SSR Truly Cheapest?

[ToddyLu]

DH and I own at AKV and it is so true that the animals are not often visible. It is true that the rooms are dark and that the values are a deal. So YES it is very important that you really like the vibe or "feel" of the resort.

We love everything about AKV, the decor, the occasional slow bus (much like elsewhere on property), the distance from three of the parks is even nice.

The real test is when you HAVE to book at another resort or decide to "try it out". BLT was a disappointment to DH the second we pulled up to the resort. I could almost hear an audible "Oooo" let down and sigh. We only stayed on Halloween night, one night and that was enough for him. I know how much we spend on our trips with planning and cost for tickets, etc. Just like everyone else that has posted. SSR is OK and so very quiet. I could go on and on. But after you have seen a giraffe 12 times and have been to the pool bar three, do you still want to be there? For us it is a yes, we still want to stay at AKV.

You can talk money for this and that and to all of us it is important to some degree. But please, please go and walk around the resort, sit quietly in the lobby, watch the guests, eat at the restaurant, walk to the room that is far, far away from check in to see how you feel about that.

You know AKV is NOT a disappointment when you are on the last room at the far end of Kidani and still LOVE the place. When you are on that long walk back to the bus and are looking out the hall windows ( because you forgot your jacket) and don't see any animals and it is raining. You will want to love the place and the resort is far more important that what you first thought. Now you remember you own there for a really long time....

Please take time to review the resorts you are interested in before purchase...

 

[skier_pete]

DH and I own at AKV and it is so true that the animals are not often visible. It is true that the rooms are dark and that the values are a deal. So YES it is very important that you really like the vibe or "feel" of the resort.

We bought there having stayed only once. We saw animals out our balcony every day, but admittedly not ALL day. Our family all loves animals, but I thought I would get bored of it, but in the end I loved being able to see the animals any chance we got. I like the style of the resort. The long bus ride to AK doesn't phase me terribly. We didn't buy specifically for the value rooms, but think that long term we might take advantage of it if we do get to the point that we don't care as much about the animals. (Right now the first time we go I definitely want a Savannah view!)

Even though we have yet to use our points, I strongly believe in the "own where you love", or at least the correlary - don't buy where you don't like. I wouldn't buy at SSR unless I found I liked the resort.

 

[Minniesgal]

Fair enough, but it's an inaccurate statement and stats show otherwise. Maybe for major holidays you will need to get in the first minute at the 11 month mark, but for the most part you do not need to do this. I will say that you probably need to book between months 10 - 11, which is the more accurate statement. I just checked the DVC tool for July 2015. It showed the following availability on AKL Values Rooms: Studio - All Dates Except July 1st - 3rd, 6th, 17th and 23rd 1 Bedroom - All Dates Except July 2nd - 4th, 17th, 21st-23rd 2 Bedrooms All Dates Except July 1st - 4th, 6th, 17th, 21, 22, 23. Also, I will give you another secret. BWV standard is also cheaper than SSR with greater availiblity than AKL Value rooms: BWV STD Studio in Choice - 78 points - purchase of 78 points needed for choice week @ $88 = $6,864 - Yearly Maint Fees $468.00 SSR Studio in Choice - purchase of 104 points needed for choice week @ $73 = $7,592 - Yearly Maint Fee $510.64 Sure, SSR has the advantage in more years, but most consider BWV to be in a prime location. So to the OP I would say this, in my statistical analysis: -AKL Value rooms are currently the cheapest room hands down, but you need to book between 10 and 11 months. They also provide 3 extra years that SSR does not provide. - Second, BWV STD rooms would be the next inexpensive choice, but you need to book one of these rooms at least 8 months out and probably sooner during F&W season. BWV has 12 less years than SSR, so that is something you would want to consider. - Third, if your schedule is more rigid and you cannot book trips 8 months in advance, SSR gives you the flexibility that AKL Value and BWV STD lack. SSR overall is less expensive than another other resort not titled AKL or BWV.

July isn't exactly peak season for DVC

 

[JimMIA]

The fundamental fallacy I see over and over here (having scanned the thread lightly) is that most are talking about the relative costs of studios. Value studios vs. standard studios.

