to 9's.

 

[glocon]

We are going July 25-29 at any rate, just hoping for the low crowds. I can see that many might wait until later in the year when the new attractions open, so maybe we will have some lower attendance numbers. For that short trip, I was just trying to figure out which park which day. And maybe make some adr’s since it’s 180 days out now. It doesn’t look like a large spread between the parks so maybe it doesn’t matter so much which park which day.

 

[SaintsManiac]

It will be busy.

Crowd calendars are not accurate.

 

[WEDWDW]

And The 15s always make July "feel' crowded!lol

 

[FCDub]

Wish the crowd calendars would just go away completely.

 

[mommajo143]

The low numbers trended up slightly after the FD promo dust settled but they are still relatively low for summer. I think the lower crowds being predicted is due to 2 things - in order : SWGE opening in fall & seasonal pricing. But mostly Star Wars Galaxys Edge.

 

[PrincessWithABlaster]

We are going July 25-29 at any rate, just hoping for the low crowds. I can see that many might wait until later in the year when the new attractions open, so maybe we will have some lower attendance numbers. For that short trip, I was just trying to figure out which park which day. And maybe make some adr’s since it’s 180 days out now. It doesn’t look like a large spread between the parks so maybe it doesn’t matter so much which park which day.

In general I believe it's true that once you've picked a time to go there typically isn't a huge spread between parks. I'm a fan of statistical model based predictions - everyone in the world uses them, from fortune 500 companies, to governments to your weather people. They are not guesses. But I don't think the spread of attendance in the parks normally warrants getting too worried about which day to go where.

All that said, I noticed that Fri Epcot was a 2 and AK was a 9. I don't have the ability to say if TP predicted that but if so that would have been a coup.

 

[Timothy02359]

Crowd calendars are like the Weatherman...usually wrong.

 

[yulilin3]

I was just looking at July 2019 hours and crowd predictions in TP... they are predicting crowd levels of 3-5 from 7/25-7/29. I know those are just predictions, but that seems awfully low.
Do y’all think this is accurate?
I hope so, but we were there at the same last year and it was pretty crowded.

My advice nowadays is always expect the parks to be crowded and plain accordingly. If you want to use TP as an idea of which park to visit each day go for it, but always plan for high crowds

 

[holden]

It will be crowded no matter what they predict. Expect long lines.

The only thing you can predict about WDW in July is that it will be uncomfortably hot.

 

[cruisin5]

Crowd predictions = snake oil.

 

[larry47591]

We will be there too. Went same time last year and it was pretty dead. I would expect the Same this year. Not sure it was 3-5 dead, but it was way better than I excepted

 

[glocon]

We went same time last year and found it more crowded then expected. And really really hot. But going back this year because that’s what works for us. I had hoped that crowds would be lower this year, but didn’t think that low was realistic. I’m sure many are holding off for sw land, so maybe it will be quieter than last year after all, just not THAT quiet. We had a great time and just adjusted for the heat by taking breaks and lots of fluid. But it is a crowded time of year as expected, just hoping for an anomaly this year. A girl can dream...