The WDW Comeback: Before/After Game

[rteetz]

This is tough because I think we will see at least a modified show return this summer. I’m going to say modified before.

 

[rpb718]

Topic 10: The Return of Nighttime Spectaculars at Epcot
Will we see Epcot Forever or Harmonious Before/After 7/3/2021?

Note: Any modified show would count. Fireworks is the metric.

I have a feeling we'll see the fountains before, lit up at night but still just the fountains. As for the actual Harmonius show itself - I'll have to go after.

 

[helloconnie]

Vaccines are moving along, I am getting my first shot later this week (high risk due to age), my daughter the nurse already has both shots, my son in law getting his second shot next week (first responder). So, I think it will be before, say just before the summer rush around 6/15.

I agree. I would even say by Memorial Day Weekend for the start of summer. With the J&J vaccine about to get emergency use authorization, the government purchasing more of the other two vaccines, and now it seems the new team in place is actually putting a plan and resources in place to get the vaccines in arms, I think we are going to see vaccinations really ramp up in the next month or two. Plus, positive cases are going down finally from the holiday travel everyone did. I think Disney Execs are watching this and if the vaccinations gain real momentum and the positive cases continue to fall, they can really make plans to add back attractions and services such as FP+, parades, fireworks, etc. If the vaccines are widely available by the end of April, I can see Disney removing most restrictions and asking guests to provide proof of vaccination upon check-in/entry (for locals). I think then you may be able to ease social distancing but still ask people to wear a mask. We'll see....

 

[MamaBTX]

After. I expect to see the shows/fireworks/FP+ etc., returning in the latter half of 2021.

 

[mattpeto]

I have a feeling we'll see the fountains before, lit up at night but still just the fountains. As for the actual Harmonius show itself - I'll have to go after.

Don’t dismiss that Epcot Forever could return prior to Harm.

 

[helloconnie]

Just to give everyone some math to bolster the idea that things could very possibly start returning at the beginning of the summer...

There are approximately 209 million adults over 18 in the US.
Roughly 40% of the adult population says they won't get the vaccine. That is about the same number that do not get the flu shot.
That leaves roughly 125,475,000 adults who want to get vaccinated.

As of 1/23/2021: 40 million doses have been distributed with 20,500,000 administered.
Biden has set a goal of 150,000,000 doses administered in his first 100 days, which is April 30.
Together, with what has already been distributed, this would equate to 95,500,000 adults receiving 2 doses by April 30.
That's 76% of the adults wanting to get vaccinated by April 30.

Now, with the J&J vaccine coming, if Biden can purchase and get delivered 30 million doses of this vaccine by April 1, then all Americans would theoretically be vaccinated by the end of April, since this is a single dose vaccine. And, I can see the J&J vaccine being distributed to doctor's offices and pharmacies for general vaccination since the efficacy is about the same as the flu shot. This will go to those who are the healthiest and at the lowest risk of serious complications.

We all know that stuff happens. So it is possible that complications arise such issues in the manufacturing process or even batches of the vaccine that need to be discarded for some reason. But... Even if that mark is missed, if we indeed get to 1,500,000 vaccines administered per day, that means another 45,000,000 vaccines administered by the end of May.

The Biden Administration does not want to over promise and under deliver but the numbers are very promising to have all Americans who want it to be vaccinated by the end of May.

From a business perspective, Disney is going to want to get back to normal operations for summer so they can attract the crowds. Once people are vaccinated, they will want to travel. Everyone is tired of being pent up. Heck, look at everyone who travelled over the holidays. But to attract people back, Disney is going to need to offer as much of the normal operations as possible or people will spend their vacations/money elsewhere.

So, I think the target should be mid May to get back to full operations with possibly the mask mandate in place, but ask that all guests provide proof of vaccination.

 

[rpb718]

Don’t dismiss that Epcot Forever could return prior to Harm.

I just don't see any one park having a nighttime show with hopping back. I really believe that there needs to be at least 2 parks with a nighttime fireworks show for this to happen.

 

[Lumpy1106]

Hey guys, full recap and count for Remy’s coming later today. For now, new topic incoming:

Topic 9: Space 220 Restaurant
Will it open Before or After 12/1/2021?

Fell behind a bit. I'm going to say BEFORE with this one. I had really hoped to eat here last summer and have hopes that will happen this summer. Unlike a ride, Space 220 is NOT owned by Disney and therefore there isn't the same reason to put off opening it (i.e. to draw in more crowds to WDW). It's AWFULLY close to opening now. I'd say once they are able to open without capacity restrictions, they will.

