Thoughts on Lowball Offer

[MICKIMINI]

I saw the 135 pt poly contract your referencing there was a second contract yesterday for 135 points at poly with no points and 135 pts coming March of 2021. The seller was asking 143$ i offered 130$ they countered at 135$ i accepted. Lowering the cost 1080$ just for me asking was more than reasonable to me. Moving forward, very excited

It covered your closing costs!

 

[Nocheeba20]

How would you assess the value of 2019 and some 2020 points offered in a contract.Some of these were returned to the account because a reservation was canceled. Could take three months till closing. The parks still aren’t open. This glut of points could take a couple of years to work through.

 

[DisMomKY]

How would you assess the value of 2019 and some 2020 points offered in a contract.Some of these were returned to the account because a reservation was canceled. Could take three months till closing. The parks still aren’t open. This glut of points could take a couple of years to work through.

I’m counting as if the banked into 2019 points don’t matter and the 2019 can be banked into 2020 l, I will ask them to do that with an accepted offer if they accept

 

[Drewferin]

You send email back that broker the following:

"The macroeconomy conditions around the world have changed and will continue to change due to Covid-19. In the United States over 30 million American have lost their jobs and luxury items such as DVC will be the first items sold by members so that they can afford their mortgage payments.

As the demand for DVC starts to decrease over the summer months sellers will have to accept lower and lower prices. At the same time the supply of resale contracts is likely to also surge as more DVC members have to make monthly DVC payments while unemployed. Just like the 2008 Great Recession DVC prices were deflated for years without the presence of ROFR. For these reasons listed above we can agree to disagree, but your responsibility as a broker still requires that you present my offers to DVC resale clients. XOXO "

 

[Cyberc1978]

Opinions please.

earlier this week I made an offer on a 125 VGF contract with all 2019 points and onwards. Yesterday we agreed to $145 pp and sellers paying closing. I’ll cover 2020 dues.

 

[CastAStone]

This is a Buyer's market but nothing is going 20% off list price. Sales are quite brisk:
2020: 1,274 contracts listed for sale and 1,247 sold through April (97.9%)
We are averaging $1.3 million /wk in sales since the Covid!

What's a list price? Does he mean the arbitrary number that the seller sets the contract at?

I've been tracking DVC Resale Market since 4/9. I assume that's who this email came from based on the volume. Of the 444 contracts listed for sale on 4/9, 283 are still listed for sale. Of those, only 47 have dropped their asking price. The 4/9 asking price for the contracts that have been sitting averaged $128/pt. The contracts listed today that weren't listed on 4/9 have an average price of about $118/pt.

So let's assume he's telling the truth and sales are brisk, what that tells me is that what's selling is contracts with below March-level market asking prices are moving, but the stagnation of 2/3rds of the contracts on their website tells me that there's still a lot of confusion between asking prices and what the actual market price of those contracts is today.

 

[MICKIMINI]

How would you assess the value of 2019 and some 2020 points offered in a contract.Some of these were returned to the account because a reservation was canceled. Could take three months till closing. The parks still aren’t open. This glut of points could take a couple of years to work through.

2019 points IMHO should be "free". They are worth $8+/- if you plan to use them, so 100 points would be worth $800 not bad. If you transfer them to another owner about $16 or $1600 (fee?). Rentals, unless with friends you can work with are scary right now...I have two pending with a broker yikes!

 

[MICKIMINI]

What's a list price? Does he mean the arbitrary number that the seller sets the contract at?

I've been tracking DVC Resale Market since 4/9. I assume that's who this email came from based on the volume. Of the 444 contracts listed for sale on 4/9, 283 are still listed for sale. Of those, only 47 have dropped their asking price. The 4/9 asking price for the contracts that have been sitting averaged $128/pt. The contracts listed today that weren't listed on 4/9 have an average price of about $118/pt.

So let's assume he's telling the truth and sales are brisk, what that tells me is that what's selling is contracts with below March-level market asking prices are moving, but the stagnation of 2/3rds of the contracts on their website tells me that there's still a lot of confusion between asking prices and what the actual market price of those contracts is today.

I looked at a contract today and it was listed in September of 2019! It said "Make an Offer" - yah, no kidding!

 

[squirrel!33]

I saw the 135 pt poly contract your referencing there was a second contract yesterday for 135 points at poly with no points and 135 pts coming March of 2021. The seller was asking 143$ i offered 130$ they countered at 135$ i accepted. Lowering the cost 1080$ just for me asking was more than reasonable to me. Moving forward, very excited

Congrats on your purchase - good price!

 

[ljlaurajane]

I don't mind. The first two were a couple weeks ago and we offered $88. The last one just a couple days ago and we tried $82.

Not dissimilar to us then, we've been putting various offers in over the last week or so, ranging from $75 to $85, not managed to get anything yet. But sounds like there are a fair few of us on the boards here looking at a smaller SSR contract, probably offering on similar contracts so I'm sure the brokers will hopefully get the memo soon enough we we are all offering ball park the same prices!

