Spring Direct Incentives 2/9-4/27

  • SSR comparison needs to be done at 200 points, there is a huge value of stretching that you don't have at RIV/PVB/VDH. If you could afford 150 PVB at $29,750 after MB you can afford 200 SSR at $30,000
  • I'd take the $20/point Magic Beginnings. This is an advantage to SSR as you pay less upfront and get the same back
This thread is long and I have probably already read it and forgotten but:

Do we know if MB is even offered for SSR? If it's not that calculation needs to be thrown out the window.
 
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I'd give $1/year upfront benefit for each additional year longer than SSR
I was with you right up to this point. I am not sure where this comes from, or why.

I suppose you could argue that OKW tells us the value of future years, but I also suspect that expiration dates are underweighted in the market becuase people are not good at thinking about future value. So, I think OKW tells you the cost of future years, but maybe not their value.
 
I know I'm about to get a lot of hate for this, but I think the whole monorail resort argument is overrated from an efficiency standpoint. Sure you're close to MK and the monorail is a magical way to get to the parks, but that whole TTC transfer to EPCOT is a killer. You can get to EPCOT quicker from SSR and OKW.

I will take it even a little further. Pound for pound if you consider average travel times to all 4 parks and Disney Springs from each resort using the most efficient Disney transportation, SSR (preferred) and OKW (near hospitality) rank higher than many beloved or more "premium" resorts.

1771425811853.png

For Poly the numbers improve if you're staying in Moorea or Pago and you walk to the TTC.
 
I know I'm about to get a lot of hate for this, but I think the whole monorail resort argument is overrated from an efficiency standpoint. Sure you're close to MK and the monorail is a magical way to get to the parks, but that whole TTC transfer to EPCOT is a killer. You can get to EPCOT quicker from SSR and OKW.
Efficiency yes. Magical no.

Being able to leave a sleeping child in a stroller and board the monorail, boat or skyliner is where the magic is rather than removing said child and then breaking down the stroller to board the bus.
 

This thread is long and I have probably already read it and forgotten but:

Do we know if MMB is even offered for SSR? If it's not that calculation needs to be thrown out the window.
I have not specifically confirmed it, but the latest intelligence I read somewhere on this board in the last few months was that MB is currently offered for all resorts, including sold out resorts without any flash sale (I think it might have been PolyRob who confirmed it - won’t tag him though since he hasn’t been very active on here recently) . Of course, that could change at any time so it is something someone would want to confirm if they’re thinking about this SSR sale.
 
Efficiency yes. Magical no.

Being able to leave a sleeping child in a stroller and board the monorail, boat or skyliner is where the magic is rather than removing said child and then breaking down the stroller to board the bus.
Yeah, I get the whole stroller point. I have a 3YO. But no matter where you stay you will need to at least take 2 buses to two parks anyways.
 
I know I'm about to get a lot of hate for this, but I think the whole monorail resort argument is overrated from an efficiency standpoint. Sure you're close to MK and the monorail is a magical way to get to the parks, but that whole TTC transfer to EPCOT is a killer. You can get to EPCOT quicker from SSR and OKW.

I will take it even a little further. Pound for pound if you consider average travel times to all 4 parks and Disney Springs from each resort using the most efficient Disney transportation, SSR (preferred) and OKW (near hospitality) rank higher than many beloved or more "premium" resorts.

View attachment 1049221

For Poly the numbers improve if you're staying in Moorea or Pago and you walk to the TTC.
So if you cherry pick data then SSR and OKW are middle of the pack? 🤣

Assuming the best possible starting location from only SSR and OKW rooms seems a little dishonest. Add at least a few minutes to the average for the people having to use the internal bus loop and then run the data without Disney Springs as an option, which is obviously doing a lot of heavy lifting too as they are Disney Springs resorts, but most people only care about proximity to the parks. My head math says they are now bottom of the list for time to the parks or very close to it. Poly may still be the last though.