Really? OMG people! If I were satisfied with a standard hotel room (or a studio, if you prefer), I would not buy anybody's timeshare, anywhere!

If you are satisfied with a studio, don't only compare standard vs. value studios -- also compare with value and mod Disney hotel rooms, including commonly-available discounts.

The comparison I would do is not room to room, but point to point. How you spend your points is up to you, but what are your points likely to cost you?

And for that, I'd use this logic (or absence of logic, you pick):

• I'm not keeping this thing forever; very few owners will. I'm assuming 10 years of ownership.
• I'm assuming when I sell in 10 years, I will net 30% less than I paid. And considering that I'm going to pay a 10% commission selling, I think that is a very optimistic assumption. A 40% loss would probably be more realistic, but would send most here off the edge.
• I have not the faintest clue what the increases in dues will be from resort to resort (nor does anyone else), so why bother? Take the current year's MF's X 10 and you will have a comparatively accurate number.
• I'm assuming you would buy resale...because if you don't, I can't help you.
• Assuming resale, I'm taking a SWAG average of the most recent prices on the ROFR thread for the purchase price, and 30% of that as the capital loss over ten years of ownership.
• I'm ignoring the time value of money because I was bored senseless by that in MBA finance classes and swore I'd never do it again. If I have to figure things that fine, I don't do them.

Using those assumptions, here is what I came up with. I guarantee you it is wrong, but no more wrong that any of the other tortured calculations we see.

BLT: average purchase price $92, dues $4.78. 30% of purchase $28 + $47.80 (um...$4.78 X 10) = cost per point over 10 years $75.80

OKW: purchase $62, dues $5.54. 30% loss $19 + $55.40 = $74.40

SSR: purchase $70, dues $4.91. 30% loss $21 + $49.10 = $70.10

AKV: purchase $75, dues $5.97. 30% loss $23 + $59.70 = $82.70

OKW is my favorite resort, but using my own system and assumptions -- as much as I love OKW -- SSR "wins."

 

[bakerworld]

Studio Dwellers here and AK owners. AK was our first DVC purchase with the value, room service and concierge availability being the deciding factors. We finally stayed in a Value and enjoyed the bed by the slider and the couch by the kitchenette.

 

[skier_pete]

The fundamental fallacy I see over and over here (having scanned the thread lightly) is that most are talking about the relative costs of studios.

BLT: average purchase price $92, dues $4.78. 30% of purchase $28 + $47.80 (um...$4.78 X 10) = cost per point over 10 years $75.80

OKW: purchase $62, dues $5.54. 30% loss $19 + $55.40 = $74.40

SSR: purchase $70, dues $4.91. 30% loss $21 + $49.10 = $70.10

AKV: purchase $75, dues $5.97. 30% loss $23 + $59.70 = $82.70

OKW is my favorite resort, but using my own system and assumptions -- as much as I love OKW -- SSR "wins."

The fact though - you can talk about studios, one bedrooms, two bedrooms or whatever, but you DO have to factor in the points per stay. A standard one-bedroom at BLT for a week during Dream Season (the middle rate season) is 250 pts. At OKW the same villa is 199 points. Now, I realize you could use the points you buy anywhere to rent at OKW, but I can't agree to the logic of ponying up the extra up front cash to buy at BLT in order to "save money" when you are staying at OKW.

Likewise, the OP premise, is that he uses his points at the value rooms. Same 1-bedroom at a value AKV stay is 167 pts for the week. Since the only way to book a value room at AKL or a standard room at BLT is to own at the respective resorts:

At 250 pts per week at $75.80 a point - 10 1-bedroom stays at BLT cost you $18,950
At 167 pts per week at $82.70 a point - 10 1-bedroom stays at AKV cost you $13,811

So, there is logic to the OPs statement.

 

[Dean]

Yes, I received 200 points on my 100 APR UY contract for 2014 and I have 100 points in 2015. Actually, I split 2014 MF with the buyer but paid closing. This was just an add on for me as I already owned at AKV.

SSR is a safer/ more flexible play than AKL - Value. I'll give you that. But, it's not a check the box, yep it's cheaper exercise. Too many factors involved.

