TGM or Unofficial Guide- Who do I believe???

[ready4mouse]

OK- I need somebody who knows out there to help me!!!

I signed up for TGM and have spent many latenight hours online reading his articles, itineraries, and suggestions- ALL of which I thought were fantastic... I've even made a binder full of his info. My husband keeps asking me how I know this guy knows what he's talking about and I just say: "Trust me, he's a "Disboard sponsor" (which means nothing to my DH let me tell you )

Anyways, I have planned all of my park days, and coinciding ADRs, for my trip at the end of April, all based on TGM's suggestions for what parks to go to on certain days. But, last night I was at Border's reading the "Unofficial Guide to Disney", which I've also heard a lot of people like, and their "go to park" advice for the same days were EXACTLY OPPOSITE of TGM's!!!

Has anybody exclusively used either guide? Can you tell me who to believe? It's our first trip to Disney in 20+ years,and we're surprising our DS7 with his very first trip, so I know it'll be great regardless, but if I can avoid the craziest of the crowds it will make my DH (who's not so excited to begin with about going...) a little happier to be around

Thank you for all of your help and suggestions! I've become quite addicted to this board!!!

 

[disneyaggie]

Great question! I just signed up with TGM so I really don't know first hand, but I will give it a bump since I would also like to know!

What I do know is that I used the Unofficial Guide for my park itinierary and it was awesome!

 

[Goofy4]

Hard to say... Take the betting lines, for example, with "guaranteed winners if you call now". You know they have to be wrong much of the time, but if they're right 60-70% of the time that is a pretty good record and it is easy to know whether you won or lost.

With TGM and TP, could they possibly be right "most" of the time? Possibly, but how would you know unless you placed people in each park and compared notes?

I think the best thing you can do is understand some of the principles behind how they make their predictions, then try to avoid making the worst pick for a park rather than trying to come up with the absolute best. For example, does it really matter much if you picked the #2 (or even #3) preferred (least busy) park on a given day instead of #1? It might, but you'll probably never know for sure. If all else fails, flip a coin ;-)

 

[GEM]

I think if you use either one you'll still be ahead of 95% of the people in the parks.

 

[latexscooter]

Trust TGM he knows what he is talking about. He is at the parks often and uses his touring plans with VIPS. Because his info is online he is able to adjust as often as is needed. That kind of time-sensitive information is invaluable. You don't have that same luxury with a book that is written 6 months before publishing. For park touring advice and plans you are in good hands with Mike. I've used his services before and have nothing but compliments.

 

[ms.ojo]

Interesting question. I have used both. Quite often...they pick the same parks on the same days. Usually only the weekend is quite different. As a previous person posted...how do you really know if you picked well? It's all relative and unless you or someone in your party is in a diff't park on the same day you'll never really "know". I don't think we ever left a park as it was too crowded. It always ended up working for us. Except for one Thursday at MK that was such a zoo...I swore we'd never ever return on that day!!!

Normally, I would say never go to MK on a monday, Thursday or Sat no matter what anyone says. But then, didn't I find myself having to be there on a Saturday and the morning was just fine!!! Just like UG says it is!!! We hopped to another park and returned for the evening parade and fw. It was an absolute zoo. As both of them said it would be. But we knew it would be. and were there only for the parade and fw...it was totally doable. Just wouldn't have wanted to be there to try and do any rides!!

 

[ESN]

I had the same experience - "unoff Guide" and TGM give VERY different expected crowd levels and diff park recs. - Oh well - I guess I will have to see for myself!

The good news is that at least the recs of these two different sources will split the crowd somewhat!

 

[HydroGuy]

But, last night I was at Border's reading the "Unofficial Guide to Disney", which I've also heard a lot of people like, and their "go to park" advice for the same days were EXACTLY OPPOSITE of TGM's!!!

FYI, as others have said the book has some info that goes out of date quickly. This is one area. Their best days info is highly dependent on EHM extra hours, which WDW changes all the time. The good news is that the UG people keep a more up to date best days list online at: http://www.touringplans.com/BestDays.htm.

The not so good news is that their online info does not line up with TGM very well either. At least it doesn't during the time frames I am interested in.

I agree with the others here that if you use either resource you will be ahead of most everyone else.

 

[Skroops]

Definately use the advice that they both give, and get to the parks early, and take an afternoon break. That will help even on the busiest days, whichever advice you chose to use for picking your park.

 

[nalabell]

I used TGM this past August for my family of 4. I will say he was right on in everything that we did. As an example: We did all of fantasyland in MK in under an hour, we even had time to wake tinkerbell up. When we came back and walked through fantasyland two hours later all the lines where over 1hr. At every park we never waited more that 5 minutes on 99% of the rides. We are planning on going back this August and we have already signed up for TGM again. I was a little worried of giving a person I don't know my $, but it was worth every penny.

