Surge Question

[aggiedog]

I think it has to do with the fact that those that need to care just don't - the party throwers, the vacationers, the bar goers, the motorcycle rallyers. Those that do care, understand. And that there is no coordinated federal response.

I did read two separate opinion pieces in the NYT stating the media needs to get graphic with what's happening. Reporting numbers is one thing. Showing pictures and video of wards and ER's is something else.

 

[dvcgirl67]

I think it has to do with the fact that those that need to care just don't - the party throwers, the vacationers, the bar goers, the motorcycle rallyers. Those that do care, understand. And that there is no coordinated federal response.

I did read two separate opinion pieces in the NYT stating the media needs to get graphic with what's happening. Reporting numbers is one thing. Showing pictures and video of wards and ER's is something else.

I agree. It's very easy to just go about your life, especially in parts of the country where there are few restrictions. But if you knew the largely invisible battle that was happing in hospitals right in your own community, perhaps you'd think more about your own actions. For me,there are certain people in my life, both family and friends for whom I've lost a tremendous amount of respect.

 

[aggiedog]

I'll add I'm in Texas, so red state response to everything, if you will.

I was at a local convenience store/bakery this morning and saw 3 college age women flouncing about without masks. I've had patients tell me it's a hoax, even now. The local paper has pictures of various community events and >50% of the time the people in the pictures are not masked. We even had our annual Wassail tasting on the town square event last week. I mean, it's seriously maddening.

 

[focusondisney]

Here in the NYC area it’s all we are hearing, our numbers get worse every day, ads asking everyone to get tested, wear masks, governors threatening lockdowns...We are still in orange, I believe, but I’m guessing red soon. I really should get a haircut while I still can.

You might be too late with the haircut. At least if you’re in NY State. I’m in Western NY. Our salons & barber shops had to close when we became an orange zone.

 

[VandVsmama]

All of the hospitals in one county here in AZ are 100% full.

This is definitely a situation in which there can be a big variation in local news reports from 1 area to another. I think that everybody needs to remember that before passing judgment on the OP for asking the question.

 

[Weedy]

A friend of mine works for Orlando Health it’s the largest group of hospitals in Central Florida. Yesterday there were 151 people with Covid in all of their hospitals.
Orlando Health started tracking in patient in June and the numbers were in the 40’s.
There was a high of 400+ in July.
It’s been falling since then and was in the 90’s last month (they also added another hospital last month).
There are 1.3 million people living in Central Florida.

 

[Mackenzie Click-Mickelson]

I did read two separate opinion pieces in the NYT stating the media needs to get graphic with what's happening. Reporting numbers is one thing. Showing pictures and video of wards and ER's is something else.

I do remember seeing news articles in the spring with very clear photos pointing out morgue trucks, I've seen cemeteries showing the death toll with all new fresh graves. And I've watched videos of heartbroken medical staff, and the videos of ones who said goodbye to their loved ones through tablets and more, even that the pandemic is now affecting local animal shelters as those who adopted early on in the pandemic are giving up the animals now. It's not as if that hasn't been in the news before.

All that said pictures and videos such as what you're talking about should always be used with a disclaimer IMO even though they aren't always done that way. Sometimes we forget the survivors too and the memories they carry.

 

[Allison]

I think it is you.

 

[ronandannette]

It just seems they have been mentioning the deaths and surge etc. but not to the extent they were before. Now it seems like it's just a quick blip then on to the vaccine news. I have not heard the warnings about gathering for Christmas like I was hearing about Thanksgiving.

No "warnings" here either about Christmas. Instead we're on a full prohibition of admitting anyone to our homes other than permanent residents for any reason other than medical necessity. This is enforceable by law and was imposed mid-November to last until January 5 at the earliest. Our hospitalizations and fatalities are on a steady, upward rise and the volumes are now exponentially higher than they were at the peak in April.