Personally, I like SSR, as I was trying to get points there too along with my BLT, HHI and AKV resorts. I needed to get 300 points @ AKV, so I am all set now with my add on.

I think a good comparison is buying SSR ONLY for AKV standard to AKV only for value same size and season and look at a 10 yr window. If you do that and assume no dues increases, you'd need to buy SSR $10 a point lower to break even. If you assume inflationary dues over 10 yrs at 4% starting at the current level, AKV is still cheaper in that scenario at the same purchase price but less so. I used SSR 255 points starting at $4.91 dues and AKV 220 points starting at $5.97 dues (2 BR value vs standard AKV). The other tidbits are that you get the 3 yrs more with AKV, own 35 less points total and are tied to the value rooms only and lose the potential of the extra baths and larger rooms that come with standard view. The break even on simply a cost basis is at 232 AKV points vs 255 SSR or you'd need to use value at least 65% of the time to break even compared to SSR at the same buy in price. Realistically I don't see them being the same with AKV slightly higher but it's possible that the higher dues will drive them together much like interest rates would affect a bond price. So I think it's safe to say that SSR will be cheaper long term (remember we only went 10 yrs) other than possibly one who buys an add on specifically and only for the value rooms and I believe you'd have less risk with SSR. But I'd agree, and have said many times, that if one mostly uses value at AKV, it can be a good ownership cost wise. And I'd qualify (have many times here as well) that's it's the cheapest long term cost, not simply SSR, it just happens that SSR happens to be that for most situations.

 

[djohn06]

The fact though - you can talk about studios, one bedrooms, two bedrooms or whatever, but you DO have to factor in the points per stay. A standard one-bedroom at BLT for a week during Dream Season (the middle rate season) is 250 pts. At OKW the same villa is 199 points. Now, I realize you could use the points you buy anywhere to rent at OKW, but I can't agree to the logic of ponying up the extra up front cash to buy at BLT in order to "save money" when you are staying at OKW.

Likewise, the OP premise, is that he uses his points at the value rooms. Same 1-bedroom at a value AKV stay is 167 pts for the week. Since the only way to book a value room at AKL or a standard room at BLT is to own at the respective resorts:

At 250 pts per week at $75.80 a point - 10 1-bedroom stays at BLT cost you $18,950
At 167 pts per week at $82.70 a point - 10 1-bedroom stays at AKV cost you $13,811

So, there is logic to the OPs statement.

Thanks for stating this, as it saved me much typing . Continuing along with the assumptions that were provided in this scenario:

SSR one bedroom requires 60 more points at purchase than a Value AKV 1 bedroom. I think this is a key number that drives the final totals, and should not be ignored. The 60 extra points missing from the equation = an additional $4,206 onto SSR's costs. Which would bring the total cost on a 1 bedroom at SSR up to $15,912 vs. $13,811 for AKV value.

Even if I used this same scenario and said, I was going to purchase enough points to do Value year 1 and then STD year two and repeat that 5 times for a total of 10 years, I would need to buy 184 points vs. 167 (in case it doesn't seem realistic to score a value 1 bedroom every year). I would then bank the extra 17 points for the following year to get a STD 1 bedroom at 200 points. I still would come out at $15,216 on AKV over 10 years.

I think a good comparison is buying SSR ONLY for AKV standard to AKV only for value same size and season and look at a 10 yr window. If you do that and assume no dues increases, you'd need to buy SSR $10 a point lower to break even. If you assume inflationary dues over 10 yrs at 4% starting at the current level, AKV is still cheaper in that scenario at the same purchase price but less so. I used SSR 255 points starting at $4.91 dues and AKV 220 points starting at $5.97 dues (2 BR value vs standard AKV). The other tidbits are that you get the 3 yrs more with AKV, own 35 less points total and are tied to the value rooms only and lose the potential of the extra baths and larger rooms that come with standard view. The break even on simply a cost basis is at 232 AKV points vs 255 SSR or you'd need to use value at least 65% of the time to break even compared to SSR at the same buy in price. Realistically I don't see them being the same with AKV slightly higher but it's possible that the higher dues will drive them together much like interest rates would affect a bond price. So I think it's safe to say that SSR will be cheaper long term (remember we only went 10 yrs) other than possibly one who buys an add on specifically and only for the value rooms and I believe you'd have less risk with SSR. But I'd agree, and have said many times, that if one mostly uses value at AKV, it can be a good ownership cost wise. And I'd qualify (have many times here as well) that's it's the cheapest long term cost, not simply SSR, it just happens that SSR happens to be that for most situations.

