Touringplans Failed Me

[P00H1010]

It really is a roll of the dice no matter who you pick..... We buy park hoppers so if we need to switch we can

Agreed. I know a lot of research goes into crowd predictions and I would say they are probably generally good at predicting....but it is just that- a prediction. It could be right or could be wrong. Unfortunately for the OP it streered them wrong.

Everyone plans and tours differently and there isn't a right or wrong way....for us we do minimal planning. I have never used a crowd calander and are avid park hoppers so we do have the option to leave if we feel it is too busy. But having said that I have only done 10 day trips, if we were doing a short trip I might look at them....seems kinda stressful though to plan around crowd calanders and such but that is just me. More power to ya to those who do.

 

[Tarheel girl 1975]

Okay, I'm sorry, but did none of you notice the veritable SEA of gigantic bows and matching warm-ups at DHS yesterday, and the fact that Indiana Jones was closed?

We were at WDW yesterday. There was a huge high school cheerleading competition. All of the teams were roaming DHS (and a few in Epcot) when they weren't performing, and THAT drove the lines up. Obviously TouringPlans should have taken that into consideration when they made crowd level predictions, but seriously, there's NO way of knowing how many teams will be 'off' at any time and what ride they'll all run to, since they tend to roam in packs.

Sick of seeing people blaming FP+ when there's obviously another factor at play here. Should have been obvious.

Considering that Touring Plans predicts crowd using an algorithm that takes historical crowds and wait times into account, I don't see why it's a stretch to say that the the introduction of FP+ could throw off some predictions. They were off on their prediction for RnRC by 18 minutes (avg. wait time.) Interestingly enough, TSMM had slightly lower wait times than predicted. Len Testa has said that the hardest thing to predict is how people would react to only being able to FP one tier one attraction.

 

[Viva Las Disney]

TP failed me this past week, too. But then, so did EasyWDW. I used EasyWDW's park recommendations for each day and then set up a TP for that park.

That didn't work out very well at all.

This is my strategy also, EasyWDW to pick days and then TP to plan the days, I get park hoppers so I always have that as a backup.

I prefer EasyWDW because he explains his predictions and I like seeing the logic behind how he decides, he's very reliable.

 

[dansyr2514]

In defense of touring plans with the cheerleading and dance competitions. Competition schedules are not finalized until a few days before and I doubt they call touring plans to let them know when the teams will be competing and when they won't.

 

[Alice Royal]

In defense of touring plans with the cheerleading and dance competitions. Competition schedules are not finalized until a few days before and I doubt they call touring plans to let them know when the teams will be competing and when they won't.

Exactly. I'm not defending the cheerleaders, but it's not an event with a set schedule for every set of them. No algorithm can predict how many teams are going to be off and in the parks, or how long they'll be out, or where they'll go.

 

[larryz]

Yep. Have been steered wrong by EasyWDW, but not TP. Just the way the cookie crumbles.

And is the cookie moist? And does it crumble in big pieces, or little pieces?

If I'm going to get steered wrong, I'd rather it be by someone who's not charging me for the privilege.

 

[mesaboy2]

And is the cookie moist? And does it crumble in big pieces, or little pieces?

If I'm going to get steered wrong, I'd rather it be by someone who's not charging me for the privilege.

Amen brotha. Preach on.

If I had to pay to get a meteorologist's predictions, guess which meteorologist I'm least likely to pay attention to....

 

[Silock]

And is the cookie moist? And does it crumble in big pieces, or little pieces?

If I'm going to get steered wrong, I'd rather it be by someone who's not charging me for the privilege.

To be fair, they do have a money back guarantee.

 

[MyTwoPrincesses]

Meh, crowd predictions are just that - predictions. I agree with PPs that FPP makes it hard to rely on past years to predict because we still don't know how FPP - and tiering, in particular, will impact wait times and crowds. I am basically picking what fits best in my schedule (and skipping any park with a morning EMH) while also paying attention to both TP.com and EasyWDW. I mainly pay for TP.com because I like the app and the Lines chat. The predictions are just a bonus for me.

 

[Belle & Ariel]

If you do a search here going back 5 + years you will find hundreds if not thousands of posts of people complaining about bad advice from touringplans. I know we have not felt them to be reliable.
They were not dependable long before FP+. It just makes it harder for them.

 

[Missyrose]

If you do a search here going back 5 + years you will find hundreds if not thousands of posts of people complaining about bad advice from touringplans. I know we have not felt them to be reliable.
They were not dependable long before FP+. It just makes it harder for them.