But the Poly Monorail time to Epcot seems a bit long. Personally I would rather walk to the TTC from anywhere at Poly than take the monorail the long way around. We did it from the Poly Tower last month and it was still great, and I think it was much less than 30 minutes. You could alternatively assume the best poly location for travel like you did with SSR/OKW and assume they are staying in the closest room to the TTC for the Epcot monorail times, and take the express monorail time only vs the resort monorail for MK.

Then you get into the argument about "feeling" the magic. It just seems so much nicer to be able to walk to, or ride a boat/monorail to a park. Even if the time isn't that much faster
 
This thread is long and I have probably already read it and forgotten but:

Do we know if MMB is even offered for SSR? If it's not that calculation needs to be thrown out the window.
I assume you mean Magical Beginnings? If so, yes, Magical Beginnings is offered for the SSR deal. Source: I just bought 200 points at SSR direct and am getting $4000 back in Magical Begnnings :blush: . SSR is not eligible for the other discounts (like $1000 Disney Visa or $500 D23), but it is eligible for Magical Beginnings.
 
I assume you mean Magical Beginnings? If so, yes, Magical Beginnings is offered for the SSR deal. Source: I just bought 200 points at SSR direct and am getting $4000 back in Magical Begnnings :blush: . SSR is not eligible for the other discounts (like $1000 Disney Visa or $500 D23), but it is eligible for Magical Beginnings.
Yes thank you. I'm taking out my extra M now :)
 
So if you cherry pick data then SSR and OKW are middle of the pack? 🤣

Assuming the best possible starting location from only SSR and OKW rooms seems a little dishonest. Add at least a few minutes to the average for the people having to use the internal bus loop and then run the data without Disney Springs as an option, which is obviously doing a lot of heavy lifting too as they are Disney Springs resorts, but most people only care about proximity to the parks. My head math says they are now bottom of the list for time to the parks or very close to it. Poly may still be the last though.

But the Poly Monorail time to Epcot seems a bit long. Personally I would rather walk to the TTC from anywhere at Poly than take the monorail the long way around. We did it from the Poly Tower last month and it was still great, and I think it was much less than 30 minutes. You could alternatively assume the best poly location for travel like you did with SSR/OKW and assume they are staying in the closest room to the TTC for the Epcot monorail times, and take the express monorail time only vs the resort monorail for MK.

Then you get into the argument about "feeling" the magic. It just seems so much nicer to be able to walk to, or ride a boat/monorail to a park. Even if the time isn't that much faster
No, I did not cherry pick. Those are the areas I stay at in SSR and OKW.

Regarding Poly I added that comment to the end if staying at Pago or Moorea.

Rerun the numbers and show me how wrong I am.
 
I know I'm about to get a lot of hate for this, but I think the whole monorail resort argument is overrated from an efficiency standpoint. Sure you're close to MK and the monorail is a magical way to get to the parks, but that whole TTC transfer to EPCOT is a killer. You can get to EPCOT quicker from SSR and OKW.

I will take it even a little further. Pound for pound if you consider average travel times to all 4 parks and Disney Springs from each resort using the most efficient Disney transportation, SSR (preferred) and OKW (near hospitality) rank higher than many beloved or more "premium" resorts.

View attachment 1049221

For Poly the numbers improve if you're staying in Moorea or Pago and you walk to the TTC.

The beauty of the variety of resorts we have to pick from (and the fact that you'll be back sooner than later) is you can tailor your park visits to the resort you're staying at. For example when we stay at AKV we tend to spend more time at Animal Kingdom park. When at Riviera, EPCOT and Studios. Etc. That is not to say we don't go to Magic Kingdom when we stay at AKV or we don't go to EPCOT when staying at VGF - it's just that we don't focus on it, because of the ~30 minute transportation.
 
Does anyone get a thank you letter with mickey and minnie driving in the mail everytime they look at a guide. I appreciate the gesture, but I have like 10 of them at home 🤣🤣

Got a pic? I have only gotten one card in the mail from a guide but I don't think it looked like that. He sent it after I purchased points, along with some stickers and a pin.

