Some random thoughts on discounts

[Masonmj84]

Just visited the Disney site for the time overlapping our stay (Dec. 10-16) to see what resorts still have free dining. Turns out all the deluxe resorts have at least one room category available, with most having multiple room categories available. Of the mods, POR & POFQ are gone with CSR & CBR still having availability across multiple room categories. Of the values, POP is gone with all 3 All-Stars still having availability and AOA still having availaility in suites.

This essentially confirms my suspicion that free dining affects mod & value resort bookings a lot more than deluxe bookings (not surprising, since free dining is a relatively better deal at mods & values). Alternatively stated, I'm having a hard time seeing how Disney expects to adequately fill its deluxe rooms during the time we plan to visit without additional promotion(s).

Which brings me to the next topic - room discounts. Count me among those who was somewhat surprised and dissappionted when no GP room discounts were announced today. Now I'm wondering if no GP room discounts are intended to be announed for fall and that they may wait until the end of September to announce AP discounts (given that the current late summer AP discount and fall FD offers don't expire until then).

It's looking like Disney is taking an increasingly "wait and see" attitude with respect to room discounts. I think they're seriously hoping that they won't have to offer any room discounts at all (other than military and FL resident) and that free dining will do all of the heavy lifting for them. But I just don't see that happening for most of their deluxe resorts.

In fact, I believe free dining makes people less inclined to book deluxe than they would without it (because free dining is such a relatively bigger % discount of a mod or value vacation package, it makes those resorts relatively more attractive vis a vis deluxe). But maybe Disney is banking on people eventually booking deluxe out of desperation once all of the mod & value free dining rooms are gone and no other significant discounts are available. Given their rack rates and the state of the economy, I just don't see this happening to the extent they're hoping for.

In short, I just don't see how Disney is going to avoid offering room discounts to more than just the military and FL residents.

 

[ErinsMommy]

I personally am really hoping for a room discount of some sort, ANY sort, for our February stay. But with FLE opening up, I question whether they'll need to offer them at all to get the majority of their rooms filled.

In meantime I've asked DD to add that request to her nightly prayers since it won't hurt. Even if it doesn't help it sure is cute to hear her actually do it.

 

[Hitchhiking Ghost]

I would say that you've made some very good and most likely accurate observations. I would add to the "wait and see" mentality for offering fall discounts that you can't ignore that first week of December is the grand opening of the Fantasyland Expansion followed by Pop Warner. So Disney has a lot going on right off the bat in December that they may feel they can delay implementing any discounts until the free dining shakes out.

I have a feeling that for many Deluxe Resort users that cost isn't an issue. Sort of the "if you have to ask how much it costs, then you probably can't afford it". We are definitely in the moderate budget category and really can't justify spending more than twice as much to stay at the Poly then POR. So full free dining is what got us to come down this year instead of waiting another year or possibly two. My guess is for many Deluxe users the cost isn't a factor and if a discount does come along, then great, a nice little bonus, but a discount isn't the make or break it decision. For some the discount might be the difference between a moderate or deluxe or even if you go period, but for Deluxe users, based on what I read, it seems like they book and if a discount come out, great, if not, well we are still going.

 

[ErinsMommy]

My guess is for many Deluxe users the cost isn't a factor and if a discount does come along, then great, a nice little bonus, but a discount isn't the make or break it decision. For some the discount might be the difference between a moderate or deluxe or even if you go period, but for Deluxe users, based on what I read, it seems like they book and if a discount come out, great, if not, well we are still going.

I'm not so sure how true that is -- some people (like myself) only book a deluxe to celebrate a special event and try to 'treat themselves'. Personally speaking while I'm still trying to save every penny I can to afford this, there's a chance that with no discount at all I'll have to switch to a mod.

 

[Simba's Girl]

I have a feeling that for many Deluxe Resort users that cost isn't an issue. Sort of the "if you have to ask how much it costs, then you probably can't afford it". My guess is for many Deluxe users the cost isn't a factor and if a discount does come along, then great, a nice little bonus, but a discount isn't the make or break it decision. For some the discount might be the difference between a moderate or deluxe or even if you go period, but for Deluxe users, based on what I read, it seems like they book and if a discount come out, great, if not, well we are still going.

Not true for us at all! We are a family of 5 and for the most part our choices are limited to a "family suite" at the values or a deluxe (not counting the trundle rooms at POR, which I see as a non-option).

Would go offsite before we had to be forced into a family suite due to cost.

