In your situation, my ranking of your options would be as follows:
- Rent from DVC owners first, use codes and special promotions as a backup. This is going to give you the lowest cost overall, and with no obligation.
- Buy resale. If you can reliably schedule and book vacations more than seven months in advance, AND where you stay matters a great deal to you, consider buying where you want to stay. If EITHER of those criteria don't fit you, buy at SSR or OKW for the lower buyin and considerably lower dues.
- Buy direct. Personally, I would NOT do this...period. Honestly, if I HAD to buy DVC direct, I wouldn't purchase at all; I'd be looking at offsite options for a tiny fraction of the cost. I also think you might not be able to buy the small number of points you want direct as a new purchaser.
Cost comparisons:
Here's a look at cost comparisons for various resorts, including buying direct or resale at prevailing prices + your annual dues.
These calculations are based on two erroneous assumptions, but there is no other way I can think of to do an accurate comparison otherwise. The two assumptions are that you keep the contract until it expires (you won't), and if you resell it, you would net zero (that's not as far from reality as you think, but you'd almost certainly get
something back if you sold after 15-20 years). Without those assumptions, we end up in a pointless argument about how long you'd REALLY keep your DVC and what you'd REALLY sell it for at that time.
Also, I used the current dues numbers. Obviously, these will increase a little over time.
My personal opinion that the assumption of keeping the contract to expiration yields a substantial UNDER-estimate of overall costs. In other words, I think the true costs would be somewhat higher than I show below.
BCV -- Direct price $115, resale price for a small contract about $82, dues $5.28 per point.
There are actually only 30 years left (because the 2042 contracts expire in Jan 2042), so $115/30 = $3.83 per point acquisition cost. Dues are currently $5.28 per point, so your net per-point cost would be $9.11...which is QUITE high. If you buy a 60-point contract and go every other year, the cost of those 120 points will be $1,093.60. For
somewhat less than that, you could get a TWO BEDROOM for an entire week offsite, and have no ongoing obligation.
BCV resale -- At $82, your acquisition cost is $2.73 + $5.28 dues = $8.01 (still quite high), and your vacation cost for 120 points would be $961.60.
BWV -- Direct price $115 or $3.83 per point + $5.46 dues = $9.29 X 120 points = $1,114.80.
BWV resale @ $60 for a small contract is $2.00 per point acquisition cost + $5.46 dues = $7.46 X 120 = $895.20...still well north of what you can get a 2 BR for an entire week for offsite.
OKW -- $99 direct price is $3.30 per point acquisition cost + $4.98 dues = $8.28 X 120 = $993.60.
OKW resale @$60 is $2.00 acquisition cost + $4.98 dues = $6.98 X 120 = $837.60.
SSR -- SSR has an expiration date of 2057 (45 years), so the acquisition calculations will be a little different. Direct price of $99 is $2.20 per point acquisition cost + $4.51 dues = $6.71 X 120 = $805.20.
SSR resale at $65 = $1.44 acquisition cost + $4.51 dues = $5.95 X 120 = $714.53...or about the same as you'll pay for a 2 bedroom offsite for a week.