Too many people using crowd predictors?

[Clare Voince]

I stayed at the Dolphin last month. I booked my flight separately through AAA, and while I was there, a travel agent was talking on the phone, and she said that AAA includes touring plans for free when you book with them. I immediately thought, 'Oh no!' but then I thought, that shouldn't make a big difference, and used touring plans and easywdw to decide my parks days as usual. After having been there, I think my first thought was right. The day that was recommended for MK was packed. I changed it up a few days later and visited MK on an EMH night that was not recommended, and it was so much better, although I didn't go to the park until 7pm. It's not much evidence to draw a conclusion from, but I'm thinking that these sites are too much in use now to be effective. Do you think my experience was an aberration or do you think that too many people have been using these sites, rendering their advice useless?

 

[Shanti]

Used touring plans and easywdw to decide my parks days as usual...The day that was recommended for MK was packed. I changed it up a few days later and visited MK on an EMH night that was not recommended, and it was so much better, although I didn't go to the park until 7pm. It's not much evidence to draw a conclusion from, but I'm thinking that these sites are too much in use now to be effective. Do you think my experience was an aberration or do you think that too many people have been using these sites, rendering their advice useless?

I think their advice is useless, after having been burned by them, as well. There are many possible reasons why, but the one you stated is definitely among the possibilities. "Avoid the EMH park" is definitely not a secret anymore- I've heard coworkers who aren't even Disney obsessives parrot it.

 

[Mikie]

I always had good success using crowd calendars, although since you can't be in two places at once, I have no way of knowing whether all the other parks were also fine on my trips. I definitely used to believe that the number of uber-planners knowing about and following crowd calendars was too small a % to influence results. However, the growth of internet usage, live feeds, and blogs has been exponential so I could believe that the calendars may be beginning to swing attendance. Soon in addition to "avoid EMH days", we will be starting to say "avoid the recommended park" or we'll need a published recommendation and a secret underground insider's recommendation!

 

[Parker Clan]

Are they helpful? In our five years going, I've never once looked at a crowd calendar. I guess it depends on the time of year you are going but I'm probably one of the few who have never and will never use them!

 

[Nancyg56]

I think that they are useful, but they should not be considered the gold standard of planning.

I use them for my initial park days plan, but I think you need to use common sense, when doing so. Know that a lot of others are relying on planners, a lot of people are going to the parks, a lot of people do not have a plan, and Disney often uses a lot of methods to increase attendance on "slow" times, so best park may simply mean the best of the worst.

There really are no slow times any more, so plan on the parks being busy.

 

[rwdavis2]

If I remember correctly both Touring Plans and easywdw both say that getting to a park at rope drop and using a touring plan always outweigh "best park".

 

[ArwenMarie]

I do think more and more people are using them now because of how widely available they are on the internet. Google "WDW planning" and you'll hit some.

 

[Anal Annie]

Interesting theory and I do use easywdw to plan to a certain degree but I don't hold it up as gold. We still usually take advantage of EMH's which would go against their advice - but we go at rope drop & stay for a little while then we get out and THEN we go to one of the recommended parks. I think the ability to park hop helps tremendously so you can always switch parks if need be but I only wish we could still have the same spontaneity that we used to have by not having to pre-book FP+. All of this pre-planning makes it harder to switch gears on the spur of the moment because you know if you switch parks at the last minute you might be giving up FP's (we almost always book our FP's for our 2nd park of the day).

 

[Jadyreen1282]

Crowd calendars do a real good job of stressing out already stressed out people. Just go when you want and deal with it or go when it's slow and also deal with it.

Depending on third party information can backfire.

 

[Disneymom1126]

If anyone thinks that the you're going to arrive at the "most recommended" park and find no crowd, I think the answer would be to adjust your expectations. Not only do the blogs acknowledge that a "7" in 2016 does not = a "7" from 2014, they also acknowledge that FP+ has increased wait times across all attractions for stand by...we've been during some of the busiest times of year and always use EasyWDW to chose which park we will go to for the day...rope drop and a smart touring plan are the key. Also - read the actual blog, don't just look at the crowd calendars. The blog entries give more tips and actually test out touring plans to see what is working and when. For example Josh at easywdw just tested rope dropping the Inside Out characters and Baymax at Epcot because it's a new m&g...if you want no/low crowds at WDW you should check out the $150 after hours event...or go during Jan/Feb but not near the holidays in those months....

