The Poly2 Pricing Thread

[Paul Stupin]

Our friends over at the DVC Show spent some time this week talking about the likelihood, in their opinion, that Poly2 will be in the same association as Poly1. In my opinion, they’re wrong, but I think it’s a mistake for them to express that kind of confidence, especially if it winds up encouraging more Poly 1 buyers in the short term, thinking that they’ll probably be able to use their resale points to book Poly2. Maybe, but maybe not! They blame the Riviera’s slow sales on its restricted points, which is highly debatable.

Anyway, the show these days is really good, and all the new personalities and discussions they’ve initiated in this new era are working really well. It keeps getting better and better.

 

[intamin]

Our friends over at the DVC Show spent some time this week talking about the likelihood, in their opinion, that Poly2 will be in the same association as Poly1. In my opinion, they’re wrong, but I think it’s a mistake for them to express that kind of confidence, especially if it winds up encouraging more Poly 1 buyers in the short term, thinking that they’ll probably be able to use their resale points to book Poly2. Maybe, but maybe not! They blame the Riviera’s slow sales on its restricted points, which is highly debatable.

Anyway, the show these days is really good, and all the new personalities and discussions they’ve initiated in this new era are working really well. It keeps getting better and better.

The real answer is nobody knows except for DVC execs and the bus drivers what's happening regarding Poly association. I just hope people don't buy resale with the expectation of staying in the tower as a result. I hope they formally announce their decision during the condo association meeting in a couple weeks finally.

 

[Paul Stupin]

The real answer is nobody knows except for DVC execs and the bus drivers what's happening regarding Poly association. I just hope people don't buy resale with the expectation of staying in the tower as a result. I hope they formally announce their decision during the condo association meeting in a couple weeks finally.

Agreed! And if people buy resale thinking they can book the tower after listening to the podcast, they might have some unhappy customers on their hands.

 

[BWV Dreamin]

Our friends over at the DVC Show spent some time this week talking about the likelihood, in their opinion, that Poly2 will be in the same association as Poly1. In my opinion, they’re wrong, but I think it’s a mistake for them to express that kind of confidence, especially if it winds up encouraging more Poly 1 buyers in the short term, thinking that they’ll probably be able to use their resale points to book Poly2. Maybe, but maybe not! They blame the Riviera’s slow sales on its restricted points, which is highly debatable.

Anyway, the show these days is really good, and all the new personalities and discussions they’ve initiated in this new era are working really well. It keeps getting better and better.

Remember, Paul bought a somewhat large Poly 1 resale contract for like $130/pt. ( he posted on the ROFR thread). He has a reason to hope it is in the same association.

 

[aka Charles]

The real answer is nobody knows except for DVC execs and the bus drivers what's happening regarding Poly association.

The rumors are that the execs are waiting for the bus drivers to finish a survey on “same or new association” before the decision is made.

I think the bus drivers are leaning towards new, so they can add another bus contract, separate from the current association.
.

 

[intamin]

Remember, Paul bought a somewhat large Poly 1 resale contract for like $130/pt. ( he posted on the ROFR thread). He has a reason to hope it is in the same association.

This was the general tone I got when I posted the Poly speculation thread. Basically everyone who already owned Poly said they think it's going to be a part of the association except for one person. Also this isn't DVC fan specific but any show with a sponsor is pretty much going to push as much sales as possible obviously. Prices are low? Buy in now before prices go up! Prices are high? Better buy now before prices keep going up! I feel for the people who bought SSR for 135 pp like a year ago just to see it drop to the 80s. I'm sure they got some value from going on at least a trip and I know the best time to buy was yesterday but oof.

 

[Genie+]

Likelihood of being different association seems very high to me. There’s a long road ahead where the benefits to DVC keep getting better if they stay the course of restrictions. RIV sales and cash bookings look healthy enough. They could offer better incentives yet they don’t. VDH is so far a similar story.

IMO there’s not reason to give up yet. Bring the Cabins@FW online with restrictions. Next is Poly. Pivot only if necessary due to something like housing bubble, 9/11 or covid. Does Poly need to be same association to sell? No.

If they have to cancel restrictions there is no do over. It’s game over. If get through the growing pains part until it normalizes, success. The move to restrictions will just be one of many changes made to DVC over the years.

 

[intamin]

Likelihood of being different association seems very high to me. There’s a long road ahead where the benefits to DVC keep getting better if they stay the course of restrictions. RIV sales and cash bookings look healthy enough. They could offer better incentives yet they don’t. VDH is so far a similar story.