 

[Moliphino]

Positive tests were up 73% in my area last week over the previous week. Quite a post-Thanksgiving surge.
I waited almost 4 hours for a test on Monday (I had to travel for work and am super paranoid, got two negative tests a few days apart before going near any other people). The wait at that same location 2 months ago was about 30 minutes.

 

[Heather07438]

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/12/09/us/covid-hospitals-icu-capacity.html
Access to healthcare is a central. We know hospitals are already filling up, healthcare workers are already exhausted, and we're entering the historic high flu season where these kinds of viruses have an easy time spreading. With the estimate that 30% of the population will have contracted C19 by year's end, there's still at least 50% vulnerable to exposure and maybe more.

For those who do get very sick, their outcomes can be greatly affected by access to healthcare. My doctor last month told me she already couldn't keep up with demand. I'm sure that's common and will get worse. What does that mean to average citizen? Your doctor may be very stretched trying to give you individualized attention. If we or our loved ones need the hospital, the ratio of workers to patients will be substandard. If we go back and look at the data early this year, it's apparent that overburdened hospitals had significantly worse patient outcomes on average. Care to patient ratios are huge.

Lastly, there is light at the end of the tunnel. We're in the home stretch. It's not like those protected from getting sick this winter (by limiting spread) will just get sick in the near term anyway and die or have lasting health issues regardless. Being able to avoid exposure this last stretch of 3-6 months means they can survive long enough to benefit from the vaccines underway.

Thinking this way doesn't mean I agree with shutting everything down. It means I see why it's worth it for me to adjust our (my family's) activities, especially when I hardly consider it a 'sacrifice'. Personally I don't feel like I'm losing out much by temporarily changing some of our habits like giving people space in public, condensing the number of public interactions we have, not gathering in large groups, * and wearing a mask when indoor public spaces or outdoors in close proximity. It doesn't have to be identical for everybody but I'm pretty sure there's adjustments we all can find to help reduce spread and I believe it does matter now... and in the long run.

*forgot to add wearing a mask with people outside household

 

[Kitty 34]

I have a thread, OP, where we can definitely put the word "surge" .

Michigan, it's all about the surge; it's just crazy. I think our governor is speaking again this afternoon.

 

[Mackenzie Click-Mickelson]

View attachment 543118
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/12/09/us/covid-hospitals-icu-capacity.html
Access to healthcare is a central. We know hospitals are already filling up, healthcare workers are already exhausted, and we're entering the historic high flu season where these kinds of viruses have an easy time spreading. With the estimate that 30% of the population will have contracted C19 by year's end, there's still at least 50% vulnerable to exposure and maybe more.

For those who do get very sick, their outcomes can be greatly affected by access to healthcare. My doctor last month told me she already couldn't keep up with demand. I'm sure that's common and will get worse. What does that mean to average citizen? Your doctor may be very stretched trying to give you individualized attention. If we or our loved ones need the hospital, the ratio of workers to patients will be substandard. If we go back and look at the data early this year, it's apparent that overburdened hospitals had significantly worse patient outcomes on average. Care to patient ratios are huge.

Lastly, there is light at the end of the tunnel. We're in the home stretch. It's not like those protected from getting sick this winter (by limiting spread) will just get sick in the near term anyway and die or have lasting health issues regardless. Being able to avoid exposure this last stretch of 3-6 months means they can survive long enough to benefit from the vaccines underway.

Thinking this way doesn't mean I agree with shutting everything down. It means I see why it's worth it for me to adjust our (my family's) activities, especially when I hardly consider it a 'sacrifice'. Personally I don't feel like I'm losing out much by temporarily changing some of our habits like giving people space in public, condensing the number of public interactions we have, not gathering in large groups, and wearing a mask when indoor public spaces or outdoors in close proximity. It doesn't have to be identical for everybody but I'm pretty sure there's adjustments we all can find to help reduce spread and I believe it does matter now... and in the long run.

