So many resorts, so many members now...

[vakamalua]

DVC is so NOT the product we bought in 1995! We still use it in ways that work for us, often with the inconvenience of planning way too far in advance. We know the time is coming soon when it just won't work for us anymore.

 

[Marionnette]

What do you see as the main catalyst of that? Renting? I think we would need to see far more folks using their 11 month priority than we do now.

The conventional wisdom imparted to renters is to be ready to pull the trigger at or before 11 months. Most of them want studios and overall, they typically turn their noses up at SSR and OKW. That’s because most of them are looking to “stay at a deluxe resort for moderate prices” and they don’t view those stand-alone resorts as “deluxe”. I can’t tell you how many times I’ve seen “can you get a studio for MM/DD - MM/DD anywhere but SSR or OKW”. While I don’t share their viewpoint, it is what their perceptions are. And once one of those “anywhere but” resorts is booked for a renter, it’s not going to change at 7 months.

Renting also places stress on the 7-month window for those latecomers who are looking to stay at the same “anywhere but” places that SSR owners with SAPs are trying to book. And again, once booked they are not going to change or cancel.

Like it or not, renting is gaining popularity. And it is affecting what owners can book inside the 7-month window.

Now, couple that with the number of people who purchase resale at those “anywhere but” resorts. Most of them are buying (and paying a premium price for 2042 resorts) because that’s where they want to stay. They are purchasing specifically for the purpose of being able to book those resorts during the 11-7 window, otherwise they would be buying cheaper SAPs at resorts with longer contracts and more reasonable MFs. They’re not expecting to switch at 7 months unless it’s for an even more desirable “anything but” resort. And those owners are increasing in number every day.

I don’t think that we will reach a point where nothing will be available at 7 months but I think we are already seeing the impact to some degree. There’s another thread where the OP could not get BLT or BWV for late May. MAY!!!!! A typically slower time for DVC where there should have been at least p/g views at BWV and lake views at BLT, even for studios.

 

[Donna M]

This never happened before. I'm annoyed right now, because I want to stay somewhere other than OKW in June. My use year is June, so I am going to be limited with how early I can "walk" (only 3 days, since I want to arrive Jun 4th).

Your use year doesn't affect walking. You still have 7 months out from July 4 just like everyone else.

Edit to add after reading future posts. I guess it is more complicated than I thought.

 

[moericus]

I'm curious about these waitlist concerns and Disney's cash vs. DVC blocks in resorts.

Are we at DVC capacity around the world? Is Disney slow walking their DVC commitments?

 

[Dean Marino]

Deleted

 

[jo-jo]

Your use year doesn't affect walking. You still have 7 months out from July 4 just like everyone else.

Perhaps I'm doing something wrong, but every time I try to book a trip crossing the use year, I'm blocked.

In order to walk a reservation, I don't believe 4 days of walking would do PP much good . They spoke of a June 4 trip with a June use year.

Just to add when we bought SSR, downtown disney was half shopping / half clubs. I thought the idea of fireworks every night was great. Within a year, everything started changing to all stores.

 

[CarolynFH]

Deleted. Can’t figure out how to explain why walking across UY is much more complicated than walking in one UY because of having to use points from 2 different UY.

 

[SarahInMN]

couple that with the number of people who purchase resale at those “anywhere but” resorts. Most of them are buying (and paying a premium price for 2042 resorts) because that’s where they want to stay. They are purchasing specifically for the purpose of being able to book those resorts during the 11-7 window,

We bought BCV resale in 2010 and VGF direct in 2013 - so we didn’t pay a premium by current standards. We did though buy both with the intent to stay there and use our 11 month window.

We never expected or planned to use our points elsewhere although we have used them for VGC once. We generally book at 10 or 11 months to get our 1 bedroom. We knew going in that we’d have to book that far out for F&W.

I know some owners were sold points with the sales pitch of “you can stay anywhere” but by the same token they understood (or should have) the 7 month vs 11 month window.

Buy where you want to stay rings true for a reason.

 

[Chuck S]

Perhaps I'm doing something wrong, but every time I try to book a trip crossing the use year, I'm blocked.

