To Infinity and Beyond - Becoming a Better DopeyBadger (Comments Welcome)

[garneska]

OMG they are so tiny and adorable.

 

[TeeterTots]

Puppy pic #2 love the curls!

 

[bovie]

Listened to the podcast during yesterday's run. Super cool. And that puppy is gorgeous.

 

[DopeyBadger]

Listened to the podcast during yesterday's run. Super cool. And that puppy is gorgeous.

Thanks!

 

[DopeyBadger]

11 Weeks to go + HIM Base Mid Volume Cycling + (LIIFT 4 + McMillan Core/Legs)

2/8/21 - M - OFF
2/9/21 - T - Pioneer+1 (60 min; 69 TSS) + 30 min Brick Run @ Easy
2/10/21 - W - 30 min Run @ Easy
2/11/21 - R - Ramp Test (25 min; 33 TSS)
2/12/21 - F - LIIFT4-Shoulders + Pettit (60 min; 39 TSS)
2/13/21 - Sa - Warlow (90 min; 111 TSS) + 32 min Brick Run @ Easy
2/14/21 - Su - LIIFT4-Chest/Tri + McMillan Legs + 54 min @ Long Run

Total Run Miles - 16.6 miles
Total Run Time - 2:26 hours
Total Run TSS - x TSS

Total Biking Time - 3:55 hours
Total Biking TSS - 252 TSS

Total Strength Time - 1:16 hours
Total Strength TSS - x TSS

Total Training Time - 7:38 hours
Total TSS - x TSS

Monday

So I saw the PT for another appointment. We are both happy with the progress thus far. She agreed with @dis_or_dat 's assessment that the reason for new pain is because the original tendon is healing and the one traveling up the leg that wraps from the bottom of the foot towards the achilles and up the calf is irritated. We've got some new exercises to add. She said this one should be easier to correct than the other one.


Tuesday

The week's training schedule had to change because G's birthday was on Thursday and her Zoom party was on Saturday. So there wasn't a ton of flexibility throughout this week's schedule to work with.

Started off the week with a brick workout. Pioneer +1 increases the 45-minute segment nestled inside of the hour-long workout to 85-90% FTP. This is high end HIM tempo and bleeding into sub-threshold work instead. A fairly difficult workout on paper, although I handled it well.

Conditions - Clear, Wind 6mph to 10mph
Start: Temp+Dew = 1°F + -6°F; FL - -10°F
End: Temp+Dew = 0°F + -7°F; FL - -10°F

Still living in the arctic! A simple 30 min easy run immediately after the cycling ended. In all it was 3.4 miles in 30 min at 8:56 pace with HR of 129. Happy about it all.


Wednesday

Just a simple and relaxing 30 min run.

Conditions - Partly Cloudy, Wind 6mph to 10mph
Start: Temp+Dew = 6°F + -2°F; FL - -5°F
End: Temp+Dew = 4°F + -3°F; FL - -5°F

One of these days we might break 0F wind chill... In total it was 3.3 miles in 30 min at 9:03 pace with HR of 126. The ankle continues to be stubborn. I can tell it really really really wants to crack but won't. That seems to be the underlying issue at the moment. I have very limited movement trying to shift it to the left/right. That's one of the things we're working on with the bands. Plus I've been flexing the foot trying to get it to relax and crack.


Thursday

It was G's birthday! She's 7!



Ramp Test at the mid-point of the training plan.





A decent effort. Not quite peak cycling fitness, but a good 3% improvement from a few months ago.


Friday

A simple endurance ride. Pettit is an hour of aerobic Endurance work spent between 60-70% FTP.


Saturday

Gigi's Harry Potter themed birthday party!













We did Polyjuice Potion Charades and learned some 1st grade Hogwarts spells. We actually got the last one "ridikulus" to work!

Afterwards, it was time for a really challenging cycle. Over/unders... Literally my least favorite cycling type. Warlow is 5x9-minute over-under intervals alternating between 2 minutes at 95% FTP and 1 minute at 110% FTP with 6-minute recoveries between intervals. An absolutely brutal workout. I was barely holding on at the end.