We are probably in the "still going" if no discount category but would shorten our usual 10 day stay by a few days if it came to that (it won't)

TBH that assumption about the deluxe consumer is simply not true for families like mine (families of 5, that is)

 

[Masonmj84]

We are definitely in the moderate budget category and really can't justify spending more than twice as much to stay at the Poly then POR. So full free dining is what got us to come down this year instead of waiting another year or possibly two. My guess is for many Deluxe users the cost isn't a factor and if a discount does come along, then great, a nice little bonus, but a discount isn't the make or break it decision. For some the discount might be the difference between a moderate or deluxe or even if you go period, but for Deluxe users, based on what I read, it seems like they book and if a discount come out, great, if not, well we are still going.

I'm in the usually stay moderate category and am currently booked at POR with FD.

Normally, I'd be very happy with this because, IMO, FD at a mod is great bang for your buck (especially at POR, where all the rooms are newly refurbished).

However, on this trip we're really tempted to stay deluxe (specifically Poly/BC split), in large part due to the convenience factor. We have tickets to MVMCP and would also like to see Illuminations. We also have several early morning character breakfasts planned. On the flip side, we have young kids who don't handle sleep deprivation well. So I like the idea of letting them fall asleep in their stroller as opposed to waking them up while trying to cram onto a packed bus after 10 pm. And being closer to the parks allows us to sleep in a bit later than we'd otherwise get to. Moreover, it's a very special trip with my parents (and DM does not like getting up early).

But without some good room discounts, I simply cannot justify the price increase over my current deal (free dining just does not entice me enough to pay the huge difference in rack rates - if anything, it makes me less inclined to do so because a mod+FD seems like such the relatively better deal than deluxe+FD).

Put another way, without a room discount that beats FD, I'll stick with what I have and take cabs when necessary. It won't be as dreamy as staying deluxe, but I simply cannot justify that price difference.

 

[Tltorrez]

I have a feeling that for many Deluxe Resort users that cost isn't an issue. Sort of the "if you have to ask how much it costs, then you probably can't afford it".

I don't think this is necessarily true. Unless you fall into the Mitt Romney billionaire class cost is still an issue. We prefer to stay Deluxe. However, We took a last-minute trip last year when I got an unexpected bonus. We couldn't swing the Deluxe without a discount so we stayed at the Dolphin (with a Discount). This trip we are staying Deluxe with or without a discount, but that's because we planned and saved to do that. Not because we don't think about the costs. And like most people, a discount will affect the extras we can do. I suspect we're fairly typical of Deluxe guests.

 

[Tltorrez]

Regarding the discounts - I was not expecting discounts today for the simple fact that the rumor mill has been completely dead. CMs hadn't heard anything. Until today. Two people posted that CMs said that AP and FL will be released by the end of the month.

To be honest, I was a little surprised by this. It's consistent with last year but not consistent with the last round of discounts where they released GP first and the deeper (but more limited) later. However, I'm inclined to believe these rumors (though CMs are often wrong). it does raise one potential concern though. Last year AP discounts were released then GP was released much later than expected and most of Oct was left out. Since the whole cycle is already running later, if they're following last year's model, I think there's a good chance that Oct will get skipped again. No real evidence for that; just a hunch but it's worth keeping in mind. Last year we bailed on waiting and took a discount at Dolphin instead. I'm glad we did. This year we're going in Dec and we have APs so I'm hopeful.

 

[luvallprincesses]

We are one of those families who can/will only stay deluxe if a 30%+ room discount comes out. We are not big fans of the dining plan so we thought we would try deluxe for the first time and pay meals OOP since we do not want to do TS every day. Right now, we are booked at the Dolphin with a discount unless/until a room discount comes out for the week after Thanksgiving. Price is the #1 consideration for us to stay at a deluxe.

 

[CraigInPA]

I think many families, mine included, have reasons for staying at the deluxe resorts that transcend the "made of money and don't care if there is a discount" theory. In our case, both of us have mobility issues related to a bad car accident we had in 2008. Standing room only buses (so common in the value resort category) are killers for us. We gladly pay a huge premium to stay at the Poly for the convenience of the monorail and the relatively empty buses on the Poly-GF-CR routes.

I'd agree on the math of the value of FD versus a room discount.

The value resorts free dining is QS dining. (Using All Stars at $150/night as my example) With 2 people in the room, a 30% room discount offsets the value of QS dining. With 3 people in the room, QS dining would require a 50% discount on the room to be even. With 4 people in the room, you'd need 67% off the room. At 5 people in the room, you'd need an 83% room discount!

The deluxe resorts get regular dining, which is more than twice as much as quick service dining. (Using Poly at $450/night as my example) When you have a room of 2 people at a deluxe resort, the value of DDP is equal to 25% off the room. The value of DDP for 3 in the room is equal to 37% off the room. The value of DDP for 4 in the room is equal to 50% off the room. At 5 people in the room, you'd need a 61% discount on the room to break even.

So, for families with more than 2 in the room, the usual 30% off the room isn't as good as free dining. But, for parties of two in the room, a discount off the room at 30% or more is always better.