Sold today- Cabins at Fort Wilderness resale contract

[Mouseforward]

Is it the consensus with everyone that Cabins will merge with Lakeshore Lodge? I want to buy Cabins just for the fact I can bring both my dogs with me instead of paying someone to stay at my house 3 times a year.

Only DVD knows

 

[Brian Noble]

Is it the consensus with everyone that Cabins will merge with Lakeshore Lodge?

No.

I happen to think it is more likely than not, but there are plenty of reasons to think the opposite. Until it is announced: Those who know don't tell; those who tell don't know.

 

[drg6654]

No.

I happen to think it is more likely than not, but there are plenty of reasons to think the opposite. Until it is announced: Those who know don't tell; those who tell don't know.

Copy that!!

 

[BrianLo]

DVCRM Derrick D. agrees with this point based on the last podcast. He was a guide and has decades of DVC experience.

I too have been listening to the podcast for years. I like them all and I think they’d probably agree; Whenever they’ve tried to guess at what DVC will do with sales, it’s usually been the opposite.

They’ve been completely off on launch pricing, associations, etc etc for a number of years now on their far out predictions.

They could be right this time, but they are guessing like the rest of us.

 

[Mouseforward]

I too have been listening to the podcast for years. I like them all and I think they’d probably agree; Whenever they’ve tried to guess at what DVC will do with sales, it’s usually been the opposite.

They’ve been completely off on launch pricing, associations, etc etc for a number of years now on their far out predictions.

They could be right this time, but they are guessing like the rest of us.

They were correct on Poly Tower being the same association when everyone else was saying separate.

Now they are always "wrong" on pricing and point charts.

 

[BrianLo]

They were correct on Poly Tower being the same association when everyone else was saying separate.

Now they are always "wrong" on pricing and point charts.

Define everyone.

 

[drg6654]

Define everyone.

View attachment 984418

Wasn't trying to start an argument amongst everyone just curious about what everyone opinion is. Im leaning towards buying the cabins at the end of year to avoid annual dues since my UY is Dec and will sell the next two years anyways since we are knocking our bucket list off of Paris in 26 and Tokyo/Shanghai in 27.

 

[Sandisw]

Is it the consensus with everyone that Cabins will merge with Lakeshore Lodge? I want to buy Cabins just for the fact I can bring both my dogs with me instead of paying someone to stay at my house 3 times a year.

Definitely no consensus.

 

[AnnaKristoff2013]

It may be DVC's fist "timeshare horror story"

Copying the Westgate Model (resale restrictions) inevitably leads to Westgate results.

 

[Genie+]

This is where I get lost in determining the correct way to assign a per-point value. If the points are rented or MMB'ed, they are still included in the denominator; you also still pay the MF on the points. So, the best offer for 150 points is $191 a point, renting each set/year of points at $20 ( and not paying taxes) nets you less than $800 per year of points rented. So, in the hypothetical 3 years, the lowest per point is about $175 - where are people getting a lower value?

Earlier on someone mentioned 150pts CFW at $175pp after MB. For Aug, Sept, Oct and Dec UY, that would be 2024’s points.

The $135pp CFW resale contract was stripped out to Aug 2027 (I’m guessing it has a reservation within the next few weeks that borrow and also use 2026’s points?). While the seller could’ve been smart and resisted paying 2025’s dues, it’s very unusual to be getting a credit for next year’s dues so likely the buyer will be paying both 2026 and 2027 dues… just like the direct buyer.

Going back to the direct contract, selling 2025 and 2026 points would bring it to the same point total of the $135pp resale contract. The annual points loaded Aug 2027 would be the first available for their personal use (and both having the potential to borrow those points for reservations in their AUG 2026 UY.

^If all of this is correct, some math:

+$6,000 the difference between 150pts Direct @$175pp and Resale @$135pp
+$750 Direct would only pay 5 months more of dues than the resale contract
——— Total $6,750

But…

‘25 & ‘26 points still exist on that Direct contract, yet already gone on that Resale.