Then it was time to head outside to run in some uncleaned snow covered roads.

Conditions - Overcast, Wind 13mph to 17mph
Start: Temp+Dew = 3°F + -7°F; FL - -14°F
End: Temp+Dew = 3°F + -7°F; FL - -14°F

Tough to get footing and a slow going run. But I kept the easy effort and adjusted the pace. Couldn't really see the pace much during the run. But the end result was as desired. In total it was 32 min, 3.3 miles, 9:42 pace and HR of 131. So the easy effort was nailed.


Sunday

The cold was brutal in the morning, so I just waited till the afternoon. I decided to flip the LIIFT4 and run order and do lifting first. So it was LIIFT4-Chest/Tri and then followed that up with McMillan Legs.

Watched the end of the Badger basketball game, and then it was time to head out the door for the long run of the week.

Conditions - Mostly Cloudy, Wind 13mph to 18mph
Start: Temp+Dew = -1°F + -12°F; FL - -19°F
End: Temp+Dew = 1°F + -11°F; FL - -19°F

Another snow covered road run. I'll be happy when these roads are clean and I don't have to fight for every step. I was able to keep myself in a reasonable place. In total, it was 6.6 miles in 54 min at 8:06 pace with HR of 141.



The knee muscle is a little sore. But I'm not shocked since I've been fighting snow the last two days and because the over/unders on Saturday were brutal.

Fitness is in a good place. Still holding steady at a Garmin VO2max of 55. Only two more weeks of exclusively easy running. If the roads clear up, I'll probably add in some strides if the ankle continues its good progress. The volume will start to tick up next week with 3.5 hrs and 25 miles on tap. It's also puppy week! We pick Dizzy up on Thursday!

 

[DopeyBadger]

A boy stopped by earlier and gave G flowers and chocolates for Valentines Day. And so it begins...

 

[DopeyBadger]

 

[TeeterTots]

O-M-G! Presh!

 

[Sleepless Knight]

The Harry Potter theme looked awesome. Clever to find a way to do it remotely.

I've heard it said that fathers are very protective of their daughters because they were once boys and therefore know exactly what they're up against.

 

[DopeyBadger]

Milwaukee Marathon was postponed to October 2021. Looks like I made the right choice in aiming for the Non-Cancelled instead. They had a pretty robust/lengthy refund policy, except that it appears they specifically left out that a "postponed" race is not a "cancelled" race and therefore no refunds.

 

[dis_or_dat]

Awww the doggie is so cute!

Love the zoom birthday - my poor DH and DS had their birthdays at the beginning of the pandemic and I barely could find ingredients for a cake. I can't believe they'll have another birthday in this environment, but at least now I can take advantage of everyone else's creativity!

Great job running in such tough conditions!

 

[DopeyBadger]

Awww the doggie is so cute!

Love the zoom birthday - my poor DH and DS had their birthdays at the beginning of the pandemic and I barely could find ingredients for a cake. I can't believe they'll have another birthday in this environment, but at least now I can take advantage of everyone else's creativity!

Great job running in such tough conditions!

Thanks! G was pretty lucky last year as one of the last live birthdays. We saw the birthday planning as an opportunity to fill time the last few months with crafts in preparation for the party. So the party itself was 1.5 hrs, but the prep and time filled doing activities was far far longer.

I'm happy the sub-zero is done and we're moving into the golden training temp zone.

 

[DopeyBadger]

10 Weeks to go + HIM Base Mid Volume Cycling + (LIIFT 4 + McMillan Core/Legs)

2/15/21 - M - OFF
2/16/21 - T - Shortoff (60 min; 71 TSS) + McMillan Legs
2/17/21 - W - 45 min Run @ Easy
2/18/21 - R - McAdie-1 (75 min; 89 TSS) + 31 min Brick Run @ Easy w/ strides
2/19/21 - F - Pettit (60 min; 39 TSS) + LIIFT4-Back/Biceps
2/20/21 - Sa - Phoenix (90 min; 95 TSS) + 45 min Brick Run @ Easy
2/21/21 - Su - 90 min @ Long Run w/ strides + LIIFT4-Chest/Tri

