Touring Plans: How accurate are Crowd Predictions??

[jessiegirl1982]

So one week out from our trip, and according to Touring Plans, crowd predictions are between a 1-4 out of 10 for the entire time we are there (varies by park per day). How accurate are these predictions? I know Epcot will be off as long he predictions don't account for F&W beginning earlier this year. It lists FOP with a average wait of any 27 minutes midday!! I don't see that happening at all!!

 

[Doug S]

Avatar predictions are very much predictions because they haven't been open during a September yet. Nobody really knows what to expect. As for their crowd calendar predictions, they're usually within 2 points or less. Their crowd ratings are based off wait times, not actually how crowded the paths are, hence why they don't account for Food & Wine. Usually F&W bound people aren't going to be in the mood for any rides after eating & drinking.

 

[TulipMom]

We've only taken 1 trip where we used Touring Plans (in Sept 2015) and I found Touring Plans to be quite accurate. It was wonderful for planning our trip. I'm using it heavily again for our upcoming October trip. I have noticed (and actually posted about) how off the Pandora/AK wait times were. They commented and said they'd take a look at it, but it was still way off as of last week. It suggested that I go straight to EE after rope drop, instead of Na'Vi. That advice just doesn't make any sense, as the wait times for Na'Vi are 3x that of EE after 10am. As much as I appreciate the site, they need to find a fix for AK, because they could really put a big wrench in someone's day if someone follows it as it is right now.

 

[DisTXMom]

I subscribe to touring plans and use their customized touring plans. Even in higher crowds, having a plan of attack- particularly in the morning- is a huge time saver. As far as their crowd predictions, I take it with a grain of salt. Generally, they are decent, sometimes they miss.

 

[kydisneyfans]

Never had a crowd calendar incorrect, until our trip last year. It was OK Sat-Tues, but Wed-Fri was nowhere close.

 

[drinkme]

I used TP for our Easter trip this year. They were spot on with crowd predictions!

 

[cigar95]

Weather can throw them off, no way to predict that - if it rains strongly Tuesday & Wednesday, chances are Thursday will be more crowded than predicted.

But otherwise, they use something like 250 different inputs into a pretty heavy-duty model. The model is far from perfect, but anyone who says they're just guessing hasn't paid attention. (I actually read Len's masters thesis a few ears ago on creating touring plans, so I've seen the sort of thinking that goes into it. Plus, they're constantly monitoring and looking to see what causes the predictions to be off.)

(And if anyone's wondering, I know that touring plans and crowd predictions aren't the same thing.)

 

[Clare Voince]

On my last trip, they were so-so. Most days were close, but one of my days the MK was predicted to be a level 5, and it was jammed. When I got home, and they posted the 'how did we do?' post, and that day the MK had actually been a 9.

 

[jessiegirl1982]

Thanks everyone for the input! I definitely agree they need to fine tune the Pandora predictions. I already have my plans in place (on my own mainly since I am an obsessive Diser). Subscribed to TP basically for the free fax room request (want a renovated room at POP bad!). I am also pregnant and can't ride FOP anyway, but I did score FP's for my bro and hubby to ride while I am on Navi with our 3 year old!

 

[Klayfish]

Not a chance of accuracy beyond making very broad generalizations that anyone could make. So many variables and subjective things that at best it's as accurate as

 

[Surgie2]

I have used Touring Plans for 4 trips and found it to be very accurate in prediction of crowd levels. The trips were all in different months, but none were summer months so I can't speak to that.

 

[Bob Dolewhip]

For our trip last year the crowd levels predicted by Touring Plans were spot on.

 

[Dan Murphy]

Have used TP many times before, as well as most recent trip of a week or so ago. Works great!! A big help.

 

[jessiegirl1982]

I am not expecting 1 or 2 out of 10 crowds (even that's what they are predicting), but less than average would be great! I don't think WDW has super low crowds anymore (at least I never really experience them as a DL AP).

 

[cigar95]

I am not expecting 1 or 2 out of 10 crowds (even that's what they are predicting), but less than average would be great! I don't think WDW has super low crowds anymore (at least I never really experience them as a DL AP).

It's really helpful with TouringPlans to understand what they mean by "1" or "2". Those numbers get calibrated as time goes on so that 1 represents "shortest waits you'll see", rather than "almost no one here". So days of 1 and 2 still exist, as long as you don't misinterpret what those numbers mean.
There's a really helpful discussion, including numbers for expected waits at attractions for each crowd level, here:
https://touringplans.com/walt-disney-world/crowd-levels

 

[jessiegirl1982]

It's really helpful with TouringPlans to understand what they mean by "1" or "2". Those numbers get calibrated as time goes on so that 1 represents "shortest waits you'll see", rather than "almost no one here". So days of 1 and 2 still exist, as long as you don't misinterpret what those numbers mean.
There's a really helpful discussion, including numbers for expected waits at attractions for each crowd level, here:
https://touringplans.com/walt-disney-world/crowd-levels

That is quite helpful... but I also don't believe this will be accurate (awesome if I am wrong, though!).

 

[cigar95]

That is quite helpful... but I also don't believe this will be accurate (awesome if I am wrong, though!).

I tend to agree with you on that one.
In this case, they're running the model with no previous history for September, and the model probably doesn't account for how these new attractions have just taken off even more than the really popular attractions like Toy Story and Mine Train. So I would plan on waits a bit shorter than what we're seeing in summer, but not the hyper-optimistic numbers they're showing. (The non-Pandora attractions look about right to me - maybe a little on the optimistic side for the safari.)
If the predictions are still unrealistically short for *next* September, then there's a problem. Seeing how other new, well-received attractions in recent years have held their popularity, I suspect that even the opening of Star Wars isn't going to cause us to see 30-minute waits at noon for Flight in the next few years - just in time for the Avatar sequels to begin and raise interest all over again.

 

[Klayfish]

That is quite helpful... but I also don't believe this will be accurate (awesome if I am wrong, though!).
View attachment 265749

FoP a 30 minute wait pretty much all day and safari less than 15 all day? Oh man, how I would love that to be right, but my instinct says...

 

[jessiegirl1982]

I tend to agree with you on that one.
In this case, they're running the model with no previous history for September, and the model probably doesn't account for how these new attractions have just taken off even more than the really popular attractions like Toy Story and Mine Train. So I would plan on waits a bit shorter than what we're seeing in summer, but not the hyper-optimistic numbers they're showing. (The non-Pandora attractions look about right to me - maybe a little on the optimistic side for the safari.)
If the predictions are still unrealistically short for *next* September, then there's a problem. Seeing how other new, well-received attractions in recent years have held their popularity, I suspect that even the opening of Star Wars isn't going to cause us to see 30-minute waits at noon for Flight in the next few years - just in time for the Avatar sequels to begin and raise interest all over again.

..and this is the first level 1 day since Pandora opened (haven't seen it go below a 4!). I can't even go on FOP, anyway! Next trip!!

 

[ohiotodds12]

I am not expecting 1 or 2 out of 10 crowds (even that's what they are predicting), but less than average would be great! I don't think WDW has super low crowds anymore (at least I never really experience them as a DL AP).

When we were there last September the first week and the year before, they were pretty on track with the 1's and 2's. We were at Epcot and no one within 50 feet of us at times.