Touring Plans Finally Figures It Out

[3TinksAndAnEeyore]

Just got this email from Touring Plans this morning. Looks like they finally woke up and smelled the coffee. They should really hire Dis Board members! We could have set them straight weeks ago!

"Disneyland Crowd Tracker Updates!

• November 22, 2015: Resort-wide Crowd Level updated from 7 to 9.
• November 22, 2015: Disneyland Crowd Level updated from 6 to 10.
• November 22, 2015: Disney California Adventure Crowd Level updated from 7 to 9.
• November 23, 2015: Resort-wide Crowd Level updated from 8 to 9.
• November 23, 2015: Disneyland Crowd Level updated from 7 to 10.
• November 23, 2015: Disney California Adventure Crowd Level updated from 8 to 9.
• November 24, 2015: Disneyland Crowd Level updated from 7 to 10.
• November 24, 2015: Disney California Adventure Crowd Level updated from 8 to 9.
• November 24, 2015: Resort-wide Crowd Level updated from 8 to 9.
• November 25, 2015: Resort-wide Crowd Level updated from 7 to 9.
• November 25, 2015: Disneyland Crowd Level updated from 6 to 10.
• November 25, 2015: Disney California Adventure Crowd Level updated from 7 to 9."

Well, duh!

 

[Girimama33]

Why anyone still pays for and/or pays attention to TP crowd calendars...I will never know.

 

[3TinksAndAnEeyore]

Why anyone still pays for and/or pays attention to TP crowd calendars...I will never know.

I know, right? What a waste! Think I can ask for my money back? <grin>

I subscribed more for playing around with the order we should do rides and get fastpasses in the morning hours. I found it helpful (and fun) for our WDW trip last year. But the scenarios I was putting together a few weeks ago were completely unrealistic. They had mid-morning wait times for Space Moyntain at 20 minutes. Mind you, this was many weeks after the Seasons of the Force and Hyperspace Mountain openings were announced.

 

[Girimama33]

I agree. I bought a subscription a while back to play around with their touring plans. Since you couldn't effectively create a park hopping strategy, I never made one to follow. Plus back in 2012, it had me try and get an RSR FP later on in the day when I put that I was there at park opening, and the FPs didn't last more than 90 minutes then.
Besides, as someone who grew up within a few miles from DLR and had several day trips (like yourself), it would be difficult to have a solid step by step plan for the day when I am used to being so spontaneous there.

 

[3TinksAndAnEeyore]

Yeah, we will just be doing our own touring plan. Maybe we could have shaved a couple minutes off a line somewhere in their plans, but only at the expense of not getting a Fastpass to Hyperspace Mtn, RSR, and not efficiently park hopping.

 

[KITKAT0229]

Ya I got an email this morning too with updated crowd predictions. I like to play around with creating a plan for each day and then I update it as we go. Hopefully it's actually helpful for our next trip since it's going to be way more crowded than I thought.

 

[Davin_Felth]

When we scheduled our trip for next week, back in March we were looking forward to a less crowded trip than our last trip. Touring plans is showing a 9 all week for DL.

 

[celiacla]

I still think that they have fundamental bugs with their prediction program. The historical data that they have shows 22nd:8 23rd:8 24th: 10 25th: 10. I believe the historical data is accurate but you have to click through to the actual day to see what they predicted vs saw. They record wait times every 15 minutes and show charts of the information. Even if they only use historical data and don't try to fold in new information, such as the opening of the force and 60th they should have been predicting much higher numbers for these dates from the beginning.



Here is the crowd chart that I posted in another thread that is based on the historical isitpacked data. I did a similar one for touring plans, but I don't think I am allowed to post that one. I think it is a better guide to the future crowds. I purchase touring plans to look at the historical information, because I can make my own predictions based on what was seen last year.

 

[Winnowill]

Meh. I spent $5 on my subscription for a year because I have the Unofficial Guide - it's not like it's expensive. I got it more to create a workable touring plan for myself than because of the crowd predictor.

 

[alvernon90]

I find the most irritating thing about TP is not how inaccurate they are, but the attitude from the proprietors that anyone who is not using their site and following their plans is an idiot.

 

[sheetz]

I don't see where they got their original forecasts from. When was the last time Thanksgiving week crowds were 6-7? There's a major flaw in their algorithm.

 

[ArchOwl]

Oh geez, I guess better late than never? Which is how they normally deal with their entirely ridiculous crowd forecast numbers. They never adjust for special celebrations, actual holidays, or passholder blockouts.

Did they revise anything for Nov 16, the opening for SOTF?

 

[Symon]

I also got the email from touringplans this morning saying some of our days have changed. I am not surprised by most of the changes, but I am surprised that Saturday, Jan 30th went from a 4 to a 9 in DCA! Anyone have any idea why this might be the case?

 

[BritBrit]

I was prepared for this but it is still unpleasant to realize the 4 - 5 level days you picked are now 7 - 9! Ugh! I guess it's all about managing expectations.

 

[WestMom2two]

When we scheduled our trip for next week, back in March we were looking forward to a less crowded trip than our last trip. Touring plans is showing a 9 all week for DL.

I booked a trip for October 2016 for the 11th-14th in park, which historically is a week of 6 to 7's and I got an email yesterday that it changed to all 9's! I mean is there an event they know of that we don't? Just doesnt make sense to me.

 

[KITKAT0229]

I'm not sure about Oct 2016 but I've been reading in the Holiday Super-thread that the Diamond Celebration & Season of the Force is drawing more crowds this year. I can sure tell it by looking at hotel bookings. I'm glad we decided to go for 4 full days. We're normally night owls but this time I've informed DH that we'll be going to the parks early at rope drop. I have never actually been to a Disney park when it's predicted to be this crowded but as long as it's not blazing hot I can deal with it. I'm going to plan to get the FW, Christmas Parade & PTN done on our first day which is predicted to be much less busy. Then we can utilize those times on the busy days to ride rides. Good luck everyone!

 

[celiacla]

I booked a trip for October 2016 for the 11th-14th in park, which historically is a week of 6 to 7's and I got an email yesterday that it changed to all 9's! I mean is there an event they know of that we don't? Just doesnt make sense to me.

I wouldn't stress. I'm guessing they are basing that on what they saw this year for those dates. They were high this year due to the UEA (Utah break) conference.. Next year UEA Convention will be held October 20-21, 2016 so it won't impact that week. If were to make my own prediction I would say the crowds should be 6/7 like you are expecting.