Castle was a bit of a surprise, since it isn't really doing all that well.
Of the new shows, the following have been picked up for a full season: Vampire Diaries, Cougar Town, Modern Family, Community, Cleveland Show, The Middle, The Good Wife, Flash Forward, Melrose Place (almost), and NCIS: Los Angeles.
Of the new shows, the following have not been picked up for a full season (yet): Accidentally on Purpose, Brothers, Hank, Eastwick, The Forgotten, Mercy, Trauma, Three Rivers (and, of course, The Beautiful Life, which is already canceled).
I'm surprised that the Middle is doing so well; while it is a borderline show, in the ratings, borderline is better than below the border, eh?
Keep in mind, with regard to Mercy and Trauma, neither show was ever intended for a full season. (Mercy wasn't even supposed to start until the winter.) Good thing: Neither show would have a chance of getting a back-nine order, given how poorly they're both doing. Only Law & Order is doing worse on NBC.
Leno is beginning to struggle now. It only met its goal one day this week (just missing the mark on all four other days, so it isn't really tanking, per se).
So NBC has got a bit of a problem. Chuck is waiting in the wings, and there is even time to order more episodes, if desired, but beyond that, all they have to back-fill Mercy, Trauma and Law & Order is Day One, which has been reduced to a mini-series already (just like "V"), so it is unlikely there is much will, there, to order more episodes.
Moving on...
I think Eastwick still has a (small) chance, but I think the rest are either not going to make it the full season, or at best be canceled after one season. Three Rivers, Melrose Place, Til Death, Brothers, Hank and the Forgotten have very little chance of making it to May.
Oh, and Dollhouse, it's a goner, IMHO. Bumped from November sweeps, the remaining nine episodes will be broadcast (Fox has said so, in specifically those terms), but I would not expect a back-nine order, nor a renewal.
to White Collar so far. There have only been two episodes so far but the two main guys seem to be hitting it off.
