The free quick service dining plan going extinct?

[Madonna3]

I'm going at $13 per point. Are you telling me that you know its going to be $26 per point to rent?

I won't rent less than $16 for my GF and Poly points.

 

[dlavender]

I won't rent less than $16 for my GF and Poly points.

Those are premium locations.

Using BW I routinely see $13. Even at $15/point, 76*15 = $1140, far cry from $2000/wk.

 

[jade1]

I'm going at $13 per point. Are you telling me that you know its going to be $26 per point to rent?

No we veered off a bit. My initial reason to purchase BWV was BWI is $250 a night plus tax minimum (likely to go to $500 over 10 years), that's why a case can be made that guests are indeed borrowing money or even paying cash to purchase DVC even today. As i say I am good with renting as well.

 

[jade1]

Renting is much tighter, and I highly recommend it if you can get what you want. Kinda why we often grab S&D for location if we can't get the days we want at BCV/BWV.

 

[dlavender]

No we veered off a bit. My initial reason to purchase BWV was BWI is $250 a night plus tax minimum (likely to go to $500 over 10 years), that's why a case can be made that guests are indeed borrowing money or even paying cash to purchase DVC even today. As i say I am good with renting as well.

That's the part of timeshare pitches I don't put any stock in.

I'm never paying $500/night for any WDW hotel (maybe a night inside the castle).

So I'm not going to buy in to insulate me from a price that I'd never pay to begin with.

You like DVC. Great. A million people do. I'm contending that an overstated rack rate is not a good thing.

You took us down some rabbit hole about how DVC can double your money. I showed that to be complete non sense.

Again, overstated rack rates are getting so overstated I think they are approaching the peak. Maybe I'm wrong?

But going on about how a DVC rate 5 years ago somehow justifies it is pretty flawed logic. IMO.

 

[Madonna3]

That's the part of timeshare pitches I don't put any stock in.

I'm never paying $500/night for any WDW hotel (maybe a night inside the castle).

So I'm not going to buy in to insulate me from a price that I'd never pay to begin with.

You like DVC. Great. A million people do. I'm contending that an overstated rack rate is not a good thing.

You took us down some rabbit hole about how DVC can double your money. I showed that to be complete non sense.

Again, overstated rack rates are getting so overstated I think they are approaching the peak. Maybe I'm wrong?

But going on about how a DVC rate 5 years ago somehow justifies it is pretty flawed logic. IMO.

Omg. All of this. FACT.

 

[jade1]

Ok well lets look at renting.

$7,600 gets you $13,000 in 10 years, and you paid $10,000 in points rental. So your $7,600 is now worth $3,000 but you got 10 years at BWV.

$7,600 gets me BWV and I pay $5,000 in dues, and then invest $5,000 at 8%. So I have $6,500 but paid $5,000 in dues. Net $1,500 plus BWV.

So I am down $1,500 to you, but have 76 BWV points. They would need to have fallen from $100 per point, to $19 a point to break even. If it stays at $100, I am at $9,100 and your at $3,000.

 

[jade1]

That's the part of timeshare pitches I don't put any stock in.

I'm never paying $500/night for any WDW hotel (maybe a night inside the castle).

So I'm not going to buy in to insulate me from a price that I'd never pay to begin with.

You like DVC. Great. A million people do. I'm contending that an overstated rack rate is not a good thing.

You took us down some rabbit hole about how DVC can double your money. I showed that to be complete non sense.

Again, overstated rack rates are getting so overstated I think they are approaching the peak. Maybe I'm wrong?

But going on about how a DVC rate 5 years ago somehow justifies it is pretty flawed logic. IMO.

That's what you came up from all of that? Well avoid the $500 and concentrate on the $250 a night. Why jump on one "possible" scenario? That was just to show DVC is also a hedge against inflation-seems obvious and quite elementary.

Doubling DVC is a fact. Go look up what BCV sold at, then compare $140 currently. There is also info on BWV being in the $50's just a few years ago and its now $100,

 

[jade1]

Here's some from 2013:

gaylem -- 300 BWV (Aug), $50, 69 banked 11 pts, 178 12 pts, all 13 pts, buyer pays closing & mf (sub 8/7, passed 9/5)

MDdriver --- 200 BWV (???), $50, all '13 and '14 pts , buyer pays mf & closing (sub 12/26, passed 1/22)

stacyhug---150 BWV (Apr), $55, 105 '13 points, all 14 pts, buyer pays closing, admin fee & 1/2 mf (sub 2/28, passed 3/26)

 

[Madonna3]

Here's some from 2013:

gaylem -- 300 BWV (Aug), $50, 69 banked 11 pts, 178 12 pts, all 13 pts, buyer pays closing & mf (sub 8/7, passed 9/5)

MDdriver --- 200 BWV (???), $50, all '13 and '14 pts , buyer pays mf & closing (sub 12/26, passed 1/22)

stacyhug---150 BWV (Apr), $55, 105 '13 points, all 14 pts, buyer pays closing, admin fee & 1/2 mf (sub 2/28, passed 3/26)

I'm curious, what was their buy in?

I have the most expensive points to date (I think) and I can't turn around and sell them for $200. Or can I?

 

[dlavender]

Ok well lets look at renting.

$7,600 gets you $13,000 in 10 years, and you paid $10,000 in points rental. So your $7,600 is now worth $3,000 but you got 10 years at BWV.

$7,600 gets me BWV and I pay $5,000 in dues, and then invest $5,000 at 8%. So I have $6,500 but paid $5,000 in dues. Net $1,500 plus BWV.

So I am down $1,500 to you, but have 76 BWV points. They would need to have fallen from $100 per point, to $19 a point to break even. If it stays at $100, I am at $9,100 and your at $3,000.

