The Dreaded 2042

[ClaraOswald]

Thanks all. I'll maybe keep it in the back of my mind that our last BRV trip should be January 2040 with borrowed points to play it safe.

It will be a sad day! We likely won't purchase any new points if they were to open BRV back up as DVC.

 

[juliebee]

I imagine that December 2041 and January 2042 will be BONKERS for trying to get a reservation. People wanting to be there for the last Christmas season under their contract or the last month of the entire contract. Expect extreme walking. It may be rather difficult to get into any resorts from about 2040 as banking forward won't really be an option for 2042 resort owners. I hope they come up with a good plan on how to handle that.

 

[CarolynFH]

I just want to use the last of my points to book BWV for the end of January 2042, so that when I wake up on checkout morning, I’m not an owner anymore. Hopefully my last night of ownership will be January 31, and February 1 will be checkout day. Unfortunately, I’m old enough that it’s possible I’ll expire before my ownership does.

 

[juliebee]

I just want to use the last of my points to book BWV for the end of January 2042, so that when I wake up on checkout morning, I’m not an owner anymore. Hopefully my last night of ownership will be January 31, and February 1 will be checkout day. Unfortunately, I’m old enough that it’s possible I’ll expire before my ownership does.

That would be my goal too and Jan 31 is actually my husband's birthday, so that would be extra cool. But I think it's going to be cutthroat getting that reservation so I think I'll let others roll the dice to see if they get it.

 

[CaliforniaDreaming]

With a December use year, do we even get points on Dec 1, 2041 or is Dec 1, 2040 the last points allotment?

 

[juliebee]

With a December use year, do we even get points on Dec 1, 2041 or is Dec 1, 2040 the last points allotment?

I think they have to be given to December Use Year owners, which I am. The contract does not end until 1/31/2042 and we have a right to the Dec 2041 points. Admittedly we are at a real disadvantage with a December use year in this situation, so borrowing is my plan.

 

[MICKIMINI]

With a December use year, do we even get points on Dec 1, 2041 or is Dec 1, 2040 the last points allotment?

Prorated points with prorated MF's? In 1996, DH, son and I laughed when we were buying....2042 was just too far on the horizon to even contemplate! It is coming sooner than we thought!

 

[CaliforniaDreaming]

Prorated points with prorated MF's? In 1996, DH, son and I laughed when we were buying....2042 was just too far on the horizon to even contemplate! It is coming sooner than we thought!

Right?! It has been about 20 years since purchasing but for some reason I recall something about not getting 2041 points, but Dec 2040. But admittedly I can’t find any of the documentation right now to confirm. It seemed like a long way off!

 

[Disney.dad]

I think they sell a step down product at Old Key west that has until 2057 on it at Old Key West. I also think it will have very high dues at that point hurting the value but they will try and get sold so as to not have all those rooms to do cash. Something happens to be being sold between and/or both Yacht and Beach Club whether converting some of existing or DVC to sell or building a tower. Adding a 50 year product onto a 40 year old build may be stretching the reasonable useful life but they might offer a shorter new contract like 35 years-40 years maybe. Dues vs cash price at Vero and Hilton Head are hard to see how they continue in the system past that point. Probably get sold off and eventually replaced with higher density units on the property by someone else. I think we are moving into an era where Disney isn’t afraid to be simultaneously selling 5 or 6 resorts at once.

 

[Tatebeck]

If they are hurting for cash sometime between now and 2042 I could see them trying extensions at the other WDW resorts, but they would have to do it a different way. Something that doesn't require quit claim deeds from non extending members. Maybe earmarking part of the resort for extensions/renewals, changing the renewing contracts to those units starting post 2042, then demoing for a tower or something at the other non extending units.

HHI and VB are more likely to be closed instead of refreshed and reopened IMO, unless they are deemed to still be profitable and desirable. They could reopen them as a courtesy, but not sell new contracts and just have them as an option for DVC members to trade into from their WDW and DL resorts

If they are sure that they want to refresh and reopen them, and find a different way to offer an extension at BCV, BWV, and BRV, they would be getting money now for something promised in the future, which is kind of what DVC is about.

However if they aren't hurting for cash, they would know that they can resell most of those locations at top dollar point prices and raise the point charts, so I don't see them attempting it unless they develop a need for fast cash.

 

[Lumpy1106]

Wouldn't they do a "reverse declaration" for OKV? IOW, when they open a DVC resort, they only declare the % of the units available = the points that have been sold. You don't get run of the place with unlimited availability on day 1.
So...
With OKV, if say 20% of the contracts are extended to 2057, they'd just take 80% of the units out of inventory. Say there are 10 buildings at OKV, they could technically just tear down 8 of those buildings in 2042.

Amiright?

 

[Tatebeck]

Wouldn't they do a "reverse declaration" for OKV? IOW, when they open a DVC resort, they only declare the % of the units available = the points that have been sold. You don't get run of the place with unlimited availability on day 1.
So...
With OKV, if say 20% of the contracts are extended to 2057, they'd just take 80% of the units out of inventory. Say there are 10 buildings at OKV, they could technically just tear down 8 of those buildings in 2042.

