The Poly2 Pricing Thread

[tidefan]

Agreed. “Boy, Disney really screwed VGF1 owners with BPK” seems to have become conventional wisdom among many, but as an original VGF1 owner who only ever books 1BR, 2BR and GVs, I still haven’t had any trouble getting what I want in the owners’ window. Maybe people wanting studios who pre-BPK would have stretched to a larger villa if a studio was unavailable are now opting for BPK instead. I’m certainly not angry at Disney due to BPK.

Prior to BPK, I could get DLX Studios fairly easily at 11 months for most of the year (of course NYE, etc, would have still required walking), however, now they are going very quickly. We have no desire to stay in the hotel rooms, so all the addition did for us was to increase competition for the rooms that we wanted at 11 months.

Back in 2013/2014, there wasn't any thought of more villas being added to the association (yes, I know it's in all the documents), so most bought based on what was available. BPK is a paradigm shift in that. Actually, knowing what I know now, I may have considered a Fixed Week, but we only planned on VGF 2 out of every 3 years...

 

[intamin]

Could DVD have the best of both worlds? Could it be the same association but just extend Poly2 to create a Poly extended like there is an extension with some OKW contracts?

So Poly1 maintains original expiration date, yet Poly2 could still have 50 years when it goes on sale

I think DVD is trying to avoid repeating their OKW blunder ever again.

 

[TheLyinKing]

I think DVD is trying to avoid repeating their OKW blunder ever again.

Yeah that is never going to happen again lol

 

[tidefan]

Yeah that is never going to happen again lol

I would wager that the words "Quit Claim" have been banished from DVD HQ...

 

[Hubalorian]

Yeah that is never going to happen again lol

This situation would be completely different than OKW, I just brought them up to showcase in theory it’s possible. Poly1 expires and goes through refurb while Poly2 is up and running without a hitch

 

[Mikey15]

This situation would be completely different than OKW, I just brought them up to showcase in theory it’s possible. Poly1 expires and goes through refurb while Poly2 is up and running without a hitch

Not a lawyer but to accomplish that, wouldn’t it make more sense to have a legally separate association but offer a priority booking window for PVB owners specifically?

How does Kidani and Jambo work? Are they both one association just different booking categories?

 

[Sandisw]

Could DVD have the best of both worlds? Could it be the same association but just extend Poly2 to create a Poly extended like there is an extension with some OKW contracts?

So Poly1 maintains original expiration date, yet Poly2 could still have 50 years when it goes on sale

If the Poly tower is the same association, then the ground lease has to be the same as PVB.

So, they would be giving PVB owners a free extra 10 years and that is not going to happen

 

[Sandisw]

Not a lawyer but to accomplish that, wouldn’t it make more sense to have a legally separate association but offer a priority booking window for PVB owners specifically?

How does Kidani and Jambo work? Are they both one association just different booking categories?

AKV is all the same condo association. Just different buildings and when you book you know which one you are choosing.

They can not make Poly tower a new association and then give PVB owners the same booking window.

Owners at a resort must be given at least one month advantage. Since we currently all enjoy a 4 month advantage, I don’t see them changing that for the Poly tower owners.

For trades, Poly tower…if new..can enter BVTC with its own rules for trading with the other resorts, like VDH and RIV have, but I do not think they would enter and have a separate trading agreement with PVB thst is different than the other resorts…

 

[TheDailyMoo]

I'm having a hard time believing that DVD would willingly allow my AKV resale points to even get a sniff of the new Poly tower at 7 months. I just don't see how or why they would allow that by making it part of the old association. Would love the opportunity to book the tower at 7 months (although I think 7 month availability will mirror that of BW and BC). Just don't see happening.

 

[GoingSince1990]

I'm having a hard time believing that DVD would willingly allow my AKV resale points to even get a sniff of the new Poly tower at 7 months. I just don't see how or why they would allow that by making it part of the old association. Would love the opportunity to book the tower at 7 months (although I think 7 month availability will mirror that of BW and BC). Just don't see happening.

All resale owners who bought before 2019 will definitely have access to the new tower at 7 months. I wonder what the percentage of existing resale points are post-2019 ones.

 

[HyperspaceMountainPilot]

All resale owners who bought before 2019 will definitely have access to the new tower at 7 months. I wonder what the percentage of existing resale points are post-2019 ones.