 

[mlink461]

Crowd calendars do a real good job of stressing out already stressed out people. Just go when you want and deal with it or go when it's slow and also deal with it.

Depending on third party information can backfire.

I agree. I liked touring plans at first but now it has me so stressed out. Planning everything to the minute has made me crazy and their wait times put in dont seem accurate.

 

[JESSketeer]

We use EasyWDW as a general guideline. We will however go to a park on a non recommended day, for example MK during one of the only nights MSEP is scheduled.

 

[kennythepirate]

Based on the huge number of guests carrying around paper maps and waiting in 60 minute lines, I highly doubt enough people plan anything to blame guest flow on a few crowd calendars that most have never heard about.

 

[nilla]

Based on the huge number of guests carrying around paper maps and waiting in 60 minute lines, I highly doubt enough people plan anything to blame guest flow on a few crowd calendars that most have never heard about.

Granted this was 10 years ago, but I was blown away when nearly the entire elevator up to the Astro Orbiter asked me, "what's this FastPass thing you're talking about?", after hearing me tell our son we had FPs for Splash Mountain.

 

[Love Tink]

Think about how many people you know (family, friends, neighbors) who have gone to WDW. Now think about how many of those used crowd calendars.

I think the percentage of people using crowd calendars is smaller than the percentage of people who buy their tickets at a ticket booth when they arrive.

 

[BeerMe]

I sometimes look at calendars after I've already set up my park schedule. There is really no accurate way to compare park crowds since as someone already pointed out you can't be in two places at once.

 

[RLGNC]

I like to use crowd calendars as a place to start in terms of planning my park days. I believe that the number of people using crowd calendars is relatively very small, and so there probably is some merit in using the recommended days as a guide if you don't have any other specific reasons for choosing other parks.

 

[MainMom]

I used easywdw crowd calendar for my July trip last year and thought it was great. However, my expectations were that it was JULY with tour groups and it was going to be busy. 8's and 9's didn't scare me. What else were they going to be for July? We did everything we wanted and more. Maybe it was the right park on the right day, maybe it was my amazing planning for 11 people, or maybe it was just luck. Probably a bit of all of it.

 

[DisneyFive]

Granted this was 10 years ago, but I was blown away when nearly the entire elevator up to the Astro Orbiter asked me, "what's this FastPass thing you're talking about?", after hearing me tell our son we had FPs for Splash Mountain.

Those were the days! It was still sorta like that on our first trip in 2010. We took full advantage of it though. It just meant more FP availability for us who bothered to plan and research. ...and shhhhh... not to mention the ability to use our paper FP's past the stated time window. Of our relatively narrow years of going to WDW, those were the glory days.

Dan

 

[tlmadden73]

The problem I see with crowd calendars is that they've been around a while now . .and with sites like this and the word simply getting out .. it is like a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Year 0 - People go to WDW.
Year 1 - Make crowd predictions based on Year 0 attendance - Notice that February and September are sparsely attended. Report it.
Year 2 - More people make plans to go in Febrauary and Sept. They want lower crowds. Crowd sites make predictions based on last year.
Year 3 - People tell all their friends "We went in month X and it wasn't crowded!" - Those friends decided to go to Disney that time too. Crowd sites still predicting those times are slow . .but maybe not as slow as previous years.

And repeat that cycle over and over .. every year getting worse and worse as more people find the "busy" times too busy and shift towards the non-busy times until the "slow" times everyone got used to are as crowded as the summer.

Add in that Disney caught on and started make all these crazy events to get people to come during these slow times (marathons, dance competitions, food & wine, etc.). Factor in discounts .. and voila .. crowd calendars just can't predict the "slow" time anymore ESPECIALLY on a day to day basis. I've never understood that .. how can you really accurately predict that Monday will be a slow day at MK without having information they don't have (like how many hotels are booked, how many tickets sold, etc. etc.) .. it's like the weather - an educated guess that is wrong as often as right.