Total Run Miles - 25.8 miles
Total Run Time - 3:31 hours
Total Run TSS - x TSS

Total Biking Time - 4:45 hours
Total Biking TSS - 294 TSS

Total Strength Time - 1:18 hours
Total Strength TSS - x TSS

Total Training Time - 9:35 hours
Total TSS - x TSS

Tuesday

So I didn't like how the upper side of the inner side of my knee muscle felt. This is a similar place where I had issues during the Disney Marathon 2020. And I had tiny hints in training prior to that. So I'd prefer to avoid that issue again. I felt like the Saturday workout was one interval too long. So I looked at the upcoming Tuesday and Thursday workouts and took out the last interval. I kept the intensity the same though.

Shortoff consists of 2 sets of 3x2-minute VO2 Max intervals at 120% FTP. Recovery between intervals is 2 minutes long and recovery between sets of intervals is 5 minutes long. I felt good about this one. Not easy, but not pushing to the limit.

G came down and joined me for the McMillan Legs workout.


Wednesday

The running volume is starting to tick up now. A 45 min easy run.

Conditions - Mostly Cloudy, Wind 3mph to 5mph
Start: Temp+Dew = 14°F + 6°F; FL - 8°F
End: Temp+Dew = 13°F + 6°F; FL - 8°F

I don't remember how the ankle felt. I don't think it was zero, but not terrible either. In all it was 5.1 miles in 45 min at 8:52 pace with HR of 131.


Thursday

McAdie -1 is 4x9-minute over-under intervals alternating between 2 minutes at 95% FTP and 1 minute at 105% FTP. 6-minute recoveries fall between intervals. Happy with how it felt, and glad I dropped the last interval.

Afterwards, I headed out the door for the brick run of 30 min.

Conditions - Partly Cloudy, Wind 6mph to 6mph
Start: Temp+Dew = 23°F + 14°F; FL - 15°F
End: Temp+Dew = 22°F + 14°F; FL - 15°F

I wore the Next % because I wanted to see how those felt on the ankle. I don't believe it was much different than the day prior. I threw in some strides at the end. Things felt ok. In all it was 3.8 miles, 31 min, 8:07 pace and HR of 136. Definitely on the fast side of easy.


Friday

Easy bike ride. Pettit is an hour of aerobic Endurance work spent between 60-70% FTP.

Followed that ride up with LIIFT4 Back and Biceps.


Saturday

Extending out the brick! Phoenix is 90 minutes of continuous riding where you'll spend 75 minutes between 80-85% FTP. Rear end was a little sore, but the muscles felt alright.

Conditions - Clear, Wind 7mph to 11mph
Start: Temp+Dew = 16°F + 11°F; FL - 5°F
End: Temp+Dew = 17°F + 12°F; FL - 5°F

Headed out the door for a 45 min easy brick run. The ankle was off and on. Ended up being 5.4 miles, 45 min, 8:24 pace, and HR of 132. That's some decent movement on the HR. The VO2max stayed the same at 55 though. Had a feeling I'd see 56 after Sunday's run.


Sunday

Extending out the long run to 90 min.

Conditions - Overcast, Wind 11mph to 20mph
Start: Temp+Dew = 20°F + 17°F; FL - 8°F
End: Temp+Dew = 23°F + 20°F; FL - 8°F

I wore the Next % again to test them out. The ankle was off and on again. Sometimes it felt not great, and other times it felt normal. So still making progress, but still not healed. Despite the longer distance though, the ankle still felt alright completing the distance.



I wanted to stick around a 7:55 GAP. So much for that plan. After about the first 4 miles, I just kind of settled in and stopped paying attention. Despite the slight increase in pace I actually felt like the effort had dropped slightly. I had a few minutes left on the run once I got home so I did some strides. All in all it was 90 min, 11.6 miles, 7:48 pace with HR of 142. So on the high side of long run effort, but still a distance from marathon effort. Happy with it overall.