Thanks for sharing this. One thing I never thought about was actually buying SSR and using points for AKV STD, and the savings involved. When the spread was more like $15 a point this was a great strategy to use.

 

[Dean]

Thanks for stating this, as it saved me much typing . Continuing along with the assumptions that were provided in this scenario:

SSR one bedroom requires 60 more points at purchase than a Value AKV 1 bedroom. I think this is a key number that drives the final totals, and should not be ignored. The 60 extra points missing from the equation = an additional $4,206 onto SSR's costs. Which would bring the total cost on a 1 bedroom at SSR up to $15,912 vs. $13,811 for AKV value.

Even if I used this same scenario and said, I was going to purchase enough points to do Value year 1 and then STD year two and repeat that 5 times for a total of 10 years, I would need to buy 184 points vs. 167 (in case it doesn't seem realistic to score a value 1 bedroom every year). I would then bank the extra 17 points for the following year to get a STD 1 bedroom at 200 points. I still would come out at $15,216 on AKV over 10 years.

I'll work with the 2 BR since that's where I did the math. At EOY value then standard 50% each AKV is $2000 more over 10 yrs at the same buy in price with 237 points owned vs 255. When you figure that there are times you'll try day one 11 months out and still likely not get value, times when you'd have to wait past 11 months to know and times when you might have to cancel or change and couldn't get value back; you'd be lucky to do 50% of the time when hoping to do value 100%.

Thanks for sharing this. One thing I never thought about was actually buying SSR and using points for AKV STD, and the savings involved. When the spread was more like $15 a point this was a great strategy to use.

It's $10 a point to break even IF you only stay at value using the AKV points and over 10 yrs. For only value compared to SSR points staying AKV standard, over 40 yrs it is $5K more for 35 less points every year using the above 1 wk dream 2BR. Overall that still makes SSR the cheaper option for one who's trying to get in the club and try different things, maybe not for one simply trying to get the value rooms which may not consistently be available. It also assumes you'd never get value owning SSR reasonable but not guaranteed. The only way you can make the argument AKV is as good of a choice $$$ wise is if using value a large % of the time esp since the number of points is important to someone wanting to try all of the resorts over time. Now if you want concierge part of the time then the owning AKV discussion changes drastically but then so do the points and numbers. Of course there's no guarantee that standard view AKV will be available at 7 months but it's about as close to a guarantee as you can get in the timeshare world.

 

[bakerworld]

Couple Questions?

1) Does it matter if SSR is the Cheapest? Maybe the better question is what is the Cheapest DVC venue that is the hardest to reserve?

Reality of SSR is you can always get in there - I've called several times less than 3 weeks out during Spring and Summer. The only time I had a problem getting in SSR was over President's weekend so we booked OKW which is basically the same venue.

2) As there are threads on point amounts and dinning, there has to be a thread on length of membership so what is the real mean age of membership?

 

[djohn06]

I'll work with the 2 BR since that's where I did the math. At EOY value then standard 50% each AKV is $2000 more over 10 yrs at the same buy in price with 237 points owned vs 255. When you figure that there are times you'll try day one 11 months out and still likely not get value, times when you'd have to wait past 11 months to know and times when you might have to cancel or change and couldn't get value back; you'd be lucky to do 50% of the time when hoping to do value 100%.




It's $10 a point to break even IF you only stay at value using the AKV points and over 10 yrs. For only value compared to SSR points staying AKV standard, over 40 yrs it is $5K more for 35 less points every year using the above 1 wk dream 2BR. Overall that still makes SSR the cheaper option for one who's trying to get in the club and try different things, maybe not for one simply trying to get the value rooms which may not consistently be available. It also assumes you'd never get value owning SSR reasonable but not guaranteed. The only way you can make the argument AKV is as good of a choice $$$ wise is if using value a large % of the time esp since the number of points is important to someone wanting to try all of the resorts over time. Now if you want concierge part of the time then the owning AKV discussion changes drastically but then so do the points and numbers. Of course there's no guarantee that standard view AKV will be available at 7 months but it's about as close to a guarantee as you can get in the timeshare world.

