Touringplans.com Crowd Calendar

[Autin]

I have been planning our second trip to WDW for several months and have been anxiously waiting for today because it is 30 days out and the touringplans.com crowd calendar will show crowd levels at MK and which parks to visit/avoid.

By the way, I did not subscribe because I feel that purchasing the Unofficial Guide should provide me with more than just a discount . . . but that is a rant for another day.

Obviously, our first day is June 5th and my common sense tells me that due to Star Wars Weekend, DS would not be the best park to visit. Touringplans.com, however, has this as the best park to visit. My common sense has failed me again on the park to avoid. June 5th is also Gay Days at MK. Is it a poor assumption that MK would be pretty crowded that day? Touringplans.com, however, does not list MK as a park to avoid.

They have rattled my faith in my own good judgement. Or maybe they have rattle my faith in their good judgement.

I would like to know if anyone has followed these park suggestions from touringplans and felt like they got burned. My only other trip to WDW was in mid-December, so I know I won't be completely ready for early-June crowds. Any advice?

 

[Belle & Ariel]

We will be there then and I see they have crowd levels at an 8 for most days. I do not think this has been that high in previous years at that time.

Touring Plans has gotten a lot of criticism lately for underestimating crowd levels and they are probably overstating levels--you are happy if you expect an 8 and get a 4 day. If they call for a 6 and you get an 8, you are not happy and they probably lose potential subscribers.

It is possible many will go this week to see the last showings of Spectromagic/Wishes and the introduction of MSEP and the new fireworks. You also have Star Wars and gay days as you mentioned adding to the crowds. There are probably many who avoid this week because of the expected crowds these events will bring in.

Many schools are still in session and others will be making up snow days. A lot of families hold of a week when planning to allow for days added to the calendar.

I am not expecting 8 crowd levels, but will adjust and spend more time at the pool if the parks are crazy.
I would follow your instincts over touringplans. I think they have a good product for first timers, but not much to offer an experienced traveler.

 

[GraceLuvsWDW]

I think touringplans has a reasonable subscription rate. I just had to say that I don't think it's unreasonable.

Secondly I was at WDW last year June 2-June 6th and it WAS crowded. The crowd calendar for those dates in 2009 was 8,8,9,8,8. Perhaps not all the parks but the Gay Day parks were very crowded. This year is the 20th Anniversary of Gay Days and they are expecting higher than normal attendance I think (this balances the extended school year numbers). Just a guess on my part.

Anyway, in the past year I have not seen the crowd calendar severely off-and they keep stats on that on their site. There was one week this year-March 15th through 19th where the crowds caught everyone by surprise! That said, I do think touring plans has a decent formula on predicting cowds. I don't think they are purposely jacking up their numbers to avoid being wrong.

Anyway, I wanted to say that there are probably good reasons for the preferred picks. I wouldn't change my whole plan based on the info you've just learned nor would I fret about it. You can have more fun on an 8 day than a 5 day. And Gay Days is super fun as well as Star Wars Weekend.

OP, do you have park hoppers? If so just hop to another park if crowds are higher than expected. I am expecting fairly high crowd levels (going May 29-June 4) but I know it will be a great time!

 

[tallen429]

FYI, if my memory serves, you don't have to buy a subscription to access the crowd calendar if you have purchased the book. The website asks you for certain words that appear on certain pages in the current edition and when you answer correctly, you can view the ccrowd numbers.

 

[eelkmj01]

FYI, if my memory serves, you don't have to buy a subscription to access the crowd calendar if you have purchased the book. The website asks you for certain words that appear on certain pages in the current edition and when you answer correctly, you can view the ccrowd numbers.

Actually this is the 1st year you had to pay for the online subscription as well as the book. As the OP stated, you only got a discount.

 

[joecavalier]

I had my itinerary set for weeks, until I bought a subscription to touringplans.... now I am rearranging EVERY day. UGH.

To answer your question about DHS on Stars Wars weekend... I originally had DHS scheduled for Friday May 21st and Saturday May 22nd... but TP says to avoid DHS the entire weekend, thus my rearranging. This is the official kick-off of the star wars weekend so maybe that's why. I'm not a fan so I could care less about it.

 

[sunshine girl]

For Saturday June 5 ... if you look at the crowd calendar thru the summer, MK and DS are almost always a "Best Park" on every crowded (crowd level 8 and up) Saturday.

But on Sat June 5, MK is not a best park. It's not listed as a park to totally avoid, but it's not in it's usual position as "best park" either. That to me says that they are taking Gay Days into consideration for this day.