The Garmin VO2max increased to 56. It's a little early, but I feel like with 10 weeks to go I'm in the range of it being ok. So I'm not concerned. The increase in VO2max coincides with the first week of two or less days of >0 running form values. The exact minimal level I've seen in the past needed to see this increase. So everything continues to line up with past experiences.

The volume drops back down next week. Then, I start the real training with 9 weeks to go.

 

[DopeyBadger]

Has all the juice been squeezed?

I was poking through the data and found two ways to express the data which was interesting to me. None of it groundbreaking, but rather confirmatory to past inclinations.



For all my races since Feb 2017, this is the relationship between my Garmin VO2max on my Garmin 235 and the Race VDOT value as calculated per the Jack Daniels method. Again, VDOT is a simple expression of all race times on the same scale. So a 19:56 5k, 41:21 10k, 1:31:35 HM, and 3:10:45 M are all a VDOT of 50. That's to say that a person with a VDOT of 50 should be able to run all of those times.

The data is interesting because it confirms my long held belief that my Garmin VO2max value is indicative of my current fitness ability. It's not all that surprising since the HRvPace relationship is what dictates the output of Garmin VO2max based on a look-up table. But it does confirm, that if I want to have a fast race time, then I need to have a higher Garmin VO2max value the week of the race. The green dots are Dopey races.



My PRs are interesting as they're all clustered together. My 2018 10k of 39:54 stands above them all as my best performance with a VDOT of 52.1. My 2019 HM of 1:28:40 isn't far behind at 51.9. My 2020 mile and 2018 5k are roughly the same at 51.5 and 51.3 respectively. The only race that is a bit of an outlier from the group is the marathon from Oct 2017 of 3:14:05 at a VDOT of 49. It only further validates my internal feelings that I don't feel as if I've truly conquered the marathon distance yet.



The other interesting graph was putting together all my Race VDOTs since I started running in 2012. It's a nice way of being able to put all my races in a single line graph. It also accounts for the Dopey races because you have that near downward linear representation when they occur. So visually it doesn't disrupt the information as much. It's a nice visual to show where I've come from to where I am. I see a nice steady increase from my first race (Oct 2012, VDOT 29.9) to what looks to be a reoccurring peak starting in May 2017 when I ran the Bunny Head Time Trial #1. Ever since that May 2017 race, I've sort of plateaued in performance. Nice steady increase in performance from Oct 2012 to May 2017, and then a plateauing from May 2017 to May 2020 (my last race effort). It begs the question, has all the juice been squeezed? Is a VDOT of around 52 roughly my peak performance? Over the span of 4.5 years I increased performance by 74% (29.9 to 51.4), but over the next 3 years I only raised my performance by 1%. I hit about 7,000 career miles around that May 2017 timeframe. It's not for a lack of increased training either, because the summer/fall of 2017 was my most aggressive pure run based training plan (averaged 55 miles per week and 7.5 hrs running per week). The summer/fall/winter was my most aggressive training plan overall when I averaged 4 hrs running + 7 hrs cycling + 2.5 hrs strength (13.5 hrs per week for 29 weeks). Pre-May 2017 I was never really injured. I had the Lakefront 2016 injury, but was back mostly to normal after my normal two week post-marathon hiatus. But Jan 2018 saw the minor confirmed stress fracture, summer of 2018 was ankle tendonitis, spring 2020 was hamstring issues, and winter 2020-2021 has been a different ankle injury.

If indeed a VDOT of 52 is truly my max performance, then that places the marathon at a 3:04:30. If that's truly the best I can ever expect, then that still means I've got about 10 min to cut off my marathon time. So we're not quite done yet. But it does tell me that if I truly ever want to crack 3 hours in the marathon, then I've yet to prove I'm even capable at any other distance from the mile to half marathon. The flip side is, since 2017 I've only had the fitness of sub-3 for 0.6% of the time (or 1 week in the last 181 weeks). That one week was 12/31/17 which was right before Dopey 2018, arguably my best racing performance ever.



So I need to see a Garmin VO2max of 59 or 60 to reasonably have a chance to beat a 3:04 or VDOT of 52.