So all resale prior to 2019 is treated on par with DVC direct points? I also would be curious to know what fraction of current owners are direct, resale pre-2019, resale post 2019 at unrestricted resorts, and resale at RIV (I assume we are still at/near zero resale VDH at this point). It doesn’t seem like it’s that much easier to get bookings at RIV than the other resorts at <7mo, so I would think the percentage of us with post-2019 resale can’t be that huge.

 

[thelionqueen]

This doesn't make much sense. Obviously, as time goes on and RIV finally sells out, its future contract expiration will come into play in terms of resale pricing.

Just as BCV and BWV's resale values will begin to decline—likely sharply the last 10 years or so.

I disagree that the resale values will decline much, especially in the last 10 years. The contract end date will make owners keep their contracts even more than they would have otherwise. The inventory will be extremely low which will drive up the cost. We all know that the longer you keep your contract, the more valuable it becomes, so why would owners at BCV sell at a lower price point if the value declines? Most own there to stay there regardless if is today or 10 years from now. Who knows what, if anything Disney may offer existing owners to repurchase a shiny new contract there? Maybe existing owners would be incentivized to buy again. I know I would, without any hesitation at all. It's fun to speculate

It is nearly impossible to stay there for any length of time unless you own there.. and that is today. It will only get harder. IMHO, if I didn't already own there, I would be clamoring to acquire a contract now, while ROFR is still sleeping, and the price is the most reasonable in a long time.

Of course no one knows what is to come, but 19 years is still a very long time. I don't see the desire to stay there changing. And with the many new resorts and new members coming, it will only be more competitive until the very last day. Of course I am biased, but that is my my .02.

 

[Sandisw]

So all resale prior to 2019 is treated on par with DVC direct points? I also would be curious to know what fraction of current owners are direct, resale pre-2019, resale post 2019 at unrestricted resorts, and resale at RIV (I assume we are still at/near zero resale VDH at this point). It doesn’t seem like it’s that much easier to get bookings at RIV than the other resorts at <7mo, so I would think the percentage of us with post-2019 resale can’t be that huge.

We have direct points, resale RIV, and pre 2019 SSR points which are good everywhere

So, yes, all points about prior to January 2019 can still be used at all the resorts…but all contract bought resale since then are excluded.

And, I think it’s a good amount of points that sell yearly resale, all which are coming out of the pool to book.

 

[Sandisw]

I disagree that the resale values will decline much, especially in the last 10 years. The contract end date will make owners keep their contracts even more than they would have otherwise. The inventory will be extremely low which will drive up the cost. We all know that the longer you keep your contract, the more valuable it becomes, so why would owners at BCV sell at a lower price point if the value declines? Most own there to stay there regardless if is today or 10 years from now. Who knows what, if anything Disney may offer existing owners to repurchase a shiny new contract there? Maybe existing owners would be incentivized to buy again. I know I would, without any hesitation at all. It's fun to speculate

It is nearly impossible to stay there for any length of time unless you own there.. and that is today. It will only get harder. IMHO, if I didn't already own there, I would be clamoring to acquire a contract now, while ROFR is still sleeping, and the price is the most reasonable in a long time.

Of course no one knows what is to come, but 19 years is still a very long time. I don't see the desire to stay there changing. And with the many new resorts and new members coming, it will only be more competitive until the very last day. Of course I am biased, but that is my my .02.

The flip side is that owners who want out in those last 10 years will sell lower just to be done, even if supply is small.

At some point, it won’t make sense for a buyer to spend too much for a BCV or BWV contract when there are other options that give them more time.

Sellers can only sell if there are buyers who find the value. And I think it’s going to be tough to find enough buyers to keep prices up.

 

[HyperspaceMountainPilot]

The flip side is that owners who want out in those last 10 years will sell lower just to be done, even if supply is small.

At some point, it won’t make sense for a buyer to spend too much for a BCV or BWV contract when there are other options that give them more time.

Sellers can only sell if there are buyers who find the value. And I think it’s going to be tough to find enough buyers to keep prices up.

I do think we’ll see lower priced transactions BCV/BWV go through with 5-10 years left here and there when some sellers are eager to unload…but you can get $25+/pt today if you use home resort advantage for popular times, so it would not surprise me if people could get $30 or more per rental point by 2035…so why would anybody sell for less than $60/point with more than a few years left on the contract unless they desperately needed the money.

