Touring Plans - use actual trip date or crowd level 10 day for planning purposes

[blabadie]

Hi,

We are planning a WDW trip for 10/5-10/14. This will be our third trip using personalized touring plans through touringplans.com. In the past we have always found the times to be on the conservative side of accurate (we often were able to finish earlier than the plans indicated and could add extra rides here and there).

From reading on this site, it seems touring plans may not be as accurate as they once were (possibly due to Disney changes to how they staff rides). I'm especially concerned with this bc the website currently shows the parks mostly at crowd levels 5-7 despite how busy Columbus Day week is supposed to be.

Some people have mentioned setting your touring plan date to a calendar day with a 9 or 10 crowd level to more accurately reflect current reality. I'm curious to hear if others are planning to do this or if folks who have recently returned found their touring plan times to be accurate.

Thank you!

 

[EEva]

Hi,

We are planning a WDW trip for 10/5-10/14. This will be our third trip using personalized touring plans through touringplans.com. In the past we have always found the times to be on the conservative side of accurate (we often were able to finish earlier than the plans indicated and could add extra rides here and there).

From reading on this site, it seems touring plans may not be as accurate as they once were (possibly due to Disney changes to how they staff rides). I'm especially concerned with this bc the website currently shows the parks mostly at crowd levels 5-7 despite how busy Columbus Day week is supposed to be.

Some people have mentioned setting your touring plan date to a calendar day with a 9 or 10 crowd level to more accurately reflect current reality. I'm curious to hear if others are planning to do this or if folks who have recently returned found their touring plan times to be accurate.

Thank you!

I wish that touring plans had a feature where you could change the crowd level and then re-optimize. But I hadn't thought about changing the date. I guess as long as most factors were the same or at least similar. Mostly I'm thinking hours, emh, special events, etc.

 

[PrincessWithABlaster]

If you have found it to be accurate, I wouldn't change the date. There were big misses in crowd levels in Jan/Feb but it seems better recently. And they are updating CLs monthly these days.

The reason I wouldn't do it is because your park hours and show times may become inaccurate. I think it would be more work keeping up with those things yourself. I would set your walking speed to the slowest setting if you want a more conservative estimate of how fast you can accomplish rides. If you do change the date to a 10 day, I would just create a copy of your real plan and have both of them.

 

[chiisai]

If you have found it to be accurate, I wouldn't change the date. There were big misses in crowd levels in Jan/Feb but it seems better recently. And they are updating CLs monthly these days.

The reason I wouldn't do it is because your park hours and show times may become inaccurate. I think it would be more work keeping up with those things yourself. I would set your walking speed to the slowest setting if you want a more conservative estimate of how fast you can accomplish rides. If you do change the date to a 10 day, I would just create a copy of your real plan and have both of them.

saw your bold. Has touring plans said they’ve changed their plans to account for 10 lines even with smaller crowds? That would be awesome...

 

[slpeters]

saw your bold. Has touring plans said they’ve changed their plans to account for 10 lines even with smaller crowds? That would be awesome...

I would think this would be pretty much automatic, given the way the TP algorithms work. My understanding is that they were always based on wait times--they've never actually had access to how many people were in the park so they were never really estimating the size of the crowd, per se.

 

[PrincessWithABlaster]

I would think this would be pretty much automatic, given the way the TP algorithms work. My understanding is that they were always based on wait times--they've never actually had access to how many people were in the park so they were never really estimating the size of the crowd, per se.

Yes. I don't think they've been better lately because of the changes they've made per se, but probably that it's easier to predict that spring break will be busy. Maybe Jan and Feb were a fluke, maybe not. The changes they made to the algorithms should allow them to better react to unseasonable large crowds (I would think, from the brief description they gave of the changes).

OP also be sure to re Optimize or Evaluate (whichever you use) frequently to get updates based on CL changes.

 

[chiisai]

I would think this would be pretty much automatic, given the way the TP algorithms work. My understanding is that they were always based on wait times--they've never actually had access to how many people were in the park so they were never really estimating the size of the crowd, per se.

Gotcha. I guess I assumed the algorithms for ride line times were based on their determination of crowd levels for the day, and that they would need to be adjusted since crowd levels no longer influenced ride line times due to WDW new staffing/ride operations process. Appreciated the clarification.

 

[blabadie]

You all make good points. I think I will use the actual dates but be careful to keep refreshing my plans for updated wait times as the trip draw near.

I do hope touring plans is accurate about crowd levels for Columbus Day week. It currently shows MK as a 4 on Tuesday, 10/9. Granted that's a MNSSHP day, but I was surprised to see the Columbus Day crowds drop off so quickly. I've never been during that week though, so perhaps that's normal? I certainly hope so!

 

[Roxyfire]

You all make good points. I think I will use the actual dates but be careful to keep refreshing my plans for updated wait times as the trip draw near.

I do hope touring plans is accurate about crowd levels for Columbus Day week. It currently shows MK as a 4 on Tuesday, 10/9. Granted that's a MNSSHP day, but I was surprised to see the Columbus Day crowds drop off so quickly. I've never been during that week though, so perhaps that's normal? I certainly hope so!

MK is significantly less busy on a party day. There will be people coming in for their fall break but also lots leaving on Monday as well. I don't follow the historical trends of the Columbus Day week, but the week before obviously things get much busier the closer you get to the holiday.