 

[disneygpa]

According to the current data then, does that mean you can't run a sub 3? Or you just have to figure out how to increase your VO2 max by training differently?

Also, do you use a chest strap for HR or is it all from the Garmin? I was watching video where the runner started getting different VO2 max readings once he switched to a chest strap. Just curious if you have input either way.

 

[DopeyBadger]

According to the current data then, does that mean you can't run a sub 3?

That's correct. Based on the data I've collected to date, I need to have an ideal condition race and have a Garmin VO2max of 60 to break 3 hours. In the past 181 weeks, I've only had a Garmin VO2max of 60 once. This comes from the idea that as a conversion between my Garmin VO2max and my Race VDOT performance, the best delta has been 5.9. Since a VDOT of 54 is needed for a 2:59 marathon, then I need a 59.9 or better Garmin VO2max in order to achieve that. So based on the last 3.5 years of data, it means a lot of things have to align perfectly for it even to be possible based on the previous data. Doesn't make it impossible, but rather improbable based on the data.

Or you just have to figure out how to increase your VO2 max by training differently?

If we are to believe there is a connection between my race performance and Garmin VO2max (which I believe the data shows there is), then yes, I would need to find a way to get my Garmin VO2max at 60 or above more often (or ignoring the Garmin VO2max value, I would need to improve my HRvPace relationship). The last 3.5 years of data shows I haven't determined a method that can do that yet. Let alone also keep me healthy. A lot of the time spent in 2017-2020 was all about pushing the limits of training to get that higher level fitness. It's also probably been a cause to my injuries. So this current training plan is a "less is more" approach and trying to be efficient with the training. Not necessarily more, but rather using the data collected to date to determine an easier/efficient path. Use a scalpel instead of a hammer.

It's entirely plausible that what I've been doing hasn't been working in order to achieve fitness levels above my current peak. So whether I need something different is entirely possible and remains to be seen what new potential path would be needed. I want to see how this current training plan plays out, but I've toyed with the idea of hiring a coach in the past and maybe that's the path I'll need to go down. Give up my full control on the training and see if someone else's perspective on my training can yield a different result.

Also, do you use a chest strap for HR or is it all from the Garmin? I was watching video where the runner started getting different VO2 max readings once he switched to a chest strap. Just curious if you have input either way.

So I view my Garmin 235 as a closed system. It's the classic, is it precise, accurate or both/neither?



For the purpose of how I evaluated the data, I only need my Garmin 235 data to be precise. It does not need to be accurate. In a real world example, my Garmin VO2max and VDOT should be much closer. Not a best case scenario of delta 5.9. But since I've got that delta baked into my evaluation it allows me to view the data in a manner where it doesn't have to be accurate. I used to wear a chest strap with my Garmin 620 from Dec 2014 to Sep 2015. But around that time I developed a wound from the constant rubbing of the device and the values were becoming erroneous (possible battery issues). But during the time I believed it was working, the HR values I got from the chest strap were higher than the values I now get from my Garmin 235 wrist based system. For example, in Feb 2015 my average HR for the month was 153 bpm. Which means I was averaging what is now considered just above my HM HR on a daily basis. I'd venture to guess that if I wore a chest strap today, I'd see higher values than what my wrist based 235 is outputting.

Since the Garmin VO2max value is simply a HRvPace look up table, then if I expect to see different HRs with a chest strap, I'd also see different Garmin VO2max values. But then that would simply change the potential delta I see for Garmin VO2max vs VDOT and not actually change anything physically. The predictions would remain the same, but with a different adjustment baked in that needs to be determined over time.

 

[SheHulk]

Love the classic scientific reasoning course precision/accuracy dartboard coming into real-world use!

 

[garneska]

Funny i was thinking about asking you about VO2Max and how to keep it up. Or does it not stay up that long. Mine is usually about 48 or 49. i got it up to 50 but it went back down in 3 days to 49. It seems it is better for it to be higher but how do you keep it increasing. From a training perspective i have been increasing weekly mileage by running more miles during the week but keeping the long run not so long. I am trying to slow down (you know that is hard for me ) but it seems when i run slower it makes the VO2 go up.

