Significant drop in February crowds?

[NYMommy80]

I just received a Touring Plans update that shows significantly lower February crowd predictions. In my experience they are always correct with their predictions. Anyone have an insight? Week of 2/18-23

 

[Robo]

I just received a Touring Plans update that shows significantly lower February crowd predictions. In my experience they are always correct with their predictions.

Sorry, but that's not been my experience.
And, expect the numbers to be revised as the dates get closer.

 

[pitpat]

.

 

[Alesia]

Sorry, but that's not been my experience.
And, expect the numbers to be revised as the dates get closer.

Same here.

 

[Bing Showei]

Sorry, but that's not been my experience.
And, expect the numbers to be revised as the dates get closer.

Agreed. And I would add that their wait times are horribly projected as well.

 

[NYMommy80]

Same here.

I don’t doubt that they will be adjusting them again. I don’t recall ever getting an alert with such drops.

 

[TheDisneyNurse]

Touring plans isn't always accurate, but if it helps... I LOVE traveling to WDW in February

 

[NYMommy80]

We do too!

 

[Alesia]

I don’t doubt that they will be adjusting them again. I don’t recall ever getting an alert with such drops.

No, I meant that, like Robo, I haven't found their predictions to be accurate.

 

[Robo]

No, I meant that, like Robo, I haven't found their predictions to be accurate.

What I would expect is for them to not yet have adequate intel to make accurate predictions for Feb. 2019.

And, yes, I like to go to WDW in late Jan./early Feb. (but no later than the second week of Feb.)

 

[WishUponAStarryNight]

Interesting...I got an email today indicating decreased crowd level predictions for early November, too. I wonder if the number of people is still predicted to be the same, but what that number correlates to on a scale of 1-10 has changed.

 

[Hockey Nut]

I suspect they are having some sort of technical issue. Some park crowd levels for my President's week trip in February are predicted at 1's and 2's. There's no way that can even be close. That's one of the busiest weeks of the year.

 

[tex1989]

I have never used their numbers so I cannot comment but I really wonder what their alogrithim is to predict crowd levels? I would imagine if I were to build something of the sort I would try to factor in the data I could actually get. Things like onsite room availability, the presence of events, holidays, historical seasonal attendance, and as the date approached availability of FP+ in the parks and even Dining reservations. I guess you could even cooralate airfare costs to Orlando to see if there are cheaper than normal incentive rates. Given the factors I would assume that they probably don't start getting good until say the 60 day out window and at that point everyone has already made their plans so at that point the information is antedotal at best.

 

[otten]

My guess is something has changed on their end with how the predictions are made since a lot of people across a lot of different months got those emails.

 

[Woody412]

I don’t subscribe to them and have never used their calendars but I read an article on their website that described how they come up with their predictions. Unless I misunderstood, they use the historical average wait times from a cross-section of 20+ attractions to come up with their crowd levels. I wasn’t there but the word from those who were was that the wait times this past February were much higher than they have been in the past due to Disney cutting their staffing levels. The only reasonable idea I can come up with is that they might have a source telling them that Disney’s staffing levels won’t be nearly as low this time around. But this is just an idea floating around my head. It’s most likely not the case, it’s just all I can come up with.

 

[pearljamin03]

I got the same email alert today for New Years i almost wet myself but then realized it had to be a glitch! there's no way New year's went from a 10 to a 6 lol

 

[memo10]

In my experience, February is getting more and more crowded as years pass.

 

[TeeKo]

I just received a Touring Plans update that shows significantly lower February crowd predictions. In my experience they are always correct with their predictions. Anyone have an insight? Week of 2/18-23

Princess half marathon festivities are 2/21 through 2/24/2019. It’s usually pretty bustling....

 

[AngiTN]

I just received a Touring Plans update that shows significantly lower February crowd predictions. In my experience they are always correct with their predictions. Anyone have an insight? Week of 2/18-23

Really? Not in my experience.
Otherwise, no insight at all.
Besides, how significant could the change have been? There was no way they were going to be high crowds in mid Feb. So any drop should have only been a point or two, because they should have only been 3s or 4s to begin with.

 

[Robo]

There was no way they were going to be high crowds in mid Feb.

Don't forget President's Day Weekend in 2019 will be Feb. 15, 16, 17, 18.
It's traditionally a busy time.