Maybe I am lucky but I've seen availability many times for times I wanted to go between 10 and 11 months. I think you aren't factoring in the new availability tool too which makes it very easy to select dates vs picking random dates that add up. Plus, I don't mind split stays and grabbing a studio for a few nights vs. a 1 bedroom and then staying at BLT or BWV. I go mainly between April and July. I put my odds of landing a Value resort based on my usage right at 90 percent. I even landed concierge once at 7 months using the tool. I have no worries as long as I am flexible.

If someone has diligence and flexibility the Values can easily be had.

 

[Dean]

Couple Questions?

1) Does it matter if SSR is the Cheapest? Maybe the better question is what is the Cheapest DVC venue that is the hardest to reserve?

I think it does to many and it was the subject of the OP. The problem with the cost vs value analysis is it's far more variable and subjective, esp since I think rack rates is an extremely poor choice of analysis.

Reality of SSR is you can always get in there - I've called several times less than 3 weeks out during Spring and Summer. The only time I had a problem getting in SSR was over President's weekend so we booked OKW which is basically the same venue.[/QUOTE]No doubt SSR is the easiest to reserve as well but does it matter from a cost standpoint. If one wants to reserve something difficult much of the time, SSR is a good fall back option if you own something else as is OKw. However, there is a price for that strategy that can be quite a premium. I think everyone is in agreement that if you want something difficult routinely, you'll have to own there or use cash in some way. Then the question becomes what is the cost and is it worth it and the truth is it often isn't from a $$$ standpoint. I'm sure there are buyers at VGF that are GF type people and would not have bought DVC were it not been for that option, the same will be true for the Poly I'm sure. You've no doubt seen me post the difference in cost and value as I see it, the value issue is what I believe you're referring to.

For a new member, SSR will be the cheapest to get WDW 11 month reservations and will almost certainly allow the chance to try all resorts if desired including VGF with advance planning. I'm assuming a new member will want to try many things over time, not just AKV value or BWV standard. But it has the limitation that EVERY single resort including VGF has, the 7 month window for non owned resorts. Realistically VGF, BCV & the Poly will likely be the only ones at WDW truly difficult to get into for most people with planning so if we take the stance that we have to have a resort we couldn't get otherwise it would follow that one needs to own one of these resorts (ignoring special options of course). I know some would add VWL to this option but I wouldn't unless one is targeting specific high demand times as the routine and I would not add BWV or BLT to this list personally.

One possible option is to have multiple home resorts, likely most of them; that's quite costly and not generally a reasonable choice for most but is for some. It's certainly the obvious endpoint to the line of thinking of having the 11 month window for difficult options.

2) As there are threads on point amounts and dinning, there has to be a thread on length of membership so what is the real mean age of membership?

As for age of membership, are you suggesting remaining RTU or age of the members. The former is valid though maybe overstated at times, the later I feel is irrelevant in many ways because someone will be using the membership and HOPEFULLY (though not guaranteed) there will be a proportional value at the point those of us here discussing it won't be involved. Put another way, the fact that you or I might not be alive to see the end has no meaning on the discussion of value or $$ IMO. The one that I see as particularly interesting are the ones that want to say they won't see the end but want to figure value on a per year basis of the RTU.

 

[JimMIA]

I think structuring a financial comparison to any particular difficult-to-get villa type is only valid if that is the only type of accommodation you would accept. If you might use your points to stay at other resorts, or other size villas, the comparison is bogus.

In other words, if you HAVE to have an AKV value studio or you don't go to WDW, it's a valid comparison. If not, not.

1) Does it matter if SSR is the Cheapest?

Good question, and as much as we love to get tangled up in these monetary discussions, I suspect lowest cost is seldom the deciding factor in many owners decision on home resort.

When I purchased, it was my primary concern. OKW is our favorite resort anyway and we were perfectly content to stay there. But I bought before AKV, BLT, VGF, VGC, Aulani, and Poly. There are a lot more choices now, each with valid non-financial benefits that often outweigh our bean-counter instincts.