I know I'm about to get a lot of hate for this, but I think the whole monorail resort argument is overrated from an efficiency standpoint. Sure you're close to MK and the monorail is a magical way to get to the parks, but that whole TTC transfer to EPCOT is a killer. You can get to EPCOT quicker from SSR and OKW.

I will take it even a little further. Pound for pound if you consider average travel times to all 4 parks and Disney Springs from each resort using the most efficient Disney transportation, SSR (preferred) and OKW (near hospitality) rank higher than many beloved or more "premium" resorts.

View attachment 1049221

For Poly the numbers improve if you're staying in Moorea or Pago and you walk to the TTC.

Dang, my beloved WL is at the bottom. I guess it's a good thing my kid loves buses. 🤣 Seriously though, I tolerate the buses for the 3 other parks for the lovely boat ride to MK. The monorail isn't a big selling point for me because of the transfer when going to Epcot. As well as the fact that easy monorail access to resorts makes them more likely to have non-guests wandering the property all the time making it hectic.
 
great, and I think it was much less than 30 minutes. You could alternatively assume the best poly location for travel like you did with SSR/OKW and assume they are staying in the closest room to the TTC for the Epcot monorail times, and take the express monorail time only vs the resort monorail for MK.

Then you get into the argument about "feeling" the magic. It just seems so much nicer to be able to walk to, or ride a boat/monorail to a park. Even if the time isn't that much faster

Not to mention. My kids think riding the monorail is part of the rides "magic". Taking the bus is not.
 
Efficiency yes. Magical no.

Being able to leave a sleeping child in a stroller and board the monorail, boat or skyliner is where the magic is rather than removing said child and then breaking down the stroller to board the bus.
If I am alone with my granddaughters, it’s not physically possible for me to lift that double stroller into the bus let alone keep an eye on twins that wander in different directions. I own Poly, VGF, BLT & BRV (you do have to wait for the bigger boat, but it works). If I had to take a bus alone, I’d probably stay home.
 
If I am alone with my granddaughters, it’s not physically possible for me to lift that double stroller into the bus let alone keep an eye on twins that wander in different directions. I own Poly, VGF, BLT & BRV (you do have to wait for the bigger boat, but it works). If I had to take a bus alone, I’d probably stay home.
Your resorts sound perfect for your situation at the moment!!!

This certainly allows you to spend some precious time with your DGDs :)
 
No, I did not cherry pick. Those are the areas I stay at in SSR and OKW.

Regarding Poly I added that comment to the end if staying at Pago or Moorea.

Rerun the numbers and show me how wrong I am.
Only using the most positive travel-time rooms for some resorts but not others is by definition cherry-picking 🤣

And ok, here you go! For park travel time SSR is the worst and OKW is now bottom 3. Assuming that the average internal bus loop there only adds 5 minutes to the trip, which could be very generous already. I would probably think it actually adds around 10 minutes and those resorts would be waaaay at the bottom then. Some Int Bus trips will be much longer say 20 minutes or so, but some will be staying at the preferred rooms as you say and be 0 so that should help keep it from getting too crazy.

*** Even though technically AKV has and Internal Bus loop, everyone has to take it either on the pick up or drop off, so I assumed that AKV number was built into the data already and did not add additional time there. Since it is built into the normal bus route every time

1771429685392.png
 
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I've got a case of add-on itis and tempted to get my blue card.

I see at a lot of value in SSR as direct SAP. I don't mind staying at SSR. I like reasonably priced 1 or 2 bedrooms (not studios). I would like to try CFW once. I'd like to stay at the new Lakeshore product once we know more. I'm East Coast based and would primarily travel to WDW. I own BWV resale and won't use those points anywhere else - and have gotten good value with standard/resort view bookings.

I've read through all 40+ pages so far. I'd argue that many are not accounting for the time value of money and arrive at their assumptions of you can just buy one of the other direct properties for the same price.