And you would also find probably an equal number who swear by them and have found their services useful for years. Sometimes they get it right and sometimes they're wrong. But their good (crowd calendar, Lines app, etc.) make it a worthy planning tool for me. I also use Josh's recommendations when picking park days.

 

[GAN]

I tend to use both -when I find they both agree, then that day is a lock. If they differ totally, I base on my schedule. I really don't think one is any better than the other predicting, but I'm willing to pay for TP because their lines app is hands down the best out there. For a dollar or two a day I'm not complaining.

 

[Tarheel girl 1975]

And is the cookie moist? And does it crumble in big pieces, or little pieces?

If I'm going to get steered wrong, I'd rather it be by someone who's not charging me for the privilege.

If I was only paying for crowd predictions, maybe I would feel differently. But my $10 yearly subscription ( there is almost always a discount code available) I get access to their touring plans, the ability to make customized touring plans, and a great app.

 

[Kristine316]

Well, I use both TP and Easywdw but, I am starting to lose a little faith in TP.

I am trying to reschedule a trip we were suppose to have taken this past week but, had to cancel. I have been through Easywdw and TP's crowd calendars with a fine tooth comb. Even though I have no plan to head to WDW in the summer I have gone through the crowd calendars for that period. Did you know TP has several 4's and 5's predicted for July, and some of those right after the 4th? Really? I find that really difficult to believe. Maybe I am wrong in my thinking? I wonder why they have it predicted to be so low? It is very curious. EasyWDW has much higher crowd predictions for the same period, just to note.

I wonder if they think HP2 opening at Universal would draw crowds away from Disney?? I figured it would mean even more Disney crowds because I assume many families go to both WDW and Universal in a vacation and we all know there will be massive amounts of people flocking to Universal this summer, I sort of thought WDW would benefit. I may be way off on that.

 

[Yellowstonetim]

I tend to use both -when I find they both agree, then that day is a lock. If they differ totally, I base on my schedule. I really don't think one is any better than the other predicting, but I'm willing to pay for TP because their lines app is hands down the best out there. For a dollar or two a day I'm not complaining.

I think using both is a great idea, we do too. There are many advantages to TP's app, and EasyWDW has good info too. I like to compare the two because Easy is more of a non-scientific seat-of-your-pants attempt to predict crowds while TP's is a scientific approach using algorithms. Neither is perfect, but if both agree, you have a pretty good shot at them being right. I also will go by them when they agree and make my own guess based on my own scheduling when they don't agree.

 

[Mickeynutty]

OP here. Here are their results from yesterday. All wrong, but especially AK. Not that great, IMO.

Sunday, Feb. 9:

At Magic Kingdom we predicted a crowd level of 5. The actual crowd level was a 6
At Epcot we predicted a crowd level of 3. The actual crowd level was a 4
At Disney's Hollywood Studios we predicted a crowd level of 2. The actual crowd level was a 4
At Disney's Animal Kingdom we predicted a crowd level of 3. The actual crowd level was an 8

 

[2Tiggies]

And you would also find probably an equal number who swear by them and have found their services useful for years. Sometimes they get it right and sometimes they're wrong. But their good (crowd calendar, Lines app, etc.) make it a worthy planning tool for me.

I am one such happy subscriber. I must have been very lucky as we go every year for 16-20 nights and I've been using them since 2008 and never been let down. There have been a few times when the crowd levels have been a bit out, but nothing near the level that it impacted negatively on our day.

I totally agree with Missyrose. There is so much else in there that makes it worth the subscription. Honestly, the actual crowd level/best park is least in order of importance of the list of benefits I get from it. And, it's less than 10 bucks for a whole year. No brainer for me, but we all plan differently so there is never going to be one thing that works for everyone.

 

[hydrotony]

Touring Plans is now amassing photos of the view from every room at every resort at WDW. Besides all the planning tools, touring plans, Lines app etc. that they have, don't you think "splurging" $10 on a resource with all that info is worth it on a vacation you have already committed $1000s on?

 

[Mickeynutty]

I am explicitly addressing their Crowd predictions. When you use them and they are wrong, that is my concern. Believe it or not, the $10 is not my concern.

 

[onelugnut]

I am not judging the touring plans, because have used them in the past and have had great success but something has definitely gone awry.
I was there for the first week in Feb and had terrible results.
i was looking forward to a lowest crowd ever experience and instead had the highest crowds i ever experienced. I left parks twice due to crowds and long lines. (I have only done that once before)
the high crowds combined with the other thing (need i mention it by name)
made for a less than great week