I totally respect that for you it's the last/home stretch and just 3-6 months but at this point it can set us up for failure if that time passes and conditions are much the same or only somewhat improved, we've been burned a lot in that respect during this pandemic. I just consider that the timeline is undefined. The last stretch to me also means a large portion of the population is vaccinated and places are heavily considering easing restrictions completely, there's no looming death rate, hospitalization rate, social distancing is about to become a thing of the past and more. So if I go by that we're looking at much much much longer to be in the last stretch. Right now we don't even really have anyone vaccinated save for those in trials and various places are under tighter restrictions with some places back to stay at home, non-essentials are closed.

I understand if the idea of being in the last stretch gives people hope, it's my concern that the hope could turn into disregard of the actual situation once someone is vaccinated irrespective of what is going on or that the hope can be crushed if we're still under a lot of conditions, hopelessness has been high for a lot of people during this pandemic.

 

[MillauFr]

All of the hospitals in one county here in AZ are 100% full.

This is definitely a situation in which there can be a big variation in local news reports from 1 area to another. I think that everybody needs to remember that before passing judgment on the OP for asking the question.

Agreed. I'm sure with hospitals 100% full we will start hearing stories about people showing up at the ER and being refused care.

 

[aggiedog]

They won't be refused care. They will be put in beds and chairs in hallways and tents. They very well may be rationed care - no oxygen for you, we've run out of canisters, etc.

 

[Heather07438]

I totally respect that for you it's the last/home stretch and just 3-6 months but at this point it can set us up for failure if that time passes and conditions are much the same or only somewhat improved, we've been burned a lot in that respect during this pandemic. I just consider that the timeline is undefined. The last stretch to me also means a large portion of the population is vaccinated and places are heavily considering easing restrictions completely, there's no looming death rate, hospitalization rate, social distancing is about to become a thing of the past and more. So if I go by that we're looking at much much much longer to be in the last stretch. Right now we don't even really have anyone vaccinated save for those in trials and various places are under tighter restrictions with some places back to stay at home, non-essentials are closed.

I understand if the idea of being in the last stretch gives people hope, it's my concern that the hope could turn into disregard of the actual situation once someone is vaccinated irrespective of what is going on or that the hope can be crushed if we're still under a lot of conditions, hopelessness has been high for a lot of people during this pandemic.

Yeah, it does look as I'm being overly optimistic. I was kind of looking at it as most seniors and the most vulnerable should be able to get vaccinated and develop immunity in the 3 month window, and hopefully everybody will be there in 6 months. There are multiple vaccines on the horizon. Alot can go wrong as we've learned in 2020. It is possible tho. When I consider everything I can't help but feel like by next summer the bulk of this will be behind us.

 

[VandVsmama]

I kind of wish that all of the snowbirds from the Midwest would have stayed home and not come here to AZ this fall. I'd also like everybody traveling here to AZ from CA to keep their COVID cooties back in CA (like the CA soccer teams and other youth sports teams who have been coming here for huge sports tournaments).

 

[aggiedog]

Yeah, it does look as I'm being overly optimistic. I was kind of looking at it as most seniors and the most vulnerable should be able to get vaccinated and develop immunity in the 3 month window, and hopefully everybody will be there in 6 months. There are multiple vaccines on the horizon. Alot can go wrong as we've learned in 2020. It is possible tho. When I consider everything I can't help but feel like by next summer the bulk of this will be behind us.

I'm totally optimistic that next summer will be better. It's the period of time between now and next summer that worries me. A LOT of people will die, or get sick and end up long haulers, before we finally achieve enough vaccinations to make a difference.

 

[aprilchem]

Record numbers where I live, every day. Governor just announced new restrictions (which are WAY less stringent than they need to be). More people died from COVID in the US than died from 9/11 every single day now.

Thanks, all you people who traveled for Thanksgiving. We've been living our lives in lockdown here since March and you just bought us another 3 months of this. I hope it was worth it.

 

[HeatherC]

Definitely a surge here as well. Our town has had 289 total cases since March. 102 of them have been in the last 14 days alone. Our towns positivity rate is about 5.6% which is the highest it has ever been by quite a bit.