Here is how I would look at things differently:
  • SSR comparison needs to be done at 200 points, there is a huge value of stretching that you don't have at RIV/PVB/VDH. If you could afford 150 PVB at $29,750 after MB you can afford 200 SSR at $30,000
  • I'd take the $20/point Magic Beginnings. This is an advantage to SSR as you pay less upfront and get the same back
  • Expiry years - I'd give $1/year upfront benefit for each additional year longer than SSR. Each $1 of value in 2054 (difference between point rental rate and dues) is only worth 19c today at a 6% discount rate (1/(1.06^28). By 2074 each dollar of benefit is worth 6 cents in 2026. This $1 per year gives roughly a $10 value/year in the difference in point value and dues
  • Dues - using an annuity formula, i'd value each $1 of additional dues per year to be worth $14 today.

Here are my results:
OptionCost $ (w/ MB and all incentives)Cost / PtExpiry$/Point Adj for Expiry ($1/year)Dues$/Point Adj for Dues (x14)Adjusted Price with Dues
SSR-15024,000160205409.190160
SSR-20030,000150205409.190150
RIV-15028,1001872070-169.46+4175
RIV-20037,3001872070-169.46+4174
PVB-15029,7501982066-128.33-12174
PVB-20039,7001992066-128.33-12174
VDH-15027,5001832074-2010.54+19182
VDH-20036,9001852074-2010.54+19183
AUL-15027,0501802062-810.96+25197


Takeaways
  • SSR 200 is a great value and about 16% cheaper per point than RIV/PVB
  • RIV/PVB are priced equally once you adjust for dues
  • VDH and AUL seemed like a slight increase in buy-in for 150/blue card but the higher dues actually make them the most expensive on the list if you don't actually plan to go stay in California or Hawaii.

We all know there is time value money. Not everyone will be investing that upfront savings.

I would counter your time value with immediate loss of value of SSR vs Poly. There will also be more loss of value on SSR than Poly in the long run as well. So please take that into account just as you would time value of money.

If SSR is what you want then it makes sense to buy it.
 
TVOM has nothing to do with whether or not the money is invested in the interim. It is simply the fact that a dollar today buys more than a dollar ten years from now, because inflation is a thing.
 
Only using the most positive travel-time rooms for some resorts but not others is by definition cherry-picking 🤣

And ok, here you go! For park travel time SSR is the worst and OKW is now bottom 3. Assuming that the average internal bus loop there only adds 5 minutes to the trip, which could be very generous already. I would probably think it actually adds around 10 minutes and those resorts would be waaaay at the bottom then. Some Int Bus trips will be much longer say 20 minutes or so, but some will be staying at the preferred rooms as you say and be 0 so that should help keep it from getting too crazy.

*** Even though technically AKV has and Internal Bus loop, everyone has to take it either on the pick up or drop off, so I assumed that AKV number was built into the data already and did not add additional time there. Since it is built into the normal bus route every time

View attachment 1049232
Add in waiting for the next to come because the first is full. Add in waiting for ecv’s to be loaded up. Add in bus being late for whatever reason they run late for. Add in bus drivers making wrong turns. These problems are much less or non existent on Skyliner and Monorail.
 
Only using the most positive travel-time rooms for some resorts but not others is by definition cherry-picking 🤣

And ok, here you go! For park travel time SSR is the worst and OKW is now bottom 3. Assuming that the average internal bus loop there only adds 5 minutes to the trip, which could be very generous already. I would probably think it actually adds around 10 minutes and those resorts would be waaaay at the bottom then. Some Int Bus trips will be much longer say 20 minutes or so, but some will be staying at the preferred rooms as you say and be 0 so that should help keep it from getting too crazy.

*** Even though technically AKV has and Internal Bus loop, everyone has to take it either on the pick up or drop off, so I assumed that AKV number was built into the data already and did not add additional time there. Since it is built into the normal bus route every time

View attachment 1049232
I fully disclosed the methodology and locations. You just removed Disney Springs and added an arbitrary 5 minutes...but sure... I'm the one cherry-picking.
 

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