Side by side comparison 2020 Point Charts vs 2019

[Madame]

It's usually just the two of us & we prefer dedicated villas. BWV has only lock off 2 bedrooms.

Yes that makes sense! For us we’re 5 so this is going to make life easier for much fewer points. I worry about next time, however, and I don’t like how this is playing out for others. It offends my sense of fair play and has tarnished my view of Disney

 

[RRB]

It's usually just the two of us & we prefer dedicated villas. BWV has only lock off 2 bedrooms.

Us too at the BWV.

 

[lovin'fl]

It means less days at our DVC. Our points don't go as far. So less days. I think it means the cabins and bungalows lie empty and everything else books solid. Disney can then book cabins and bungalows for cash (CRO).

 

[RRB]

Yes but it has always been this way from day one. I actually purchased points at the Poly then moved those points to Copper Creek due to the Bungalow cost.

 

[Dean]

Thanks for running the numbers. However, I think it's very important to be clear on a number of issues:

- The numbers you cited are a worst case scenario, assuming that ALL lockoffs are booked separately

- The ONLY way this results is more profit for Disney is if it causes vacant villas to pass through to the breakage period. If a Studio and 1B are booked separately at a premium of 10 points, it does NOT give DVC itself 10 extra points to work with. The system doesn't work that way. The extra points only come into play if they result in net vacancies-- rooms which members no longer have enough points to book--at the breakage window.

- The POS I reviewed states that the Breakage window is to run somewhere between 30-90 days before arrival. I've been told DVC actually uses 60 days. So Disney ONLY profits from breakage when:

- There are unbooked villas in the points inventory 60 days prior to arrival
- Disney successfully rents those villas to cash guests
- The collective income generated by the breakage exceeds the 2.5% stated in the annual budgets

- Villas are also made available to cash guests when members trade-out of DVC resorts (cruises, Concierge collection, etc.) and from points that Disney owns outright. Then you have the breakage revenue earmarked for members. So any added profit from Breakage is at least 4th in line behind these other sources of cash revenue.

It's human nature to assume the worst from Disney with this move, but given that this is the first time the lockoff premium has been adjusted in 29 years, it might be worth considering other options. Things like the increased refurbishment schedule (I posted some numbers on OKW here), changes in average length of stay, changes in member banking / borrowing habits, reduction in the number of points which have gone unused over the years and the resulting impact on member availability, and the volume of unbookable nights at the resorts have undoubtedly changed in the last 3 decades.

*IF* this premium figure continues to grow year-after-year, I wholeheartedly agree that it is worthy of suspicion. One adjustment in 29 years does not strike me as outrageous. And it's very premature to start playing the "what if" game.

IIRC the POS gives them the right to anticipate breakage back to the 11 month window.

 

[DougEMG]

Thanks for running the numbers. However, I think it's very important to be clear on a number of issues:

- The numbers you cited are a worst case scenario, assuming that ALL lockoffs are booked separately

- The ONLY way this results is more profit for Disney is if it causes vacant villas to pass through to the breakage period. If a Studio and 1B are booked separately at a premium of 10 points, it does NOT give DVC itself 10 extra points to work with. The system doesn't work that way. The extra points only come into play if they result in net vacancies-- rooms which members no longer have enough points to book--at the breakage window.

- The POS I reviewed states that the Breakage window is to run somewhere between 30-90 days before arrival. I've been told DVC actually uses 60 days. So Disney ONLY profits from breakage when:

- There are unbooked villas in the points inventory 60 days prior to arrival
- Disney successfully rents those villas to cash guests
- The collective income generated by the breakage exceeds the 2.5% stated in the annual budgets

- Villas are also made available to cash guests when members trade-out of DVC resorts (cruises, Concierge collection, etc.) and from points that Disney owns outright. Then you have the breakage revenue earmarked for members. So any added profit from Breakage is at least 4th in line behind these other sources of cash revenue.

It's human nature to assume the worst from Disney with this move, but given that this is the first time the lockoff premium has been adjusted in 29 years, it might be worth considering other options. Things like the increased refurbishment schedule (I posted some numbers on OKW here), changes in average length of stay, changes in member banking / borrowing habits, reduction in the number of points which have gone unused over the years and the resulting impact on member availability, and the volume of unbookable nights at the resorts have undoubtedly changed in the last 3 decades.

*IF* this premium figure continues to grow year-after-year, I wholeheartedly agree that it is worthy of suspicion. One adjustment in 29 years does not strike me as outrageous. And it's very premature to start playing the "what if" game.

Disney is big into data mining, look how much they spent on Magic Bands so they can track exactly what everyone is doing and where we are going. As someone involved in the data warehousing industry I think this is a text book senario for why you build a data warehouse.