Amiright?

It depends on how they extended. If they already extended the owners exact deeds after 2042 with the same "unit" guaranteed then I don't think they can just tear down any unit. They would only be able to tear down units where nobody extended. I think a single extension in a unit may prevent it from being torn down depending on how the extensions were worded.

 

[CarolynFH]

It depends on how they extended. If they already extended the owners exact deeds after 2042 with the same "unit" guaranteed then I don't think they can just tear down any unit. They would only be able to tear down units where nobody extended. I think a single extension in a unit may prevent it from being torn down depending on how the extensions were worded.

I believe the OKW extensions did just that - extended the life of each contract without changing anything else. So I doubt that ownership of any building is all extended or none extended. Instead it’s piecemeal, with a percentage reverting to DVD in 2042 and the remaining percentage belonging to others until 2057.

@Lumpy1106 that means Disney can’t tear down a building in 2042 if part of it is owned by other people until 2057, unless they modify those contracts in some way.

 

[Lumpy1106]

I believe the OKW extensions did just that - extended the life of each contract without changing anything else. So I doubt that ownership of any building is all extended or none extended. Instead it’s piecemeal, with a percentage reverting to DVD in 2042 and the remaining percentage belonging to others until 2057.

@Lumpy1106 that means Disney can’t tear down a building in 2042 if part of it is owned by other people until 2057, unless they modify those contracts in some way.

I did say "technically". They will definitely take "points" out of inventory. Could be they'll rent them out cash, or convert to CM housing (wouldn't that be nice?), or whatever. Point is, there won't suddenly be a glut of OKW rooms available to the remaining owners. I think we can agree on that.

 

[Tatebeck]

I did say "technically". They will definitely take "points" out of inventory. Could be they'll rent them out cash, or convert to CM housing (wouldn't that be nice?), or whatever. Point is, there won't suddenly be a glut of OKW rooms available to the remaining owners. I think we can agree on that.

I don't know if we can even agree on that. Declarations are made as units. So if part of a unit has been extended, it is very possible that the entire unit is stuck as declared inventory for the entire extension. As far as I know they cannot undeclare a unit if part of it has sold or undeclare part of a unit, or split a unit into smaller units after the fact.

 

[Lumpy1106]

I don't know if we can even agree on that. Declarations are made as units. So if part of a unit has been extended, it is very possible that the entire unit is stuck as declared inventory for the entire extension. As far as I know they cannot undeclare a unit if part of it has sold or undeclare part of a unit, or split a unit into smaller units after the fact.

So you're saying that if you got enough points for 1 week in a particular unit each year, and you're the only person to opt for the extension in that particular unit, they'd have to keep that unit, "DVC only" for the entire year after 2042? That would make it your own private unit, that you could only use 1 week out of the year. It would have to sit empty the rest of the year.

I have no idea if that is true or not, but I have to believe Disney lawyers have always been a little slicker than that.

 

[Brian Noble]

That would make it your own private unit, that you could only use 1 week out of the year. It would have to sit empty the rest of the year.

I don't think so. Instead, the reservation rights represented by the other points that are backed by that unit would revert to the developer, to use as they so choose.

 

[Tatebeck]

So you're saying that if you got enough points for 1 week in a particular unit each year, and you're the only person to opt for the extension in that particular unit, they'd have to keep that unit, "DVC only" for the entire year after 2042? That would make it your own private unit, that you could only use 1 week out of the year. It would have to sit empty the rest of the year.

I have no idea if that is true or not, but I have to believe Disney lawyers have always been a little slicker than that.

You would still only be able to book a room using your points and it would not become your private unit.

Like @Brian Noble said, Disney/DVC will own all of the other points in the units once it reverts, and I assume they could book rooms with their points themselves to rent out, offer it up to their swap partner like Interval International, etc. They would not just let it sit empty the majority of the year.

 

[Sandisw]

Wouldn't they do a "reverse declaration" for OKV? IOW, when they open a DVC resort, they only declare the % of the units available = the points that have been sold. You don't get run of the place with unlimited availability on day 1.
So...
With OKV, if say 20% of the contracts are extended to 2057, they'd just take 80% of the units out of inventory. Say there are 10 buildings at OKV, they could technically just tear down 8 of those buildings in 2042.

Amiright?

It would require owners of those units to agree to a new unit.

That’s the messy part. If I am extended to 2057 in Unit 2 and you are not, but also deeded to Unit 2x they can’t tear down Unit 2 as long as I am still an owner of that unit.

They certainly can put DVC owners in any building for stays, but they can’t remodel units still part of the association if there are any owners still attached to it.

Would that be an easy move? No idea. My guess is they will just increase cash deals for them.

Just like today…they came out with a 35% discount for DCL guests to book SSR or OKW studios or 1 bedrooms for a pre or post cruise stay.