So, on June 5, DS is still listed as best park, per usual, even though star wars weekends is going on. Lets analyze a bit: On June 5, it's Gay Days in the MK, its EMH in AK, and EP was best park on the day before. That leaves... DS (which remember is usually a "best park" on crowd level 8 Saturdays such as these, anyway!) as a logical choice. I personally trust their analytics on this one, and assume the Star Wars weekend won't affect crowds as much as the other factors involved. And there's also the Fantasmic schedule to consider.

Keep in mind, touringplans uses a decade of historical data plus real-time updates to present statistically best choices. BUT their results are not written in stone, especially in a crazy year like this one in which new, untested discounts are everywhere. They are constantly learning and updating. Again, I trust their data and predictions far more than I trust myself to judge!

Have a fantastic trip!!

Side note: I bought a subscription to touringplans.com AND the book. The guys who do this are awesome, smart and dedicated statisticians and provide such a great service, I feel proud and more than happy to support them. It can't be cheap to collect/present this much data and information. I hope they keep doing this forever! No, I don't know them personally, haha (though I do listen to the podcast that Len Testa is on). I just really feel they earned the money I spent on their products!!

And finally, random notes straight from Touringplans.com:

Touringplans.com states that "according to our data, the attractions you visit and the time of day at which you visit them will have the greatest influence on how long you wait. On the other hand, the day of week and the weather will play only a small role."

Touringplans also says that "a good touring plan is 5 times more beneficial in saving you time than picking the right day to visit any particular park."

Another factor in their recommendations is that "every park is recommended at least once in every 7 day period on the calendar. This is the restriction that causes us to recommend parks that normally we wouldn't."

 

[Autin]

For Saturday June 5 ... if you look at the crowd calendar thru the summer, MK and DS are almost always a "Best Park" on every crowded (crowd level 8 and up) Saturday.

But on Sat June 5, MK is not a best park. It's not listed as a park to totally avoid, but it's not in it's usual position as "best park" either. That to me says that they are taking Gay Days into consideration for this day.

So, on June 5, DS is still listed as best park, per usual, even though star wars weekends is going on. Lets analyze a bit: On June 5, it's Gay Days in the MK, its EMH in AK, and EP was best park on the day before. That leaves... DS (which remember is usually a "best park" on crowd level 8 Saturdays such as these, anyway!) as a logical choice. I personally trust their analytics on this one, and assume the Star Wars weekend won't affect crowds as much as the other factors involved.

Keep in mind, touringplans uses a decade of historical data plus real-time updates to present statistically best choices. BUT their results are not written in stone, especially in a crazy year like this one in which new, untested discounts are everywhere. They are constantly learning and updating. Again, I trust their data and predictions far more than I trust myself to judge!

Have a fantastic trip!!

Side note: I bought a subscription to touringplans.com AND the book. The guys who do this are awesome, smart and dedicated statisticians and provide such a great service, I feel proud and more than happy to support them. It can't be cheap to collect/present this much data and information. I hope they keep doing this forever! No, I don't know them personally, haha (though I do listen to the podcast that Len Testa is on). I just really feel they earned the money I spent on their products!!

And finally, random notes straight from Touringplans.com:

Touringplans.com states that "according to our data, the attractions you visit and the time of day at which you visit them will have the greatest influence on how long you wait. On the other hand, the day of week and the weather will play only a small role."

Touringplans also says that "a good touring plan is 5 times more beneficial in saving you time than picking the right day to visit any particular park."

Another factor in their recommendations is that "every park is recommended at least once in every 7 day period on the calendar. This is the restriction that causes us to recommend parks that normally we wouldn't."

You make an excellent cheerleader for Touringplans. WOW, what was I thinking by questioning their logic? Especially since I was too "cheap" to both buy the book AND subscribe to the site. Between this being a crazy year and the random notes that put a strong emphasis on a good touring plan, however, I'm beginning to think that the whole "Best Parks/Parks to Avoid" is not all that important. Which come to think of it, makes me glad that I didn't pay extra for it.

Maybe I'm being too sarcastic. I really think the book is wonderful and valuable. Since no one has replied that they've been burned by the crowd calendar, perhaps it's pretty good as well.

 

[GraceLuvsWDW]

For Saturday June 5 ... if you look at the crowd calendar thru the summer, MK and DS are almost always a "Best Park" on every crowded (crowd level 8 and up) Saturday.

But on Sat June 5, MK is not a best park. It's not listed as a park to totally avoid, but it's not in it's usual position as "best park" either. That to me says that they are taking Gay Days into consideration for this day.