 

[DopeyBadger]

Alright, lots to pull apart here.

Mine is usually about 48 or 49. i got it up to 50 but it went back down in 3 days to 49.

So in my experience, it's not uncommon to see a lot of bounce during the week. I view that as the micro scale. Kind of like looking at HR in the middle of the run. I feel it's too "micro" for the information to be useful. So I prefer the macro version which is the VO2max on the weekly scale. It has far less bounce variation, although it does happen.

So why should we expect variation during the week in the Garmin VO2max value? Because again, it's simply a HRvPace relationship and lookup table. The following two graphs are a visual representation of that information I've shown before:





So if something effects the HRvPace relationship, then you're going to see bounce. If say Wednesday you did a flat route and then Saturday you did a super hilly route, well the Garmin VO2max calculation doesn't take that into account. It just sees your HR and your pace, and forms the relationship like the above. If it's on the blue line, then your VO2max is X. If it's on the green line, then your VO2max is X+5 (arbitrary numbers being used). Beyond just route differences, you aren't always as fresh day to day and thus your HR may not respond the same. So maybe Tuesday is a big workout day and you see a bump up, and Wednesday is a total recovery run, and you see a bump back down. These things will happen on the micro scale based on how your body is responding to different workouts. But I wouldn't pay it as much mind as the big picture over several weeks of data.

Or does it not stay up that long.

It does not. If it did, then we wouldn't necessarily need to train to reach current peak fitness. Now again, Garmin VO2max isn't the end all be all. You can't solely focus on increasing it without realizing that actually running races takes more more built up skills than just the relationship between HR and Pace. It's a good barometer, but not the whole picture.

With that being said, it doesn't surprise me that we see ebb and flow in the Garmin VO2max value over the course of weeks, months, or years.



I'd love to have data pre-Feb 2017. Especially since my data previously shown shows a plateauing of fitness at May 2017 with the near peak VDOT performance. It's my belief that what we see represented above is the plateau and me bouncing around on a weekly scale. If the data pre-2017 was available, I'm fairly confident we'd see something mirroring what we see in this Race VDOT graph. With my Garmin VO2max being in the 36-ish range back when I started.



Going back to the Garmin VO2 max graph, we see the VO2max value fall and rise during the periods of training. During the "stress fracture" period and "TrainerRoad + 80DO" period (both time periods with zero running), it's pretty clear to see that my Garmin VO2max has fallen from previously. So a loss of fitness or a downturn in the relationship between my HR and my pace. Conversely as the training plan progresses, you can see my Garmin VO2max rise.

I feel as if this latest training plan is kind of a proof positive. Can I manipulate the increase of the Garmin VO2max value through the use of total volume of training and the rate at which the training is increasing (run training load form)? What really sticks out to me about the latest training plan is the intentional flatness of this first phase. It's unlike anything else in the last 4 years. So it drives home my belief that I'm truly manipulating that factor in the moment. Now we should see it start to rise dramatically in the next few weeks as I manipulate it differently during this second phase.

It seems it is better for it to be higher but how do you keep it increasing.

The goal is to become faster. The Garmin VO2max value is a surrogate for that, but again not the end all be all. So good training will get the Garmin VO2max value to rise, because you're running faster at the same HR levels.

What these last two training plans have been about is trying to prove/disprove what the data said from Feb 2017 through June 2020.

What's next? Summer/Fall 2020 Training Plan
-Training Plan (see 2nd half of post)

These two posts detail the ideas behind the last two training plans. But in summary, I saw a trend that when my run training load "form" value was at less than 0 for 5 out of 7 days, then I was seeing a steady increase in Garmin VO2max. I also saw that those gains were limited in time such that if I attempted to increase the training for too many weeks in a row, then I would become injured or see my Garmin VO2max fall. Additionally, if I recovered mid-training, and then attempted to try and get my run training load form back into the "less than 0 for 5 out of 7 days zone" then I would still get injured or decrease my Garmin VO2max value. So the goal was to create a training plan that has that necessary zone, is consistently in that zone, but stays in that zone for a limited time leading into the race.