IMO there’s not reason to give up yet. Bring the Cabins@FW online with restrictions. Next is Poly. Pivot only if necessary due to something like housing bubble, 9/11 or covid. Does Poly need to be same association to sell? No.

If they have to cancel restrictions there is no do over. It’s game over. If get through the growing pains part until it normalizes, success. The move to restrictions will just be one of many changes made to DVC over the years.

Agreed. If I'm DVC I'm putting resale restrictions on as many resorts ASAP. It further differentiates the product between resale and direct. The more resorts you keep putting as part of the original association, the less compelling it is for potential owners to buy direct.

 

[Jack Kerouac]

This was the general tone I got when I posted the Poly speculation thread. Basically everyone who already owned Poly said they think it's going to be a part of the association except for one person. Also this isn't DVC fan specific but any show with a sponsor is pretty much going to push as much sales as possible obviously. Prices are low? Buy in now before prices go up! Prices are high? Better buy now before prices keep going up! I feel for the people who bought SSR for 135 pp like a year ago just to see it drop to the 80s. I'm sure they got some value from going on at least a trip and I know the best time to buy was yesterday but oof.

We bought Poly resale in 2022 and I fully expect the tower to be a new association. I’m okay with it. We bought Poly for access to the monorail while our boys are young and then we plan on staying at other resorts when we need more room. While Poly prices are lower than when we bought, we saved enough on our August trip that we are still ahead.

 

[intamin]

We bought Poly resale in 2022 and I fully expect the tower to be a new association. I’m okay with it. We bought Poly for access to the monorail while our boys are young and then we plan on staying at other resorts when we need more room. While Poly prices are lower than when we bought, we saved enough on our August trip that we are still ahead.

Yeah I mean obviously it's a case by case basis depending on what you bought for and Poly didn't drop as much as AKV, SSR and BLT did compared to where they were. The high point wasn't in 2022, it was in 2021 when revenge travel was a thing so I'd expect yours to be okay, guess I should've been more specific about that.

 

[Sandisw]

Our friends over at the DVC Show spent some time this week talking about the likelihood, in their opinion, that Poly2 will be in the same association as Poly1. In my opinion, they’re wrong, but I think it’s a mistake for them to express that kind of confidence, especially if it winds up encouraging more Poly 1 buyers in the short term, thinking that they’ll probably be able to use their resale points to book Poly2. Maybe, but maybe not! They blame the Riviera’s slow sales on its restricted points, which is highly debatable.

Anyway, the show these days is really good, and all the new personalities and discussions they’ve initiated in this new era are working really well. It keeps getting better and better.

I have not seen it but someone mentioned that one reason they believe it will be the same is that they had done nothing to get approval to sell it as new to other states, etc.

Was that part of it? If so, did they address whether all that was being done for yet for FW? Because it would be in the works since we know now that will open first.

I do agree that it is risky to come out and be so confident when there is nothing official yet.

 

[intamin]

I have not seen it but someone mentioned that one reason they believe it will be the same is that they had done nothing to get approval to sell it as new to other states, etc.

Was that part of it? If so, did they addresswhether they addressed whether all that was being done for FW already? Because it would be in the works since we know now that will open first.

I do agree that it is risky to come out and be so confident when there is nothing official yet.

Derek talked about that and said it was a lot more expensive to get approval to sell it as a new association to other states which is why he thinks it's the same association but I don't think they said anything about the timeline for it happening for FW

 

[Sandisw]

Derek talked about that and said it was a lot more expensive to get approval to sell it as a new association to other states which is why he thinks it's the same association but I don't think they said anything about the timeline for it happening for FW

Thanks. To me, if they haven’t already started that process with FW, then it not being done yet for Poly isn’t a big deal.

I guess I don’t get the point about being more expensive….any new resort would go through it so can see them using that as a reason.

As I said, they still need approval regardless.

But, I am with you…really hoping we get info in two weeks!!

 

[Jack Kerouac]

Yeah I mean obviously it's a case by case basis depending on what you bought for and Poly didn't drop as much as AKV, SSR and BLT did compared to where they were. The high point wasn't in 2022, it was in 2021 when revenge travel was a thing so I'd expect yours to be okay, guess I should've been more specific about that.

No worries. I didn’t take any offense to your post. And I know prices spiked a year earlier and we were likely buying at a price point that would become cheaper. We bought in at $149 a point. That was about $15 less than the average contract at the time. So yeah, we could have saved money by waiting, but by buying then and using the points, we saved about $9,000 versus rack on our 2023 trip.

But I did tell my wife recently that I wonder if we should have bought SSR. I think we will need more room than the 447 square foot studios sooner than we thought.

However, we always stay LV at Poly and plan on at least a few nights there each stay. So the 11-month booking window is helpful when we book that part of the stay.