So, on June 5, DS is still listed as best park, per usual, even though star wars weekends is going on. Lets analyze a bit: On June 5, it's Gay Days in the MK, its EMH in AK, and EP was best park on the day before. That leaves... DS (which remember is usually a "best park" on crowd level 8 Saturdays such as these, anyway!) as a logical choice. I personally trust their analytics on this one, and assume the Star Wars weekend won't affect crowds as much as the other factors involved.

Keep in mind, touringplans uses a decade of historical data plus real-time updates to present statistically best choices. BUT their results are not written in stone, especially in a crazy year like this one in which new, untested discounts are everywhere. They are constantly learning and updating. Again, I trust their data and predictions far more than I trust myself to judge!

Have a fantastic trip!!

Sunshine Girl, I like your thinking, your post makes perfect sense. Very analytical approach.

 

[PIRATEGIRL007]

We also have always had good look with TP crowd calendar. We have tested thier best park/avoid park advice for ourselves and within minutes could tell why each park was labeled what it was. There is always a noticable difference in crowd level on the avoid day vs the best day. We stick to thier advice but always have hoppers and if we feel X park is too busy or we want to ride X ride in another park we will just hop there.

FWIW the reason DHS may be a best park during SWW is they try to recommend all the parks as best at least once in a rotation (i think 7 days) so each average vacationer will have a recommendation to visit each park over thier week long trip. That could be why its the best park that day.

 

[2Tiggies]

Actually this is the 1st year you had to pay for the online subscription as well as the book. As the OP stated, you only got a discount.

Yes but the discount is 50% - making the year's subscription under $5! I think it's a great deal and would pay full price for it if it came to that. I am a believer!

 

[thorphin]

I don't doubt that touringplans does their homework and has good models. That being said, I think it's too overly simplistic to rearrange a whole trip around. We used to plan based solely on which day of the week was best for which park. That's really pretty silly, and touringplans is better, but still a gross simplification. There are so many factors that affect how much you can get done that touringplans can't even capture in their ratings... what time you enter the park, the order in which you go to attractions, how and when you use fastpasses, and when and where you eat are just some examples.

I spent just about the whole 30 days prior to last trip obsessing about our schedule of just what park to be in at each point in each day... trying to manage parades/fireworks I wanted to see, EMHs I wanted to go to, what ADRs I could get, wanting to start and end in MK, AND touringplans and I literally worried myself very sick, and that affected the whole trip. In the end, I really couldn't negotiate everything and we ended up going to several of the Parks to Avoid parks. The CC predicted 8s and one 9 for our trip, and we didn't really have any problems, rarely waiting more than 20-30 minutes for any attraction.

Touringplans can be a helpful guide, but I don't feel it should dictate your whole trip at the expense of other priorities or criteria you might have. The lesson I learned is that you can have a great time if you approach the parks intelligently, regardless of whether or not you completely ignore the crowd calendar. Needless to say, this time, I'm not stressing out about what it says nearly as much.

 

[sunshine girl]

You make an excellent cheerleader for Touringplans. WOW, what was I thinking by questioning their logic? Especially since I was too "cheap" to both buy the book AND subscribe to the site. Between this being a crazy year and the random notes that put a strong emphasis on a good touring plan, however, I'm beginning to think that the whole "Best Parks/Parks to Avoid" is not all that important. Which come to think of it, makes me glad that I didn't pay extra for it.

Maybe I'm being too sarcastic. I really think the book is wonderful and valuable. Since no one has replied that they've been burned by the crowd calendar, perhaps it's pretty good as well.

Ha! I wasn't trying to be a cheerleader but I definitely sound like one, you're right! where is that little cheerleader thingy... there it is:

Sunshine Girl, I like your thinking, your post makes perfect sense. Very analytical approach.

Thanks! Yes, that's my engineering degree showing there in my post. Nerd alert.

I don't doubt that touringplans does their homework and has good models. That being said, I think it's too overly simplistic to rearrange a whole trip around. We used to plan based solely on which day of the week was best for which park. That's really pretty silly, and touringplans is better, but still a gross simplification. There are so many factors that affect how much you can get done that touringplans can't even capture in their ratings... what time you enter the park, the order in which you go to attractions, how and when you use fastpasses, and when and where you eat are just some examples.