 

[Lumpy1106]

Topic 10: The Return of Nighttime Spectaculars at Epcot
Will we see Epcot Forever or Harmonious Before/After 7/3/2021?

Note: Any modified show would count. Fireworks is the metric.

Going with AFTER and I don't think this one is close. The only reason to re-start the kiss goodnight fireworks is to draw in crowds. If they aren't opening TRON or GotG, they aren't doing fireworks.

 

[Lumpy1106]

just to throw it out there, since everyone so far is saying "before" - what date would make some of you say after? 5/1? 9/1?

I totally agree with skeeter - 5/1 --> Space 220 --> 9/1

 

[mattpeto]

So, I think the target should be mid May to get back to full operations with possibly the mask mandate in place, but ask that all guests provide proof of vaccination.

Probably off topic a bit, but I'll indulge.

I was a immunity cert proponent, but the community here has talked sense into me.

While I think it's possible and may be in Disney's best interest, we are so far away from having any answers on vaccinating children.

The masks requirement isn't going way until there is herd immunity. Hopefully we are one day closer to that.

 

[helloconnie]

Probably off topic a bit, but I'll indulge.

I was a immunity cert proponent, but the community here has talked sense into me.

While I think it's possible and may be in Disney's best interest, we are so far away from having any answers on vaccinating children.

The masks requirement isn't going way until there is herd immunity. Hopefully we are one day closer to that.

Both Pfizer and Moderna are currently doing clinical trials for children ages 12-17. They are expected to have results in the early Spring. If the pattern holds, I would think they would apply for emergency use authorization and then vaccinations in this age group would start. There are approximately 25.5 million kids in this age group so it should not take too long to get them all vaccinated. While there is no vaccine for under 12, most reports indicate that this age group is low risk as long as they do not have any underlying health issues.

 

[TheMaxRebo]

Topic 10: The Return of Nighttime Spectaculars at Epcot
Will we see Epcot Forever or Harmonious Before/After 7/3/2021?

Note: Any modified show would count. Fireworks is the metric.

I think that is a really good date to pick so makes this a little hard, especially with Fireworks being the metric - as others have said we could have the Harmonius fountains on with lights, but that wouldn't count.

I really want to say before, but I will say After - but it could be July 4th. If it is before I won't be much before, so will say After

 

[Missingmypooh]

Topic 10: The Return of Nighttime Spectaculars at Epcot
Will we see Epcot Forever or Harmonious Before/After 7/3/2021?

Note: Any modified show would count. Fireworks is the metric.

before.
Especially if they leave lights on to keep track of groups and spacing, and maybe only do week day offerings (no weekends).
One of the biggest complaints is no fireworks, so if they could add it back at the most optimal park, at least a few nights per week, that could be a great incentive for people to travel in May and June.
And let’s be honest, everyone is used to seeing the floor signage for parades/calvalades (sp?) along world showcase, so logistically, with lights left on, it shouldn’t be hard to maintain spacing.

 

[umichigan10]

I’ll say before. Barring something catastrophic, like the new variants not being affected by the vaccine, I think Disney will try and get some of the night shows going in some capacity by the beginning of the summer season. Hoping HEA is going when I go in June, and I’d imagine they really wanna get Harmonious up and running given the money they’ve sunk into it.

 

[hertamaniac]

Space 220 before vote here. And being more specific, I lean towards after 9.1.21.

 

[hertamaniac]

Topic 10: The Return of Nighttime Spectaculars at Epcot
Will we see Epcot Forever or Harmonious Before/After 7/3/2021?

Note: Any modified show would count. Fireworks is the metric.

After. But this is one topic where I wouldn't drop a penny as a bet. I have no confidence in my vote.

 

[dlavender]

I’m going with before. They will have something. Most likely modified like everything else. But that’s a good point someone made about having more than one park having a show due to hopping.

 

[AvidDisReader]

This is a good question. I can see this going either way. While I believe the Vaccines are rolling out as good as could be expected. That being said, I feel Disney is going to take a conservative approach. Therefore, I am going to say Epcot nighttime shows will be after 7/3. Disney, in my opinion, just will not want to open itself to media and social media negative publicity.

 

[huskies90]

So, I think the target should be mid May to get back to full operations with possibly the mask mandate in place, but ask that all guests provide proof of vaccination.

Great analysis. The vaccines are a great start but even with them, we still have a long way to go. Cancelations, modifications, closures, social distancing and masks will continue until the virus is at least contained. As numbers improve, Disney will continue to slowly open things up with modifications, offer more/newer experiences and increase capacity over the Summer and into the Fall. But to think they are going back to full operations just because 1/3 of the country has been vaccinated is overly optimistic.