The following three sets of graphs illustrate this point. They cover the 2020 Disney training (which includes my November 2019 HM PR), my 1st attempt at manipulating this with my 2020 summer/fall training plan, and then my current attempt with the winter 2020/spring 2021 training plan. Each set of graphs has a dual y-axis with either Garmin VO2max and RUN+(CYCLE/2) Volume or Running "Form". Because I believe these two characteristics of the training to be interlinked.







With the Summer 2020 plan showing a nice increase as soon as the blue line drops below 0.0 (the y-axis midline). And with the Winter 2020 plan showing the blue line staying above 0 on a consistent basis, and my Garmin VO2max value staying relatively unchanged. You can see the theoretical values for the blue line coming up in the future and how it drops below zero once I enter Phase 2 (purposefully trying to increase Garmin VO2max in combination with good traditional run training).

Another way to say "less than 0 for 5 out of 7 days" is " the training should be different/more than what you were doing a few weeks ago, but not too much more". I am a responder to progression and need a short build up. I can't say whether everyone else is the same. I'm sure that some people are like me and respond this way, but I'm also sure that there are probably others that do better on less progression and more steady state.

Secondarily, it can't simply be about staying in the "less than 0 for 5 out of 7 days" zone. It also has to do with the volume of running you are doing. My previous data shows that unless I hit certain thresholds of volume, I don't see my Garmin VO2max value go above a certain threshold either. So rate increase isn't enough, the volume matters as well.

It's important to remember the context as well. All of this data collected in the last 4 years is based on traditional training plans. That's to say I didn't go out and run purely easy runs and expect to hit new high Garmin VO2max values.

Additionally, something I haven't been as good about lately that I was in the past, but that I'm trying to be good about in this moment - is really remembering that aerobic fitness (which the HRvPace relationship is representative of) improves at a faster rate than does skeletal/muscular gains. So if during second phase I see incremental continuous Garmin VO2max gains, I can't keep running at a HR of 140. Because that might be a 7:50 with 9 weeks to go, and a 7:30 with 2 weeks to go. Aerobically I've improved, but physically I'm not there yet. So I've got to stick to pace goals here in phase 2 rather than allowing my effort/HR to dictate an ever flowing down drop in pace. Because my body might not be able to handle it quite yet. I've seen over the last 9 years that I'm better off training too slow than too fast. Being too slow in training doesn't hold me back on race day. So I'm planning on training as if my VDOT is a 52 (or Garmin VO2max of 58) regardless of what might happen late in training. Which means my easy days need to stay in the 8:50-9:30 area, my LRs in the 7:45-8:00 area, marathon is 7:02, and HM is 6:45.

I am trying to slow down (you know that is hard for me ) but it seems when i run slower it makes the VO2 go up.

To me, that says you are seeing a better HR v Pace relationship on your slow end of the spectrum than your faster end. Lots of potential explanations for it. But it may be too micro for it to matter in the big picture.

 

[dis_or_dat]

I think you mentioned this before, but at your level it’s hard to move the needle as much even with significant training vs when you first started and was able to shave off a lot of time with some training.

I don’t believe you’ve squeezed out all your juice. I do think you can achieve a sub 3. I’m not a coach by any stretch of the imagination, but sometimes I wonder if you’re training too hard. I know you ascribe to something like an 80:20 and not overloading yourself but sometimes I look at your week and I’m exhausted! You’re definitely seeing results from all your hard work with your recent mile PR and the science and past data back up your regimen. But sometimes science is an art and everyone responds to training differently. Some thrive and some get injured. Anyways, this is just a gut feeling biased by the fact I could never be able to handle your training load and not backed by anything else.

Also I think environmental factors play a huge role. You’re able to maintain high paces on slippery snow/ice, but unconsciously your body works harder to keep you from falling so your VO2 max drops.

Even right before races I’m trained up (because of your plans), but my VO2 max drops which causes major panic attacks. But currently I’m running about only 6 mi/day easy-long run pace and my VO2 max has been 53-56! Makes no sense to me except maybe the weather is cooler and I sometimes throw in strides at the very end.