 

[AstroBlasters]

Derek talked about that and said it was a lot more expensive to get approval to sell it as a new association to other states which is why he thinks it's the same association but I don't think they said anything about the timeline for it happening for FW

They also talked about how making it the same association makes it easier to sell points to current Poly owners who want the ability to stay in villas.

 

[Jack Kerouac]

They also talked about how making it the same association makes it easier to sell points to current Poly owners who want the ability to stay in villas.

Absolutely. Taking my Poly resale points to book the new tower will be like when I told the Harvard rep my ACT score: “You’re going to need to get it up and then we can talk.”

 

[Royal Consort]

Our friends over at the DVC Show spent some time this week talking about the likelihood, in their opinion, that Poly2 will be in the same association as Poly1. In my opinion, they’re wrong, but I think it’s a mistake for them to express that kind of confidence, especially if it winds up encouraging more Poly 1 buyers in the short term, thinking that they’ll probably be able to use their resale points to book Poly2. Maybe, but maybe not! They blame the Riviera’s slow sales on its restricted points, which is highly debatable.

Agreed on all the above. I rolled my eyes that "Riviera isn't selling because of the restrictions" myth is being perpetuated by those who should have enough data to the contrary. We all have our bias. I secretly hoped the resale restrictions tanked enough sales to remove them! Maybe DVCFan could add "restrictions sinks sales" to one of their 'DVC myths' episodes.

 

[emchen]

Derek talked about that and said it was a lot more expensive to get approval to sell it as a new association to other states which is why he thinks it's the same association but I don't think they said anything about the timeline for it happening for FW

I think he used the word “astronomical”.

Thanks. To me, if they haven’t already started that process with FW, then it not being done yet for Poly isn’t a big deal.

I guess I don’t get the point about being more expensive….any new resort would go through it so can see them using that as a reason.

As I said, they still need approval regardless.

Totally agree!

They also talked about how making it the same association makes it easier to sell points to current Poly owners who want the ability to stay in villas.

They really stressed how DVD is struggling to sell out Aulani, RIV, and “sluggish sales” at VDH. I guess they haven’t heard of the “Happy with Aulani Sales” theory based on full occupancy at rack rates!

@pkrieger2287 you should really check out this thread and @intamin ‘s Poly2 speculation thread. The poll in this older thread was 2/3 to 1/3 in favor of “same association”. The poll in the newer thread flipped completely to 2/3:1/3 in favor of “separate association”.

 

[Sandisw]

Agreed on all the above. I rolled my eyes that "Riviera isn't selling because of the restrictions" myth is being perpetuated by those who should have enough data to the contrary. We all have our bias. I secretly hoped the resale restrictions tanked enough sales to remove them! Maybe DVCFan could add "restrictions sinks sales" to one of their 'DVC myths' episodes.

What it always come back to, at least for me, is that DVD has the power to remove restrictions...they were not required and certainly didn't have to be added to VDH...if they think they are a sales killer.

They also hold all the cards at pricing, and have the power to move things faster by putting in incentives that buyers can't resist...which is what happened this summer with VGF..

So, I just don't buy DVD is that concerned with them because their actions don't support it. I can't believe they didn't expect that sales would act differently with restrictions....

Not to say this means they are going to make it new, it just appears that their actions definitely seem to lead to them wanting all new resorts to be restricted from resale...and it seems that they would want it with Poly tower.

But, only they know at this point and no matter what any of us think we know, we don't....they have not shared the decision and there is a reason that is the case....they don't want people rushing to resale? Maybe. They want to announce it at the same time they give more info regarding FW that will have them to soften the blow? Maybe.

Last year, at the DVC meeting, there was a slide about it....let's see what it says this year...if it uses the same language (which seemed to imply it was part of PVB), and there is no direct answer, then I'd say its going to PVB.

 

[Sandisw]

I think he used the word “astronomical”.

Totally agree!

They really stressed how DVD is struggling to sell out Aulani, RIV, and “sluggish sales” at VDH. I guess they haven’t heard of the “Happy with Aulani Sales” theory based on full occupancy at rack rates!

@pkrieger2287 you should really check out this thread and @intamin ‘s Poly2 speculation thread. The poll in this older thread was 2/3 to 1/3 in favor of “same association”. The poll in the newer thread flipped completely to 2/3:1/3 in favor of “separate association”.

Good point about the poll. If I am DVD, and I am seeing this, I am pretty happy if its going new with restrictions. Some of the your diehard, in the know DVC owners, have flipped their expectations.

Hmmm...maybe that was part of the strategy?? LOL