 

[NancyIL]

I look at it this way - instead of buying the latest edition of The Unofficial Guide this year, I subscribed to TourGuide Mike's service - so that's what I will use for my trip in 2 weeks. I haven't consulted TUG lately, so if TGM's plan works well, I'll know where to give the credit.

 

[subtchr]

Are you sure you compared TGM's best park advice with www.touringplans? Please correct me if I'm wrong, but in the UG (the actual book), the best days to go to the parks is just listed as days of the week, irregardless of time of year, changes in EMH schedule, etc. But TGM is very specific as to time of year, events, and especially EMH schedule. I planned tentative park days based on touringplans, then I joined TGM to finalize things. I found that they lined up almost exactly for our time frame, at least. I can't wait for our trip ~

 

[Pedler]

We used TGM last August and found his reccomendations to be dead on accurate. One thing to consider is the way that they both go about predicting the best days. TGM looks at many factors such as EMH, park hours, day of the week when shows are and the general crowd levels that he sees based on these items every single day that he or his other VIP guides are in the park. I think that is the key is that either he or his VIP guides are in the parks every single day. Aside from the www.tourguidemike.com business he also owns Micheals VIPs. That business does paid escorted tours of Disney and other attractions. It is in his best business interest to focus in on crowd levels and evaluate it on a daily basis. Also TGM breaks his best days down into morning and late afternoon / evening recommendations. This is more granular than the UG. Just because a park is going to be packed in the evening doesn't mean it is a bad choice for the morning.

The UG takes a look at many variables but they base in on statistical sampling of peak wait times on some days. They just are not able to be in the parks every day gathering information. The use this data to try to predict behavior for other days. Many times they are right but there have been times mentioned on this board where they have been way off. I think that is where you get the differences. One of the things that brought about the crowds blog that they have on the touringplans.com site is that many people had questions about thier crowd levels last year because they were signifigantly off for some days last April. I know that they have changed the way that they are doing their predictions but there still seem to be the differences between UG and TGM.

I generally would lean more towards the statistical model that UG uses but unless you can control for all of the variables and have a large enough data sample you run the risk of inaccuracies as have happened in the past. Remember that the UG for Disney is just one part of the UG business. Focusing on crowd levels and touring plans for Disney is not a daily activity for the UG.

 

[DLBDS]

Are you sure you compared TGM's best park advice with www.touringplans? Please correct me if I'm wrong, but in the UG (the actual book), the best days to go to the parks is just listed as days of the week, irregardless of time of year, changes in EMH schedule, etc. But TGM is very specific as to time of year, events, and especially EMH schedule. I planned tentative park days based on touringplans, then I joined TGM to finalize things. I found that they lined up almost exactly for our time frame, at least. I can't wait for our trip ~

The UG does indeed suggest the best (and worst) parks for each day of the year starting on page 37 (for 2006). It also includes a crowd level rating for each day. I'm not going to WDW until Dec. so I have to wait until around June before TGM will have his suggested touring plan available (waiting on Disney to post their information before he can collate).

 

[cbutterfield]

We go to disney for two weeks a year. Both plans work well. The key is be at the parks when they open and hit best rides first. It keeps you one step ahead of the crowd.

 

[HydroGuy]

What I wonder is how much EMH affects the UG's http://www.touringplans.com/BestDays.htm predictions? With WDW changing EMH around it would make it difficult to keep up with these for the UG people. Everyone seems to agree that EMH has a significant effect on the crowds at each park.

 

[MouseWorshipin]

Never used TGM, don't plan to. If it ain't broken, don't fix it...

I've always used the UG and it has never steered me wrong. But I do check at touringplans.com for updates.

 

[Kenswing]

Never used TGM, don't plan to. If it ain't broken, don't fix it...

I've always used the UG and it has never steered me wrong. But I do check at touringplans.com for updates.

I'm the same way. Except I started at TGM.....

 

[Cannot_Wait_4Disney]

Trust TGM he knows what he is talking about. He is at the parks often and uses his touring plans with VIPS. Because his info is online he is able to adjust as often as is needed. That kind of time-sensitive information is invaluable. You don't have that same luxury with a book that is written 6 months before publishing. For park touring advice and plans you are in good hands with Mike. I've used his services before and have nothing but compliments.

The UG's best days are on-line.

What I wonder is how much EMH affects the UG's http://www.touringplans.com/BestDays.htm predictions?

They change them if the EMH days do not fall where they historically were.

In General, the UG tells you to avoid EMH parks and try to hit parks the day after or before an emh. Or hit a morning emh, then hop out of that park by 11am.

 

[sarahsmom73]

I used TGM implicitly for our Thanksgiving trip. The one time I didn't (Our arrival day) it was insanity.. After that I stuck to the plan and it really was great! Hardly any waits, less crowded parks etc.. My vote goes to TGM!