The website does not allow you to book reservations that cross use years, you would need to make two reservations and then have them merged by member services. I also have a June use year, and occasionally have a May-June trip. Back when all booking was done through calling MS, it was pretty smooth, but now that the system changed, it is a pain...and it doesn't play nice with fastpasses bookings, either.

Deleted. Can’t figure out how to explain why walking across UY is much more complicated than walking in one UY because of having to use points from 2 different UY.

Walking is really only effective at your home resort, using your 11 month window, and not crossing a use year. 7 month walking to change resorts gives you really no better odds than anyone else, considering another owner, using the 11 month window, may have grabbed the room in the middle of your walk.

 

[JETSDAD]

Walking is really only effective at your home resort, using your 11 month window, and not crossing a use year. 7 month walking to change resorts gives you really no better odds than anyone else, considering another owner, using the 11 month window, may have grabbed the room in the middle of your walk.

It does increase your odds as it gets you ahead of non-owners. Also, most owners are not waiting until the last minute at the 7 month mark to make a reservation (yes it happens but for the most part they will have booked before then). Absolutely not a guarantee but it certainly does increase your odds.

 

[The Jackal]

And probably not just SSR, but Vero as well. I think the whole concept of buy here, stay elsewhere is not in the best interest of the purchaser or other owners, it is a drag on the system as a whole...and yes, I know DVC was marketed that way, unlike OKW. Early purchasers, like us in 1992, were never promised new resorts, or a right to trade into them, OKW was the only DVC resort at the time...with Newport Beach announced in 1994, and Vero quietly rumored and opened in 1995. I think DVC thought Vero would be a different type of draw, and members would by both...OKW for the park vacations and Vero for the beach vacations, and expected fairly minimal trading between the two, except for the Holidays (remember the Lottery system). So far, I have stayed at OKW for every trip, except for one stay in a Poly studio. That is not to say I don't want to try BLT sometime, but I do love my OKW. Boardwalk and Beach Club just aren't that appealing to me...and mostly for those owners, OKW doesn't appeal to them.

Probably not just SSR and Vero, also HHI and Aulani. All those points can be used at a WDW resort at 7 months. They are cheap and lots of people buy them to use only at WDW. Take these and the points for the Bungalows and Cabins and at 7 months almost everything is gone most of the year, for studios that is.

 

[lmhall2000]

It seems the big caveat is the type of room you are looking for...I find the rooms at Riviera that only fit two were designed to help with so many parties of two booking studios? I am hot/cold on buying resale- no way I look at buying direct (given today’s stats) make it feasible as an option. We will rent 2 BR 90% of the time- it seems a high point contract for a low price would make the most sense for us staying mostly in mid-September...but, then I look at just renting and then- that makes more sense...so many variables that can change make it even tougher to decide. I think this climate Disney put buyers in is sketchy- I think it will slow contract sales and something must give. I’ll just wait and see- seems I’ve been in this holding pattern for 15 years- not sure it’ll ever be a good time to buy. Hmmm.

 

[Disney1fan2002]

Thank you for your responses, I am glad I'm not the only one who has noticed a major change with availability. That said, for those who say "buy where you want to stay." Thank you. I did and I do, for the most part. I love OKW. We also have a BCV contract, because we loved SAB, and wanted to access that. We stayed there ONCE in all the years we have owned it. The resort is great, but I found I liked the peace and quiet of OKW matched with the lower points with the bigger rooms. It's just, I would like to stay somewhere else for a change, and I should be able to do that! Granted, in 1992, DVC was not selling "stay anywhere with your ownership" But let me tell you, by the time we purchased BCV in 2002, that is exactly what they were selling us on. I would always book at the 11 months window, and occasionally, I could book a last minute trip and have availability. That is why the idea of not being able to book at a number of resorts for June at exactly the 7 month window is disturbing.

As far as anyone who doesn't understand how walking a reservation from May into June with a June UY. To make this short and less complicated of an explanation, I don't have any 2019 points available. I need to use my 2020 points that I receive on Jun 1. I can't start my walk in May, because I would have to borrow the points from 2020, then, those points would expire on May 30th. I can not then bank them back into my original use year.

 

[Brian Noble]

I suspect at least part of the problem is that fewer points are going unused, for a variety of reasons that mostly have to do with the continued economic growth. Other points-based timeshare systems have also seen increased difficulty in getting in-demand times/places, and more times/places are in demand.