That's why I am often suspicious of these discussions. They sometimes are so tortuously structured to prove a point that it seems like someone purchased from their heart and is now trying to justify their decision financially.

It's a luxury purchase -- buy what you want and enjoy it!

 

[Dean]

Maybe I am lucky but I've seen availability many times for times I wanted to go between 10 and 11 months. I think you aren't factoring in the new availability tool too which makes it very easy to select dates vs picking random dates that add up. Plus, I don't mind split stays and grabbing a studio for a few nights vs. a 1 bedroom and then staying at BLT or BWV. I go mainly between April and July. I put my odds of landing a Value resort based on my usage right at 90 percent. I even landed concierge once at 7 months using the tool. I have no worries as long as I am flexible.

If someone has diligence and flexibility the Values can easily be had.

Interesting that you're upholding the point by being willing to get a day or 2 here and there possibly in different size villas and some days in between at other resorts. Even at 7 months out using SSR one could often get those options. However, the olds of getting a value only apply for when you want one and for many people, if there are personal or work issues that cause them to either have to wait, change or cancel; it won't be at 10-11 months out but much later. I'm not sure you could even get much over 90% for a full week stay trying day one 11 months out every time with no changes. It's a little like those who tout DCL but then have to cancel. I've seen several people post they lost a boatload of points in this way, the same for RCI, etc. It only takes one such time like that to eliminate the entire value of a DVC ownership even if DCL or similar were a reasonable value otherwise.

 

[djohn06]

I just check 1 bedroom value availability from Feb until aug 8th. I found the following available dates:

Feb 1 to 13
Mar 1 to 7, 26th to Apr 3rd (during our Spring Break week)
Apr 12 to 18, 24 to May 2
May 5 to 15, 17 to 25
June not as good. 11 scattered days
July 7 to 16, 18 to 22, 24th to Aug 7th.

I think it's safe to assume a 90 percent success rate at the AKV - Value.

Also, I agree with the other post that most people don't buy for value, they buy what they like. I happen to like AKV, so I have the best of both worlds.

I think this was a healthy debate that I learned something from. So I appreciate the convo.

 

[Dean]

I think structuring a financial comparison to any particular difficult-to-get villa type is only valid if that is the only type of accommodation you would accept. If you might use your points to stay at other resorts, or other size villas, the comparison is bogus.

In other words, if you HAVE to have an AKV value studio or you don't go to WDW, it's a valid comparison. If not, not.Good question, and as much as we love to get tangled up in these monetary discussions, I suspect lowest cost is seldom the deciding factor in many owners decision on home resort.

When I purchased, it was my primary concern. OKW is our favorite resort anyway and we were perfectly content to stay there. But I bought before AKV, BLT, VGF, VGC, Aulani, and Poly. There are a lot more choices now, each with valid non-financial benefits that often outweigh our bean-counter instincts.

That's why I am often suspicious of these discussions. They sometimes are so tortuously structured to prove a point that it seems like someone purchased from their heart and is now trying to justify their decision financially.

It's a luxury purchase -- buy what you want and enjoy it!

The one area that Jim and I differ on this subject is that I feel DVC must at least make sense financially (and otherwise) to be a reasonable purchase. Certainly if someone has the cash to throw away and decide to do so on DVC or simply use DVC as a hobby no matter the cost; their prerogative assuming they have their financial house in order otherwise. The problem I see is those that fit into the latter trying to make it the former, or even worse, those that can't afford it treating it like the latter group (like when people lease a car they couldn't afford otherwise or an interest only house loan). IMO the psychology of timeshares is really the overwhelming factor and I feel this makes the up front decisions and wrangling even more important because there are several factors that can make owning a timeshare (esp DVC) FAR more expensive than not, some good and some bad. The good one CAN be that you might vacation more and/or in nicer digs. The negatives are that you do your analysis on say a studio and end up with a 1 BR, nice digs but far more likely to be outside the analysis and possibly the budget as well. Finally, and likely the worst one for many, is people look at the points and their usage as found money once they own already and fail to consider the value. Their choice of course and I feel the best way to combat that risk or simply plan for it, is with the up front planning.