I spent just about the whole 30 days prior to last trip obsessing about our schedule of just what park to be in at each point in each day... trying to manage parades/fireworks I wanted to see, EMHs I wanted to go to, what ADRs I could get, wanting to start and end in MK, AND touringplans and I literally worried myself very sick, and that affected the whole trip. In the end, I really couldn't negotiate everything and we ended up going to several of the Parks to Avoid parks. The CC predicted 8s and one 9 for our trip, and we didn't really have any problems, rarely waiting more than 20-30 minutes for any attraction.

Touringplans can be a helpful guide, but I don't feel it should dictate your whole trip at the expense of other priorities or criteria you might have. The lesson I learned is that you can have a great time if you approach the parks intelligently, regardless of whether or not you completely ignore the crowd calendar. Needless to say, this time, I'm not stressing out about what it says nearly as much.

Totally agree that the plans can't possibly take all factors into account, but they are a good guideline or starting place or thought provoker. But more importantly...

GOODNESS don't forget to have some fun! I really think you can't do or see it all. Use the tools at your disposal but for heaven's sake don't let them stress you out! I'm a proponent of making a plan, but then totally ditching the plan if it's stressing me out, in favor of a cold beverage and a trip to the pool. You know what they say about the best laid plans....

 

[sunshine girl]

You make an excellent cheerleader for Touringplans. WOW, what was I thinking by questioning their logic? Especially since I was too "cheap" to both buy the book AND subscribe to the site. Between this being a crazy year and the random notes that put a strong emphasis on a good touring plan, however, I'm beginning to think that the whole "Best Parks/Parks to Avoid" is not all that important. Which come to think of it, makes me glad that I didn't pay extra for it.

Maybe I'm being too sarcastic. I really think the book is wonderful and valuable. Since no one has replied that they've been burned by the crowd calendar, perhaps it's pretty good as well.

I forgot to mention in my last post that I have to agree with your logic here! The book is useful (and quite witty) and the online best-park crowd calendar is very handy, but if I had to choose one I'd take the book.

 

[laceemouse]

Yes but the discount is 50% - making the year's subscription under $5! I think it's a great deal and would pay full price for it if it came to that. I am a believer!

I was gonna say that, for $4 and something I can handle it. We are going in a couple of weeks and I think their predictions are dead on. I do have to ask, how do you KNOW when they are wrong about "best park"? Do people hop all over the world just to prove them wrong?

 

[gandbsmom]

I have been to WDW three times in recent years all at high traffic times - Thanksgiving, early August, and Christmas week. I have used the touringplans crowd calendars all three times and have had very successful trips - following their recommendations we were able to ride all big attractions multiple times without waiting more than twenty minutes for ANYTHING! (we also used fastpasses of course). We are going again at Christmas, and even having used the calendar successfully, I still find myself second guessing things (Dec. 19 a 4 - really? Seems hard to imagine), but in the end I will trust it because it has worked VERY well in the past. In regards to the money, I'd just like to say that I paid less for the book AND the website subscription than tourguidemike is asking for JUST his website (no offense tourguidemike fans, I've heard from others his advice is good, too), so the price doesn't seem outrageous to me.

 

[cjb71870]

I really need to start putting my knowledge to work if that's what is being charged!!!

 

[dizneedoll]

Regarding the price for Touringplans, it isn't just the crowd calendar you get access to. There are also the touring plans themselves. Yes, I know there are plans in the book but the ones that come with the subscription are narrowed down for individual preferences. They also have touring plans for both the Halloween and Christmas parties. Plus 4 bucks is a lot better then the $22 TGM charges.

That being said, I also think the crowd calendar is just a good starting point. If they do not recommend a park on certain day but that's the best day for the plan I've got, then I go anyways. I think getting there early is more key then picking the right park. The first time we ever went to WDW the only thing we used was Birnbaums Official guide and that's it. No other books, no internet sites, no DIS and that turned out to be the best of all our trips so far! I think the more I plan and plan and then overplan the less of a good time we have.

 

[GrtWtNorth]

Don't the touring plans always recommend a park at least once per week. So even if Star Wars weekends are filling DHS or Gay Days are packing MK, Touringplans.com will advise visitors that these are the best parks one day during the week. So while the days selected might not be ideal, they are likely the "least insane days" for those spending a week in WDW.

I've seen comments about how useful the Unofficial Guides are -- I agree, especially with respect to touring plans and dining reviews. However, no one else has mentioned how helpful they are for answering questions. I've emailed questions to the authors a few times over the years. Bob Sehlinger or Len Testa have always responded within a week or two. Kudos to them for that extra effort!

 

[lllGurulll]

I am the first to admit that TGM has some faults but I will still say it is worth every penny and easily better than UG! In my opinion of course.