So in 10 years, the year 2027, with only 17 years remaining, do you still think it will sell for $100/point?

Your example contains some errors.

$7600 gives me $13000 at 8% in 10 years, correct.

If you outley $7600, then pay $5,000 in 10 years that's $12,600. Where are you getting another $5k to play with?! Can't start pumping more money into your example to make it look better. Now you are at $17600 when the first example started with $7600. You've got $10k more into it than the renter. In 10 years you have paid $12,600 compared with $7600 in your example. You are down $5k. So in 10 years you have gained nothing. You have the rights to BMI, but you don't have money to invest. So you've paid $12600 for 10 years and the renter has paid $7600 in your example.

So they've paid $7600, and have $3000 in the bank.

You've paid $12,600, and have nothing in the bank, but you hold the title for resale.

You need to make $8000 or $80 per point on a contract with 17 years remaining on it to break even with the renter.

 

[jade1]

I'm curious, what was their buy in?

I have the most expensive points to date (I think) and I can't turn around and sell them for $200. Or can I?

Those are what they paid and passed ROFR. $50 a point for the first one, $50 a point for the 2nd one and $55 a point for the 3rd one-all in 2013-black and white.

 

[dlavender]

Why are we bringing up sales from 5 years ago from random people on the internet?

Are they buying today? Are those prices doubling from where they are now?

I'm contending no. The prices are most likely not going to double. That ship has sailed.

But again, maybe your right. Perhaps BW goes for $200 as time is approaching for the contract to end.

I just wouldn't bet on that horse.

ETA:

That would be like me bringing up someone who bought Apple stock in 1995. Got a crazy return. Should I use that as the basis for what we should expect as a return on investment?

 

[jade1]

So in 10 years, the year 2027, with only 17 years remaining, do you still think it will sell for $100/point?

Again, it would have to be $19 to be the same. You think it will be $19?

Your example contains some errors.

$7600 gives me $13000 at 8% in 10 years, correct.

If you outley $7600, then pay $5,000 in 10 years that's $12,600. Where are you getting another $5k to play with?! Can't start pumping more money into your example to make it look better. Now you are at $17600 when the first example started with $7600. You've got $10k more into it than the renter. In 10 years you have paid $12,600 compared with $7600 in your example. You are down $5k. So in 10 years you have gained nothing. You have the rights to BMI, but you don't have money to invest. So you've paid $12600 for 10 years and the renter has paid $7600 in your example.

So they've paid $7600, and have $3000 in the bank.

You've paid $12,600, and have nothing in the bank, but you hold the title for resale.

You need to make $8000 or $80 per point on a contract with 17 years remaining on it to break even with the renter.

I buy a contract for $7,600. Now my week vacation is $500 (dues).

You put $7,600 in the bank. Now your week vacation is $1,000 (points rental).

That means to keep things equal-I can invest $500 each year I didn't have to come up with for renting points instead.

In 10 years you paid $10K in rent.

In 10 years I paid $5K in dues and invested the other $5K that I saved- into the bank.

 

[dlavender]

Again, it would have to be $19 to be the same. You think it will be $19?



I buy a contract for $7,600. Now my week vacation is $500 (dues).

You put $7,600 in the bank. Now your week vacation is $1,000 (points rental).

That means to keep things equal-I can invest $500 each year I didn't have to come up with for renting points instead.

In 10 years you paid $10K in rent.

In 10 years I paid $5K in dues and invested the other $5K that I saved- into the bank.

But you can't forget about the $7600 you paid. That wasn't monopoly money. You haven't saved anything. You paid $7600 to save $5000.

And my $7600 is getting interest, which is compounding.

Yours isn't.

 

[jade1]

Why are we bringing up sales from 5 years ago from random people on the internet?

Are they buying today? Are those prices doubling from where they are now?

I'm contending no. The prices are most likely not going to double. That ship has sailed.

But again, maybe your right. Perhaps BW goes for $200 as time is approaching for the contract to end.

I just wouldn't bet on that horse.

ETA:

That would be like me bringing up someone who bought Apple stock in 1995. Got a crazy return. Should I use that as the basis for what we should expect as a return on investment?

Please point out where I said you can buy today and double your return on DVC?

I said I have-that I can point out, as have these folks above.

 

[dlavender]

I understand where the confusion is.

I was going off your example of $7600 being $13k in 10 years. Then from that point the renter buys 10 years worth of vacation at one time.

I'll make the simple point that there is a cash flow advantage of initially investing $7600 and paying out $1,000 annually vs. Putting $7600 down and paying $500 annually.

I think that sums it up nicely.

 

[dlavender]

Please point out where I said you can buy today and double your return on DVC?

I said I have-that I can point out, as have these folks above.

I was highlighting that overstated rack rates are reaching the top. And that I disliked the $600, now only $450! approach to disney pricing.

You joined in talking about how it has doubled DVC prices, and that's a good thing.

I am then saying DVC isn't doubling anymore. And here we are....

 

[jade1]

I was highlighting that overstated rack rates are reaching the top. And that I disliked the $600, now only $450! approach to disney pricing.

You joined in talking about how it has doubled DVC prices, and that's a good thing.

I am then saying DVC isn't doubling anymore. And here we are....

Agreed. Yea I remember you saying "I'm glad you like your DVC" when I mentioned the good luck of it.

But yea if I knew you could still easily buy today and double again-the whole world would also know that.

 

[dlavender]

Agreed. Yea I remember you saying "I'm glad you like your DVC" when I mentioned the good luck of it.

But yea if I knew you could still easily buy today and double again-the whole world would also know that.

We certainly went down the rabbit hole, didn't we? lol

If it were 5-10 years ago, I wish someone would have made me buy DVC. But here we are, at the top of the mountain (maybe).