As someone who is about to close on BCV (stripped of ‘23 points at $115/pt), I valued my offer with the understanding that I will hold until the contract is worth zero in 2042…and I expect to get 2x the savings (after paying dues) of the buy in cost well before 2042. However, I do think it won’t go much below $100 for at least another 10-15 years, because of how valuable it is as a rental.

 

[TheDailyMoo]

All resale owners who bought before 2019 will definitely have access to the new tower at 7 months. I wonder what the percentage of existing resale points are post-2019 ones.

Going on 5 years now I bet there's been a decent amount of turnover and that will only continue in the coming years until eventually most resale will be restricted. I honestly don't think they're interested in playing nice with Poly 1 and all restricted resale owners. It's just not Disney's MO, especially recently, to be very giving to their customers when they can easily make more the other way. Again would LOVE for a chance at the tower with my restricted points but I'm not exactly holding my breath!

 

[thelionqueen]

The flip side is that owners who want out in those last 10 years will sell lower just to be done, even if supply is small.

At some point, it won’t make sense for a buyer to spend too much for a BCV or BWV contract when there are other options that give them more time.

Sellers can only sell if there are buyers who find the value. And I think it’s going to be tough to find enough buyers to keep prices up.

Agreed that there will always be those who want/need to sell for whatever reason at any given time. But, to your point of not being enough buyers to keep prices up, I believe there won’t be enough owners stupid enough to sell low based on contract end date. Owners will still be able to rent those points at the very highest end of the rental market, up until the very last day. So, why would they consider “fire sale” pricing just because the end date looms 5-10 years out?

For example, someone owns 200 points, decided they don’t need it anymore..contract expires in 10 years. At todays rental prices, that’s easily $5,000 in return (probably more). Minus dues, $3400 net. Times 10 years, = $34,500 in net profit. So selling it for around $100-$120pp is crazy.

Of course, some won’t care to go that route & just sell..there are always those selling for various reasons with no regard to value or market. However, those that do keep the contracts will far outweigh those that don’t, leaving a supply shortage, which will increase the value of the contract for sale in the marketplace.

In short, I don’t believe that BCV & BWV’s (these 2 resorts specifically) values will decline sharply as the contract end date looms. It’ll decrease of course, but not as drastically as some are expecting. We have a good 9 more years to speculate though.. so that’s cool!

 

[tom1944]

Agreed that there will always be those who want/need to sell for whatever reason at any given time. But, to your point of not being enough buyers to keep prices up, I believe there won’t be enough owners stupid enough to sell low based on contract end date. Owners will still be able to rent those points at the very highest end of the rental market, up until the very last day. So, why would they consider “fire sale” pricing just because the end date looms 5-10 years out?

For example, someone owns 200 points, decided they don’t need it anymore..contract expires in 10 years. At todays rental prices, that’s easily $5,000 in return (probably more). Minus dues, $3400 net. Times 10 years, = $34,500 in net profit. So selling it for around $100-$120pp is crazy.

Of course, some won’t care to go that route & just sell..there are always those selling for various reasons with no regard to value or market. However, those that do keep the contracts will far outweigh those that don’t, leaving a supply shortage, which will increase the value of the contract for sale in the marketplace.

In short, I don’t believe that BCV & BWV’s (these 2 resorts specifically) values will decline sharply as the contract end date looms. It’ll decrease of course, but not as drastically as some are expecting. We have a good 9 more years to speculate though.. so that’s cool!

Some people bought BW for under $75 and once they use it for 40 years, I doubt they will be upset if they sell it for a reduced amount.

 

[thelionqueen]

Some people bought BW for under $75 and once they use it for 40 years, I doubt they will be upset if they sell it for a reduced amount.

Of course, as I mentioned,some will sell for a mydtusd of different reasons with no regard to market. But to that point, if they bought it for $75pp, and can rent it for $25-35 per point, or, the ridicules rates from Disney, would sway anyone to sell at fire sale prices.

 

[maui22]

March 2019, there were over 70,221,000 points for the resort before RIV (6.73 million), BPK (???), and VDH 3.25 million). If numbers and math are correct, there are over 80 million DVC points.

Adding 17th association Fort Wilderness Cabins (or is it Cabins at Fort Wilderness) and the Polynesian tower (same or new association) in 2024 means another 5+ million points. DVC associations will exceed approaching 85 million points next year.

I always thought more resales every year than points Disney keeps adding. However, those numbers make my head spin. I wonder if @pkrieger2287 might be able to provide perspective on whether resale may be exceeding the number of points Disney keeps adding every 2-3 years with new associations.