Sight baloons over Epcot

[lockedoutlogic]

See I do not have a real problem with that. Everyone bought at different times and price points on everything. Sure in hindsight I would have bought 25 years ago not, I think 8 years so everyone gets different prices. Also buying a resale at VB or HH gets the points much lower around 65-70 I think I saw and again they can still use those points to rent at GF or Poly. Of course I could see DVC making different rules if buying at a moderate resort. That would not surprise me.

No, no...they've already yanked the benefits from resells...in essence creating a "second tier"...

If you want to segregate...go all out. The fact is that full price is what it is based on the time of purchase...but they designed DVC specifically to lock people in to the "deluxe" locations and the amenities have been tiered since the start of eisners construction program.

Quite frankly...the moderates are less because they want you to feel like you've paid for "that level"...it's ok if that's what you want...and there's no issue with that. But the notion that "they're all basically the same" when placing DVC blocks is incorrect. That's not the way they are built or operated.

Disney will not want to pay for and staff for lots of amenity at a DVC at Caribbean...they just won't. And the old guard DVC owners aren't gonna like falling back on the old Caribbean limited amenities...and you're talking about hundreds of thousands of contracts...that's how this would shake out. It should be separated in some ways.

 

[ahalper0227]

No, no...they've already yanked the benefits from resells...in essence creating a "second tier"...

If you want to segregate...go all out. The fact is that full price is what it is based on the time of purchase...but they designed DVC specifically to lock people in to the "deluxe" locations and the amenities have been tiered since the start of eisners construction program.

Quite frankly...the moderates are less because they want you to feel like you've paid for "that level"...it's ok if that's what you want...and there's no issue with that. But the notion that "they're all basically the same" when placing DVC blocks is incorrect. That's not the way they are built or operated.

Disney will not want to pay for and staff for lots of amenity at a DVC at Caribbean...they just won't. And the old guard DVC owners aren't gonna like falling back on the old Caribbean limited amenities...and you're talking about hundreds of thousands of contracts...that's how this would shake out. It should be separated in some ways.

100% agree, you said what I was trying to say better than I did.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

100% agree, you said what I was trying to say better than I did.

Awww, shucks

 

[Grumpy6264]

The way I look at this is DVC would not need to lower the price per point, just reduce the number of points required for a room. That way, people who want to buy into a moderate DVC resort could at a lower total cost and still not be able to access the deluxe resorts the same way as owners of the deluxe resorts could.

Additionally, an owner at a deluxe resort would be able to stay at a moderate resort cheaper than the deluxe resort.

 

[beer dave]

The issue I see is that we have all bought into a deluxe resort timeshare. It is not right to me to put someone on the same playing field who bought into a moderate resort timeshare just because DVC wants to lower the standards to sell more points. A good idea if they want to go that route would be to have a moderate tier DVC and build properties at desirable moderates (coronado springs, port orleans). Now that would sell.

This debate has been gone through a few times, but the basics become in order for it to be "fair" to the current owners, the new resort would have to have an equal or close buy in cost per point to the current list price, but a low point per night requirement. This way, as Eddie said, a lower income bracket could be able to obtain a low points contract for their required length of stay at the moderate, or trade up to a deluxe and get about two thirds to one third the time....

 

[beer dave]

The way I look at this is DVC would not need to lower the price per point, just reduce the number of points required for a room. That way, people who want to buy into a moderate DVC resort could at a lower total cost and still not be able to access the deluxe resorts the same way as owners of the deluxe resorts could.

Additionally, an owner at a deluxe resort would be able to stay at a moderate resort cheaper than the deluxe resort.

Oops--- should have read ahead a bit.......I couldn't have said it better.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

This debate has been gone through a few times, but the basics become in order for it to be "fair" to the current owners, the new resort would have to have an equal or close buy in cost per point to the current list price, but a low point per night requirement. This way, as Eddie said, a lower income bracket could be able to obtain a low points contract for their required length of stay at the moderate, or trade up to a deluxe and get about two thirds to one third the time....

Then longtime owners that bought into DVC at a lower price point and/or smaller contract will "back flow" into the moderate spots at lower point charges to get more out of their contracts...which means it will be booked solid and the gaps will be at old key west and saratoga...which the new "moderate" DVC owners won't want to pay for...

I know we're spinning the wheel on this again...frankly because there's no way to get off it without not building at Caribbean at all.

As expected...the "right" way would have been to regulate the price increase, sell tons of more contracts in new add ons to deluxes...and collect the ancillary revenues.

Which was...of course...the idea in the first place.

 

[beer dave]

Then longtime owners that bought into DVC at a lower price point and/or smaller contract will "back flow" into the moderate spots at lower point charges to get more out of their contracts...which means it will be booked solid and the gaps will be at old key west and saratoga...which the new "moderate" DVC owners won't want to pay for...

I know we're spinning the wheel on this again...frankly because there's no way to get off it without not building at Caribbean at all.

As expected...the "right" way would have been to regulate the price increase, sell tons of more contracts in new add ons to deluxes...and collect the ancillary revenues.

Which was...of course...the idea in the first place.

A possible scenario-- another possible result-- all the new moderate purchasers will fill the moderate resort leaving very few gaps for the backflow... although the new moderate members will be inexperienced, so at 7 months their resort will be filled by BFers, forcing new MM's to upgrade... which will make them unhappy.