 

[soniam]

We used it for our mid-March trip and didn't have any issues with it be optimistic. That was a crowded time mostly. It was definitely pessimistic for Flight of Passage at park opening, but TP never handles park opening wait times the way I would like. It really didn't seem to be off compared to the 8 WDW trips we have taken.

 

[blabadie]

We used it for our mid-March trip and didn't have any issues with it be optimistic. That was a crowded time mostly. It was definitely pessimistic for Flight of Passage at park opening, but TP never handles park opening wait times the way I would like. It really didn't seem to be off compared to the 8 WDW trips we have taken.

I'm so glad to hear this!

So for rope drop rides do you think it is regularly pessimistic or just FOP? It seems that way when I compare my touring plans to my memory of past trips. (We usually get to the parks 45-60 minutes before opening and have always walked on our first attraction (choosing popular, but not 7DMT or FOP level attractions for our first ride). Did the parks seem to open before scheduled opening time when you were there?

 

[PrincessWithABlaster]

It was definitely pessimistic for Flight of Passage at park opening, but TP never handles park opening wait times the way I would like. It

This. We're planning to RD Navi and it shows a 37 min wait at 9. It doesn't acknowledge the fact that AK has been opening and running rides half an hour before official opening. I guess maybe that's smart because Disney could end that practice tomorrow, but still.

 

[Clare Voince]

Yes. I don't think they've been better lately because of the changes they've made per se, but probably that it's easier to predict that spring break will be busy. Maybe Jan and Feb were a fluke, maybe not.

This year is a fluke because of the people whose trips were postponed due to the hurricane.

 

[dlavender]

You all make good points. I think I will use the actual dates but be careful to keep refreshing my plans for updated wait times as the trip draw near.

I do hope touring plans is accurate about crowd levels for Columbus Day week. It currently shows MK as a 4 on Tuesday, 10/9. Granted that's a MNSSHP day, but I was surprised to see the Columbus Day crowds drop off so quickly. I've never been during that week though, so perhaps that's normal? I certainly hope so!

That seems pretty accurate.

I know the actual weekend will be 9-10's based off personal experience. But after that weekend it does drop off some.

 

[MomDoc_99]

What I have been doing for my very preliminary touring plans is doing them for the actual date but then also changing the date to a level 10 crowd and making note of what adjustments I would need to make if I ran into longer wait times than expected.

 

[Alpha1]

Hi,

We are planning a WDW trip for 10/5-10/14. This will be our third trip using personalized touring plans through touringplans.com. In the past we have always found the times to be on the conservative side of accurate (we often were able to finish earlier than the plans indicated and could add extra rides here and there).

From reading on this site, it seems touring plans may not be as accurate as they once were (possibly due to Disney changes to how they staff rides). I'm especially concerned with this bc the website currently shows the parks mostly at crowd levels 5-7 despite how busy Columbus Day week is supposed to be.

Some people have mentioned setting your touring plan date to a calendar day with a 9 or 10 crowd level to more accurately reflect current reality. I'm curious to hear if others are planning to do this or if folks who have recently returned found their touring plan times to be accurate.

Thank you!

TP's crowd level estimate has definitely been off on our last 3 trips and in one case by a large margin. Instead of moving my date to a higher crowd level, I just set the walking speed to very relaxed when in reality we probable move at fast to above average pace. If crowd levels are accurate then you have more time than expected, if they are off, as they have been, then you end up perfect.

 

[GillianP1301]

What I do with touring plans is I set my walking pace at the slowest, even though we are more moderate in our speed. That builds in more time than we need in our plan and could also help to compensate for setting a plan on a 5 - 7 day that you are anticipating may be a bit higher.

 

[blabadie]

TP's crowd level estimate has definitely been off on our last 3 trips and in one case by a large margin. Instead of moving my date to a higher crowd level, I just set the walking speed to very relaxed when in reality we probable move at fast to above average pace. If crowd levels are accurate then you have more time than expected, if they are off, as they have been, then you end up perfect.

Glad to hear that slowing the walking speed does a fairly good job "adjusting" the crowd level prediction vs. reality issue. I'll have to make that change in my touring plans.

 

[jeffg4]

I'm so glad to hear this!

So for rope drop rides do you think it is regularly pessimistic or just FOP? It seems that way when I compare my touring plans to my memory of past trips. (We usually get to the parks 45-60 minutes before opening and have always walked on our first attraction (choosing popular, but not 7DMT or FOP level attractions for our first ride). Did the parks seem to open before scheduled opening time when you were there?

TP is regularly pessimistic for rope drop rides. I think it assumes you are NOT going to be at the front of the pack at park opening and you are making your way to your first attraction at average or slow speed. It also does not account for the possibility that the attraction may open prior to the "official" park opening. What I'll typically do is, assuming I know I'll be at the front of the rope drop pack, schedule a 15-min break at park opening and start my TP from there.

 

[soniam]

I'm so glad to hear this!

So for rope drop rides do you think it is regularly pessimistic or just FOP? It seems that way when I compare my touring plans to my memory of past trips. (We usually get to the parks 45-60 minutes before opening and have always walked on our first attraction (choosing popular, but not 7DMT or FOP level attractions for our first ride). Did the parks seem to open before scheduled opening time when you were there?

It’s always pessimistic at RD, but it is especially bad for FOP now. AK is opening a bit early. MK seemed early too.