Smaller contracts = less availability?

[Chuck S]

I was just thinking about the busy holiday season, and how most folks call early at 11 months to get their home resort reservations.

Will the 100 point contracts have a negative impact on that availability at AKV?

For instance, when we purchased, 230 points was the minimum. If 15% of a resort wanted a busy time, and the total ownership at a resort was, say 50,000 members, then 15% would mean 7,500 people are competing for the rooms at 11 months.

Now, with 100 point contracts, that 50,000 membership could increase to a possible 115,000 members. Assuming 15% still want to travel during a busy time, that increases the number of people wanting a reservation to 17,250. So while the number or points at the resort didn't increase, the overall membership did, making even more competition for specific dates. While this only affects AKV so far as far as actual availability at 11 months, it also increases call volume and wait time at Member Services, thus raising dues and frustration for all owners.

It will also impact 7 month availability at all resorts.

What do you think? True or not?

 

[bgraham34]

But no matter what you are still having the same amout of points available. There are not adding more points to the resort. Its just more people who will have contracts. Some people will use them every year and some wont.

 

[hakepb]

Good points.
Of course we know smaller contracts can walk less under this new system. Also smaller contracts should be mroe competing for low points periods/rooms than the average DVC'er
Another thought, with smaller contracts should mean shorter stays, which creates more room turnaround which increases mousekeeping needs, then higher dues. (On the plus side, the more frequently a room is cleaned, the better shape it should stay so that might reduce needed renovations)

 

[SuzanneSLO]

I think add-ons actually have have more of an impact on demand for units at the 11 month window than smaller buy-ins do. Those buying add-ons are probably generally more educated as to thier own resort preference. Many buying small initial contracts are buying either whatever DVC is selling in small increments (right now, only AKV) or a resale contract that seems reasonably priced.

I do think that over time more DVC member will see the benefit of certain home resorts and migrate more points to their preferred resort. Many new members honestly believe that they will be happy owning points anywhere. While for some this will always be true, for others, as they expereince more DVC trips, I think they will start to generate a resort preference.

As long as DVC continues to sell, however, this movement to the preferred home resort will be offset to some degree by new members buying whatever DVC is selling or the cheapest resale, even if it is not their preferred resort.

-- Suzanne

 

[Mtnman44]

100 people with 300 point contracts each competing for the same dates use exactly the same number of rooms as 300 people with 100 point contracts...

 

[Chuck S]

100 people with 300 point contracts each competing for the same dates use exactly the same number of rooms as 300 people with 100 point contracts...

Yes, only you now have 300 people competing for those rooms at any one time, when before you'd have 100.

Again, if New Years is the most popular reservation day, and say 50% of members want to travel then, with 100 contracts at 300 points, you'd have 50 people competing for new years eve. With 300 people at 100 point contracts, you have 150 people competing for new years eve.

Now, if there were 50 units available, with 100 contracts, all home resort members were able to get their reservation at 11 months. With 300 contracts, 100 members were unable to get their reservation at 11 months.

 

[spiceycat]

Chuck - don't think it matters. the same time is available to all the members - those in the know will call at 11 months.

those that don't understand will call at 6 months or later - and will wonder why they can't get a room or villa.

remember back when you could get OKW easily - heck some members even drove down there without a reservation and got a villa... those days are gone...

I like my points at different places - BWV and VWL - are both great OTHER places to my mostly OKW stays.

 

[simzac]

Members with 100 point contracts are also more limited on the type of room they can reserve and the length of stay. I don't see at this point where it makes a big difference, but I could be wrong.

 

[Granny]

Yes, only you now have 300 people competing for those rooms at any one time, when before you'd have 100.

Again, if New Years is the most popular reservation day, and say 50% of members want to travel then, with 100 contracts at 300 points, you'd have 50 people competing for new years eve. With 300 people at 100 point contracts, you have 150 people competing for new years eve.

Now, if there were 50 units available, with 100 contracts, all home resort members were able to get their reservation at 11 months. With 300 contracts, 100 members were unable to get their reservation at 11 months.

I think for individual days, such as NYE, it could make a difference. Especially if a lot of the small contract folks live fairly close to WDW and can make short trips.

But for longer trips, I don't think it will matter as much. Small contracts just can't tie up as many days.

In fact, for those booking a 7-10 day trip, for example, the proliferation of small contracts could actually help them since the pool of people who can compete for that length of trip is relatively smaller.

And as was mentioned, those with small contracts can't "walk the reservation".

In the end, I think it's a wash for the most part. Just my two cents.

 

[DisDaydreamer]

Considering peak times and let's say a 1 bdrm... 100 pts won't get you much more than 2-3 nites at AKV. I think if it were the old day-by-day booking process it might have an impact, but with the 7 day book ahead policy the bigger contracts have the advantage.

If I can only afford to book 2 nights and want to stay on Christmas I am definitely at a DIS-advantage to those with enough points to book 7 days away. This is were the old DBD process leveled the playing field for all.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

I agree with your analysis Chuck. If there are more individual owners than that does increase the number of owners that could compete for an individual day and thus make it more difficult to get a reservation.
Of course, as others have stated it doesn't change the fact that there is a set number of points - ie, stays available, so everyone should still be able to get a reservation at some time......but there is now a larger pool that may try to compete for the particular times.

The fact that owners of smaller contracts can't stay as long doesn't really correlate with reservations of particular days. For example 101 points would still get you a week in a Value, Standard or Savanna view studio at AKV during the first week of Dec. That's not exactly a short stay IMO (and is the average lenght of stay stated by DVC when they changed the booking policy I believe). And where 10,000 points used to be split amongst a minimum of 62.5 owners it now could be up to 100 owners. If they all wanted to stay the first week of Dec you now would be competeing against an additional 37.5 owners than you would have with the 160 pt buy in.

The hope will be that it all averages out - or some people are going to have to change their travel patterns and now stay at different times than they planned or hoped to. Or, people will have to start walking to try and get ahold of their room before the other 99 owners!