The Direct contract has them to rent out (resale was stripped). The easy route would be $16pp through a broker, though more money could be made by spec renting at $20pp or even $25pp. Those 3 scenarios:

A) $4,800 = 300pts x $16pp - resulting in Direct costing $1,950 more than resale

B) $6,000 = 300pts x $20pp - resulting in Direct costing $750 more than resale

C) $7,500 = 300pts x $25pp - resulting in Direct costing $750 LESS than resale

Direct can also churn the full $29,000 through credit card points/bonuses ($26k plus you can still churn the MB $3k prior to the rebate. Resale limits this ability to max $5k or $7k depending on broker.

That would leave the gap between B and resale only a few hundred dollars.

While C is a clear winner - who wouldn’t want to spend less than resale yet get blue card and unrestricted points for the next 4+ decades?

Even looking at the final costs of A, I think many people would be happy to pay less than $2k extra for almost 50 years of blue card perks and 100% unrestricted points during that time (eta - especially when the alternative is being locked into one room size at one resort).

 

[Potigant]

Earlier on someone mentioned 150pts CFW at $175pp after MB. For Aug, Sept, Oct and Dec UY, that would be 2024’s points.

The $135pp CFW resale contract was stripped out to Aug 2027 (I’m guessing it has a reservation within the next few weeks that borrow and also use 2026’s points?). While the seller could’ve been smart and resisted paying 2025’s dues, it’s very unusual to be getting a credit for next year’s dues so likely the buyer will be paying both 2026 and 2027 dues… just like the direct buyer.

Going back to the direct contract, selling 2025 and 2026 points would bring it to the same point total of the $135pp resale contract. The annual points loaded Aug 2027 would be the first available for their personal use (and both having the potential to borrow those points for reservations in their AUG 2026 UY.

^If all of this is correct, some math:

+$6,000 the difference between 150pts Direct @$175pp and Resale @$135pp
+$750 Direct would only pay 5 months more of dues than the resale contract
——— Total $6,750

But…

‘25 & ‘26 points still exist on that Direct contract, yet already gone on that Resale.

The Direct contract has them to rent out (resale was stripped). The easy route would be $16pp through a broker, though more money could be made by spec renting at $20pp or even $25pp. Those 3 scenarios:

A) $4,800 = 300pts x $16pp - resulting in Direct costing $1,950 more than resale

B) $6,000 = 300pts x $20pp - resulting in Direct costing $750 more than resale

C) $7,500 = 300pts x $25pp - resulting in Direct costing $750 LESS than resale

Direct can also churn the full $29,000 through credit card points/bonuses ($26k plus you can still churn the MB $3k prior to the rebate. Resale limits this ability to max $5k or $7k depending on broker.

That would leave the gap between B and resale only a few hundred dollars.

While C is a clear winner - who wouldn’t want to spend less than resale yet get blue card and unrestricted points for the next 4+ decades?

Even looking at the final costs of A, I think many people would be happy to pay less than $2k extra for almost 50 years of blue card perks and 100% unrestricted points during that time (eta - especially when the alternative is being locked into one room size at one resort).

Happy until they get their dues statement, and each one after that.

 

[Genie+]

Happy until they get their dues statement, and each one after that.

Both cases Unless resale seller paid the next 2 years of dues, they’re both in the same boat. At least with Direct they’d actually get the points those years.

 

[Potigant]

Both cases Unless resale seller paid the next 2 years of dues, they’re both in the same boat. At least with Direct they’d actually get the points those years.

For sure. Not a critique of your analysis. More tongue in cheek about being “happy” in either case. I’m sure there are many happy CFW owners

 

[Cfabar1]

My personal theory is CFW started as an accounting trick...

And, as DVD/DVC has started having more pressure on them with sales (recent sales calls have started mentioning DVC) they are now likely feeling some actual pressure to sell this thing...

What that means for LSL and associations, though I initially didn't think so, I think it is likely to be rolled into the Palmetto Trust with CFW... I think that may hurt LSL in the end....

 

[Mouseforward]

I think that may hurt LSL in the end....

I do not see how, more variety will help sales. The average buyer never saw the risk of the Poly bungalow point sinks , and the cabins are the opposite of point sinks.