The best kind of crowd update!

[DizneyMommy]

I just got an update email from Touring Plans and was thinking the worst, if they move my PPO ADR day hours I’m not going to be a happy camper... but no, crowd levels went down in the parks almost every day of my trip! Woo hoo! I don’t know how they predict that but I will take it, a girl can dream!

 

[JenniferFolsomCa]

Which dates?

 

[Amelia :)]

Not to be a negative Nancy, but take it all with a pinch of salt

 

[chicagoshannon]

I just got an alert that some days went up some down for mine. A couple of weeks ago they all went up so...

 

[SaintsManiac]

Ours went up and down, too. I don’t put much stock in it.

 

[MDH]

yeah, I know that feeling, but do stay grounded. We were there in January and Touring plans predictions weren't just off, they were off the richter scale. If you feel like being depressed, go check the "how we did" sections for the days of January 25th till like Feb 3rd. Plenty of times when they predicted 2's or 3's at parks and they were actually 7's or 8's. It was very dissapointing, and I've decided going forward to not really put much weight in these "predictions".

 

[soniam]

yeah, I know that feeling, but do stay grounded. We were there in January and Touring plans predictions weren't just off, they were off the richter scale. If you feel like being depressed, go check the "how we did" sections for the days of January 25th till like Feb 3rd. Plenty of times when they predicted 2's or 3's at parks and they were actually 7's or 8's. It was very dissapointing, and I've decided going forward to not really put much weight in these "predictions".

They have addressed what they think happened with January and February. Crowds were up some compared to the same time last year; however, the wait times were off the chart considering the number of people actually at the parks. They think that Disney actually reduced staffing and capacity by a lot during those months. I believe there's an article on their site. This was something that TP had no way of predicting. We went in March, which was a very busy time, but their predictions were about right. I wouldn't completely blow them off. Over the 6 years we have been using them, they have been right more often than wrong. With the news that WDW is going to ramp up hiring for Summer, hopefully, this means that they won't be trying to pull this stunt soon.

Also, if they only adjust the crowd level by +/- 1, then that's not really statistically significant. Most people would never know the difference without the actual numerical analysis.

 

[Shanti]

I can't recommend putting any stock in crowd predictions. The WDW crowd patterns are in such a state of flux that they're just guesses at this point.

 

[StageTek]

This is my DISNEY vacation and I will not stay grounded!

I got the same TP notice that most of my dates have gone down- September 13 to 20

 

[bethbuchall]

I got notice that most of my dates have gone up. But there's nothing I can do about the dates we need to go, so we're just going to practice patience.

 

[disneyfreak202]

I just got the notice my days went up. A few of the days are at a 9 or 10 for a few parks. Should be interesting.

 

[DizneyMommy]

YOU GUYS!!! Read the last line of my original post ;-) My whole point was I was afraid they ruined my PPO but all they did was lower crowd expectations. I get it!

 

[Jadyreen1282]

Not to be a negative Nancy, but take it all with a pinch of salt

Agree. A spoon of salt sometimes.

 

[Soldier's*Sweeties]

I got the same email. It's hard not to at least do a little happy dance. I found them to be fairly accurate last year, so I'm hoping our luck will be the same next month. I think the fact that we'll be there the week BEFORE TS Land opening has something to do with it. People might be waiting for that to take their trips.

IDK... Either way any correspondence I receive about our trip makes my day so I don't even care if it's 100% wrong!

 

[closetmickey]

Is it still possible to view a partial crowd calendar without a subscription?

 

[focusondisney]

They have addressed what they think happened with January and February. Crowds were up some compared to the same time last year; however, the wait times were off the chart considering the number of people actually at the parks. They think that Disney actually reduced staffing and capacity by a lot during those months. I believe there's an article on their site. This was something that TP had no way of predicting.

I was there the last week in January too. I’m not really buying that explanation either. The parks were very busy & not just because Disney was not staffed appropriately. We stayed at POR. The resort was full. The food court was MOBBED every morning. As in, walk around worth your food tray & look for a table mobbed. I have stayed there in August several times & it was never that busy. We were in the food court anywhere from 8 - 10 am & it was the same no matter what time we were there.

I don’t know how they can say wait times were not related to number of people in the parks unless they stationed someone at the gate to count heads. The parks were full of people! Even the Carousel of Progress was crowded. More crowded than I have seen in any trip before. And we have been going to WDW for 25 years, often making 2, 3 or 4 trips a year.

I also think people are changing their vacation habits. There were no reported school breaks that week, but POR was filled with families with school aged kids. There were also no sports competitions or apparent tour groups there either. Disney has done a good job of spreading crowds out. Low crowds are few & far between. There doesn’t seem to be much need for crowd calendars any more actually. Just plan for busy, busier & busiest & you’ll be about right!

 

[Cotillard]

I just got the notice my days went up. A few of the days are at a 9 or 10 for a few parks. Should be interesting.

Same here. Going first of June - Epcot went up to a 9 for June 4

 

[jhoannam]

I was there the last week in January too. I’m not really buying that explanation either. The parks were very busy & not just because Disney was not staffed appropriately. We stayed at POR. The resort was full. The food court was MOBBED every morning. As in, walk around worth your food tray & look for a table mobbed. I have stayed there in August several tones & it was never that busy. We were in the food court anywhere from 8 - 10 am & it was the same no matter what time we were there.

I din’t Know how they can say wait times were not related to number of people in the parks unless they stationed someone at the gate to count heads. The parks were full of people! Even the Carousel of Progress was crowded. More crowded than I have seen in any trip before. And we have been going to WDW for 25 years, often making 2, 3 or 4 trips a year.

I also think people are changing their vacation habits. There were no reported school breaks that week, but POR was filled with families with school aged kids. There were also no sports competitions or apparent tour groups there either. Disney has done a good job of spreading crowds out. Low cross are few & far between. There doen’t seem to be much need for crowd calendars any more actually. Just for busy, busier & busiest & you’ll be about right!

Now that crowd calendars are at our fingertips more and more people are using them to plan their vacations and don’t care if their kids miss a few days of school. I know lots of people I work with will take their kids out of school for 5 days this year. And lots of kids at my kids’ school have missed school to go on vacation.

 

[LVSWL]

In my most recent TP email some of the numbers were higher. Disappointing..yes, but we have been many times and are used to working around the crowds. We don't tend to go to early EMH so we already are choosing a park that will probably be less crowded. I do tend to take the Crowd Calendar with a small grain of salt. I know it will change, usually go higher. The thing I like is that the CC seems to have the estimated hours and EMH & parties all in one place sooner so that the OCD planner in me can start to think about where we want to go and when and where we want to eat.

 

[MNDisneyMommy]

Our trip just got bumped up to a 10 day. Yikes. I knew it would be busy that week of November but not sure I am prepared for that.

The biggest thing tripping me up is that they keep moving DHS says - before it had Thursday as the best day and now it's Wednesday. We do ADRs in a week and I need to figure out if I'll be in different parks or what...

I have to say - they have usually been pretty good about which parks are busy. Definitely some issues lately but they are still guessing better than I can!