 

[djohn06]

Interesting that you're upholding the point by being willing to get a day or 2 here and there possibly in different size villas and some days in between at other resorts. Even at 7 months out using SSR one could often get those options. However, the olds of getting a value only apply for when you want one and for many people, if there are personal or work issues that cause them to either have to wait, change or cancel; it won't be at 10-11 months out but much later. I'm not sure you could even get much over 90% for a full week stay trying day one 11 months out every time with no changes. It's a little like those who tout DCL but then have to cancel. I've seen several people post they lost a boatload of points in this way, the same for RCI, etc. It only takes one such time like that to eliminate the entire value of a DVC ownership even if DCL or similar were a reasonable value otherwise.

I do split stays because that is the travel style of my family, not to uphold a point. I like the convenience of a monorail or Epcot resort. I like AKV, my family loves AKV. After 4 days at AKL, the remoteness would get to as will the buses. So, I would switch to BLT where I own and I would stay at.... You guessed it... A STD room at BLT.

 

[Dean]

I just check 1 bedroom value availability from Feb until aug 8th. I found the following available dates:

Feb 1 to 13
Mar 1 to 7, 26th to Apr 3rd (during our Spring Break week)
Apr 12 to 18, 24 to May 2
May 5 to 15, 17 to 25
June not as good. 11 scattered days
July 7 to 16, 18 to 22, 24th to Aug 7th.

I think it's safe to assume a 90 percent success rate at the AKV - Value.

Also, I agree with the other post that most people don't buy for value, they buy what they like. I happen to like AKV, so I have the best of both worlds.

I think this was a healthy debate that I learned something from. So I appreciate the convo.

Agree, it's always good to get some usable info out there. I'd add one other point that I've made elsewhere and I think applies to your situation. You've assumed best case scenario or close to it, anything that goes wrong will be negative to your assumptions. The 2 largest risks on DVC's side is that dues for AKV will outpace others (I think it will) and that your assumptions of availability are overly optimistic (I think they are). Then there's simply life happening on your side. One last point, you used the 1 BR, maybe that's what you'd generally prefer but as a rule, it's the easiest for availability within DVC. If that's what you generally want that will work to your advantage but it will be skewed in terms of availability compared to studio and 2 BR options. And indeed it does appears the studio is far less available than the 1 BR.

In fairness there are assumptions related to buying SSR as well but I feel they are less of a stretch and less risky.

 

[JimMIA]

The one area that Jim and I differ on this subject is that I feel DVC must at least make sense financially (and otherwise) to be a reasonable purchase.

We don't disagree about that. I agree completely that the purchase should make sense financially.

I think where we disagree slightly is that you are more hard-core about not financing. I would never finance a timeshare purchase myself, but I don't know enough about another person's financial picture or how well they manage their debt to express an opinion on them financing.

I do, however, think people considering financing owe it to their families to take a long, hard look at exactly how much financing increases the cost of purchase. There is no question that financing could tip the scales from making sense financially to not making sense.

For example, all of these examples we've been talking about of relative points costs are complete fairy tales unless your financing costs are included.

 

[Dean]

I do split stays because that is the travel style of my family, not to uphold a point. I like the convenience of a monorail or Epcot resort. I like AKV, my family loves AKV. After 4 days at AKL, the remoteness would get to as will the buses. So, I would switch to BLT where I own and I would stay at.... You guessed it... A STD room at BLT.

Which also requires the 11 month window or close to it. This discussion has centered around those buying in and the relative cost/value of differing options for a new buyer (implied if not stated) or single owned resort and that has been my focus. How you or I would do it really isn't part of the issue other than as it would generalize. I certainly wouldn't suggest a new member go out and buy BLT points to use for standard view options AND AKV points to use for value and essentially nothing else. I personally own a small AKV contract and BWV and sold off a large chunk (550) OKW points a number of years ago. Most of my personal stays are on RCI exchanges including VWL, OKW, AKV, BCV, BWV & SSR. I haven't stayed at BLT on an exchange but I have had it available and chose other resorts purposefully. I have also stayed at VB on an exchange and own otherwise in HH. My current costs are about $650 a week inclusive up significantly from a few years ago. But that is not an option for one just getting started in the timeshare world.