 

[Philsfan77]

When my DH and I purchased back in 2002, we were paying for a Disney trip with the 3 kids yearly. My youngest was going to be 3 in 2003, hence he would become a 5th guest. Going forward, we were looking at having to rent 2 rooms every time we went to WDW, because the rooms only slept 4. (this was pre-family suites). When we sat down with the salesperson, he of course told us we were the family DVC was built for.We went yearly or even sometimes twice a year. We buy in at today's cost and we get years of vacations while the regular resort room prices go up and up. He was correct. My husband did the math and flipped it every way he could to see if there would be a way for us to enjoy WDW as frequently as we were going, and buying DVC was in fact money saver.

Little did we know waaaay back then, that Disney would just keep building DVC resorts. The amount of members we are competing with for rooms is ridiculous. You can no longer decide on a spur of the moment trip and find any rooms outside of SSR. It is so frustrating that if you want to stay at a resort beside your home, you have to walk a reservation at 7 months. This never happened before. I'm annoyed right now, because I want to stay somewhere other than OKW in June. My use year is June, so I am going to be limited with how early I can "walk" (only 3 days, since I want to arrive Jun 4th).

Any other early owners frustrated with how hard it is to get reservations these days?

Personally no, but we aren't able to book studio's due to size of family, so we miss a lot of the issues that people looking for studio's face. I think you will be fine swapping out of OKW though for your time frame that you are looking though, unless you're looking only for standard views.

 

[Yensid67]

I don't mind staying at any of them, so whatever is available is fine with me, even if it means switching rooms multiple times during our trips.

 

[jerseyduke]

The issue is not purely so many members and so many points, it is an imbalance of 'in demand points'.
People buy SAPs just for their name. And they are often SSR points for value reason.

SSR, not to knock the resort or anything, is not the most popular, so the biggest resort point wise produces the biggest number of non-demanded points. If SSR was in high demand and people did not want to switch out as often as they do, the 7 month issue would not be as desperate. Because of location and the sky liner, (assuming no more mishaps, some of those 911 transcripts were not very appealing), DRR brings in a lot of new members, and a lot of new points, but really wont do anything to the 7 month mark. People are not going to want to switch as much, and just as many will want to be switching in.

It comes down to for every 10 ppl wanting to switch out of SSR, 1 person may want to switch in. If every resort were in equal demand (idealistic as it is), the 7 month window would be a lot easier. Throw in the Bungalows and Cabins, and that just makes it all the worse. The Poly bungalows basically created 1 million points that people are trying to swap out with.

 

[Donna M]

Maybe with the refurbishment of SSR it will become more desirable and that will help with availability.

We are a small part of that SSR problem. We bought there 15 years ago and have only stayed there 3-4 times, but we never compete for studios.

 

[CanadaDisney05]

The issue is not purely so many members and so many points, it is an imbalance of 'in demand points'.
People buy SAPs just for their name. And they are often SSR points for value reason.

SSR, not to knock the resort or anything, is not the most popular, so the biggest resort point wise produces the biggest number of non-demanded points. If SSR was in high demand and people did not want to switch out as often as they do, the 7 month issue would not be as desperate. Because of location and the sky liner, (assuming no more mishaps, some of those 911 transcripts were not very appealing), DRR brings in a lot of new members, and a lot of new points, but really wont do anything to the 7 month mark. People are not going to want to switch as much, and just as many will want to be switching in.

It comes down to for every 10 ppl wanting to switch out of SSR, 1 person may want to switch in. If every resort were in equal demand (idealistic as it is), the 7 month window would be a lot easier. Throw in the Bungalows and Cabins, and that just makes it all the worse. The Poly bungalows basically created 1 million points that people are trying to swap out with.

I agree with this. I wonder if they ever added the skyliner to OKW and SSR, if that would make a big difference. If SSR became a 15 minute skyliner ride to Epcot and Hollywood Studios, and walking distance to Disney Springs, it could become much more desirable.

 

[Sandisw]

Honestly, I think online booking has had a bigger impact as well. It is so easy to book a reservation..and cancel if needed.l.than having to call. Therefore, people, like myself, book things even when not 100% sure I am going. And the easier it is to book, the harder it will be to change resorts at 7 months