You would think though, if there was such a large possible group of BFers as to fill a moderate resort, then OKW and SSR would be full now.....Maybe this group doesn't exist...

 

[lockedoutlogic]

In my experience, most DVC falls into three categories:

1. The "dynasty" segment...as in 80's Joan Collins style new money. Buy it up, talk it up, revel in how "luxurious" it is and don't go to the old key west and Saratogas of the world

2. The "value" segment...on a quest to achieve "maximum value" from their purchase to show who's boss. Those are your current OKW and Saratoga junkies...ripe for 6 point a night rooms in Bon Bini tower.

3. Iger is looking for the "rainbow unicorn" segment. Big money, landed aristocracy that will be buying from now on. Paying premium prices for non premium services...but too stupid/in love with Disney to notice. That segment doesn't exist currently...and Has the same chance of existing as a rainbow unicorn.

So I'm thinking displacement from group B into moderates...with no change to groups A and C.

 

[ahalper0227]

This debate has been gone through a few times, but the basics become in order for it to be "fair" to the current owners, the new resort would have to have an equal or close buy in cost per point to the current list price, but a low point per night requirement. This way, as Eddie said, a lower income bracket could be able to obtain a low points contract for their required length of stay at the moderate, or trade up to a deluxe and get about two thirds to one third the time....

This makes sense and I do see your point. The one concern with that format that I have is the ability for getting studios will be even more so diminished at 7 months, as this would bring in an additional group of owners that would really only have enough points to stay in a studio at the deluxe resorts.

 

[beer dave]

This makes sense and I do see your point. The one concern with that format that I have is the ability for getting studios will be even more so diminished at 7 months, as this would bring in an additional group of owners that would really only have enough points to stay in a studio at the deluxe resorts.

Probably true. There's so many ways to look at this... There may be some who bought enough to stay at studios in the deluxes who are wanting a larger room for expanding family and will be hoping for a lower point cost on a 2 bedroom.... If they build any...Back to what lol said-- this place would be pounded by bookings...

 

[lockedoutlogic]

Probably true. There's so many ways to look at this... There may be some who bought enough to stay at studios in the deluxes who are wanting a larger room for expanding family and will be hoping for a lower point cost on a 2 bedroom.... If they build any...Back to what lol said-- this place would be pounded by bookings...

And I'm sure that's the point...but I have little faith this management has any longterm strategy in parks, so "firing bullets" like this could kill the program and its been mutually beneficial to this point.

 

[beer dave]

And I'm sure that's the point...but I have little faith this management has any longterm strategy in parks, so "firing bullets" like this could kill the program and its been mutually beneficial to this point.

You know, I've always said that DVC (for early members) has been about the only thing where disneys need to advance offerings to raise prices has benefited the consumer...maybe disney has realised that and this is an attempt to eliminate it. I bet their hind sight machine is telling them they should have limited each sale to the resorts that were in existance at the time of purchase...... now that would have worked to their benefit....

 

[lockedoutlogic]

Right...but it is by far their most longterm product. And quarterly thinking just will not work.

They'll suffocate it. It used to be $150 a night prices on $350 rooms...it won't sell if it's $400 a night on $600. They'll hit a price wall...when that happens, they'll squeeze margins in a tacky way that doesn't fit...then they'll lose interest.

There's actually a public way they advertise how the product has declined over the years right under our noses...if you pay attention...

 

[Nancyg56]

The issue I see is that we have all bought into a deluxe resort timeshare. It is not right to me to put someone on the same playing field who bought into a moderate resort timeshare just because DVC wants to lower the standards to sell more points. A good idea if they want to go that route would be to have a moderate tier DVC and build properties at desirable moderates (coronado springs, port orleans). Now that would sell.

But will they be on the same playing field? If you need a lot more points to stay at the Poly than at CBR, then in the long run, it folks puchase the points that they need for a stay at their Mod DVC, wont the Deluxe resorts be kind of picked out for them? And conversely, if fewer points per night are needed at a mod than at the Deluxe, doesn't that create some issues if those who bought at the Deluxe decide they want mod, and at 7 months book?

I'm still attempting to figure the whole thing out because we are considering a Poly purchase. If I am confusing the issue, disregard my post! LOL!

 

[rteetz]

I'm guessing this is what the poster saw

http://www.wdwmagic.com/resorts/dis...spotted-at-disneys-caribbean-beach-resort.htm

 

[lockedoutlogic]

I'm guessing this is what the poster saw

http://www.wdwmagic.com/resorts/dis...spotted-at-disneys-caribbean-beach-resort.htm

Those balloons don't place the spot where they would have to build a DVC...

I think that is more over near the customs house...

You know...the could build a DVC AND a new services building...that would change the game entirely...especially if it involved Direct access

 

[pavicich]

Still unclear to me why we are jumping to a moderate conclusion. It could be its own property just as easily.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

Still unclear to me why we are jumping to a moderate conclusion. It could be its own property just as easily.

The last rack rate property was started in 2001...pop century

The last standalone DVC property was a redeveloped Saratoga in 2003...the last orginal construction was half of Boardwalk in 1995...

There's a trend there...and very little mystery as to why

 

[pavicich]

I hear ya, however if it is mostly due to utility and roadway architecture that they have built at other resorts that would also be the same case here (i.e. For the most part in place).

I just don't see the business model of a moderate as advantageous as one that Could provide very close access into some of their new park properties.