 

[Disney Teresa]

I completely agree with you here,

This morning we had an low offer rejected on a 100 points saratoga contract. I recevied the following email reply:


This is a Buyer's market but nothing is going 20% off list price. Sales are quite brisk:
2020: 1,274 contracts listed for sale and 1,247 sold through April (97.9%)
We are averaging $1.3 million /wk in sales since the Covid!

To me this is typical broker reply. Ignore it! We are early to the party, and they are late. When they arrive things will move faster.

I just had this same conversation with a broker... going to wait a week and see what happens...

Called about a few possible Saratoga contracts and basically told they would present any offer but my price per point was too low and probably would not fly.

 

[Jason_79]

What's a list price? Does he mean the arbitrary number that the seller sets the contract at?

I've been tracking DVC Resale Market since 4/9. I assume that's who this email came from based on the volume. Of the 444 contracts listed for sale on 4/9, 283 are still listed for sale. Of those, only 47 have dropped their asking price. The 4/9 asking price for the contracts that have been sitting averaged $128/pt. The contracts listed today that weren't listed on 4/9 have an average price of about $118/pt.

So let's assume he's telling the truth and sales are brisk, what that tells me is that what's selling is contracts with below March-level market asking prices are moving, but the stagnation of 2/3rds of the contracts on their website tells me that there's still a lot of confusion between asking prices and what the actual market price of those contracts is today.

This is an excellent post, and accurate! It is DVC Resale Market.

When I put my next lower offer in I wonder what reply i will get.

As these types of offers become more prevalent in the upcoming weeks and months, I just hope the brokers stop with the 'seller was offended' type of replies.

 

[ljlaurajane]

Yep sounds familiar, and yet the contracts are still for sale.....

 

[Sophie Weaver]

What's a list price? Does he mean the arbitrary number that the seller sets the contract at?

I've been tracking DVC Resale Market since 4/9. I assume that's who this email came from based on the volume. Of the 444 contracts listed for sale on 4/9, 283 are still listed for sale. Of those, only 47 have dropped their asking price. The 4/9 asking price for the contracts that have been sitting averaged $128/pt. The contracts listed today that weren't listed on 4/9 have an average price of about $118/pt.

So let's assume he's telling the truth and sales are brisk, what that tells me is that what's selling is contracts with below March-level market asking prices are moving, but the stagnation of 2/3rds of the contracts on their website tells me that there's still a lot of confusion between asking prices and what the actual market price of those contracts is today.

We've made an offer on 3 contracts that have been sitting since February 2020. Ranging from 80-120 points on the contract for either AKL or SSR. In all cases, they were priced at over $115 per point and the seller countered at $110+.... I was told that was as good as it would get. Mhmmm. We shall see!

 

[heynowirv]

We placed a bid on a loaded 50 point OKW for 100. They were asking 120. and are holding firm.... We walked.

 

[Cyberc1978]

This is an excellent post, and accurate! It is DVC Resale Market.

When I put my next lower offer in I wonder what reply i will get.

As these types of offers become more prevalent in the upcoming weeks and months, I just hope the brokers stop with the 'seller was offended' type of replies.

Brokers try to keep the prices higher due to them getting a higher commission.

At some point sellers will wake up and adjust the price accordingly.

I’ve been low balling for weeks at some point someone will bite.

generally dvc resales market tend to accept owners which aren’t in touch with reality and list a contract with a much higher asking than other. Just look at their vgf contract for the past 2 months or more the prices for vgf have been way too high. Now some have come down a bit.

 

[Cyberc1978]

We've made an offer on 3 contracts that have been sitting since February 2020. Ranging from 80-120 points on the contract for either AKL or SSR. In all cases, they were priced at over $115 per point and the seller countered at $110+.... I was told that was as good as it would get. Mhmmm. We shall see!

Late last year I bought a 160 point contract at SSR priced $102 it was loaded and I managed to rent the points for $19 so effectively I paid $83 as I didn’t pay dues on them.

if the contract is loaded with last years points then maybe you can offset some of the price by renting the extra points. That’s assuming you aren’t going to use them.

 

[Sophie Weaver]

Late last year I bought a 160 point contract at SSR priced $102 it was loaded and I managed to rent the points for $19 so effectively I paid $83 as I didn’t pay dues on them.

if the contract is loaded with last years points then maybe you can offset some of the price by renting the extra points. That’s assuming you aren’t going to use them.

So none of them were loaded. All were stripped with no points until either 2022 or they were December UY with 2021 points... which is why we were slightly surprised they were holding hard at $110+

 

[Sandisw]

What would you all offer on this one? It’s listed at 143.
Poly Dec Use year 135 pts

December 2019 - 54 points December 2020 - 160 points December 2021 - 135 points

Tried yesterday, They had multiple offers and turned down $131.

I went in only as high as $128

 

[Cyberc1978]

So none of them were loaded. All were stripped with no points until either 2022 or they were December UY with 2021 points... which is why we were slightly surprised they were holding hard at $110+

IMO I think the brokers are part of the problem combined with some people’s unrealistic idea of a sale price. If brokers are telling people that in the past SSR sold for like $110 per point then some will stick to that price and maybe list higher and then come “down” to $110