Do I assume the worst with Disney? I am getting there. Just look at what they did.

Strike 1 - Built expensive bungalows, sold points on them knowing the people they were selling those points to would never own enough points to book them, putting pressure on all the other resorts.

Strike 2 - That worked so well for them (not for members though), that they did it again at CCV.

Strike 3 - Manipulate the lock-off premium to their sole benefit and potentially willfully break the point reallocation rules around a unit vrs point reallocation around the entire resort.


So I originally bought DVC because I trusted Disney more than other timeshare companies. Saving some money means nothing if you can't trust the company you are buying from to not screw you over. That trust has now been broken.

 

[Madame]

IIRC the POS gives them the right to anticipate breakage back to the 11 month window.

Can you elaborate?

 

[Dean]

Can you elaborate?

I'm going from memory but IIRC they can simply determine (? guess) the likely breakage inventory and take it all the way back to the 11 month window. They do not have to wait until 60 days out. And in the theme of this thread, if one doesn't feel they can trust them in one area, they likely shouldn't trust them in this or other areas either including not to use their internal access to secure the best weeks for rental with the points they have appropriate for rental usage (traded for DCL, owned by DVD, etc). As I've said a recently, if I got to that point, I'd sell. There is not enough savings withDVC to second guess them at every turn.

 

[Madame]

I'm going from memory but IIRC they can simply determine (? guess) the likely breakage inventory and take it all the way back to the 11 month window. They do not have to wait until 60 days out. And in the theme of this thread, if one doesn't feel they can trust them in one area, they likely shouldn't trust them in this or other areas either including not to use their internal access to secure the best weeks for rental with the points they have appropriate for rental usage (traded for DCL, owned by DVD, etc). As I've said a recently, if I got to that point, I'd sell. There is not enough savings withDVC to second guess them at every turn.

I agree. There have been some shenanigans going on with AKV 11 mo inventory as well. I would prefer not to sell my contracts at a loss (factoring in broker fees), but I will if I feel this new management cannot be trusted. Life’s too short.

 

[Dean]

I agree. There have been some shenanigans going on with AKV 11 mo inventory as well. I would prefer not to sell my contracts at a loss (factoring in broker fees), but I will if I feel this new management cannot be trusted. Life’s too short.

The other issue I read, which I did not recall, was they can change the breakage period from 60 days but as short as 30 or as long as 90 days.

 

[Madame]

The other issue I read, which I did not recall, was they can change the breakage period from 60 days but as short as 30 or as long as 90 days.

Interesting. So maybe those complaining that they can’t get a room on points but can on cash (& getting told those are 2 different inventories) are not that off base...

 

[Dean]

Interesting. So maybe those complaining that they can’t get a room on points but can on cash (& getting told those are 2 different inventories) are not that off base...

There are lots of reasons for rooms to be available for cash but not for points. Implemented properly the breakage inventory would have not basis on that until you hit the breakage period, currently 60 days. If they take rooms ahead of time it'd only because those have been consistently available historically and if they take them early they might have more option that could benefit members or DVC but not to the detriment of members. Most of the time when people complain on this matter it's because they don't understand the different buckets of inventory, basically they don't understand what they own. You can tell because they're upset that it's even happening not questioning if it was done incorrectly.

 

[Madame]

There are lots of reasons for rooms to be available for cash but not for points. Implemented properly the breakage inventory would have not basis on that until you hit the breakage period, currently 60 days. If they take rooms ahead of time it'd only because those have been consistently available historically and if they take them early they might have more option that could benefit members or DVC but not to the detriment of members. Most of the time when people complain on this matter it's because they don't understand the different buckets of inventory, basically they don't understand what they own. You can tell because they're upset that it's even happening not questioning if it was done incorrectly.

That makes sense. I’m seeing ulterior motives & manipulation everywhere now, though. Sigh.

 

[Dean]

That makes sense. I’m seeing ulterior motives & manipulation everywhere now, though. Sigh.

If that were me and that sense persisted, I'd sell. Life's too short, the compromises significant and the savings not dramatic enough to second guess every issue.

 

[SpaceMountain77]

We will be affected with Dream Season booking in May. For a 9-night studio stay, from Friday through Sunday, AKV (Savanna), BCV, BLT (Lake), SSR (Preferred), and VGF (Standard) are an 18-point increase over previous years. Moreover, AKV (Standard) and BWV (Standard; Preferred) are a 13-point increase over previous years.

If I am unable to secure an AKV Value studio at the 11-month mark, then I will aim for BRV, CCV, OKW, or SSR (Standard) at the 7-month mark because they are the most economical options.

 

[PetePanMan]

If that were me and that sense persisted, I'd sell. Life's too short, the compromises significant and the savings not dramatic enough to second guess every issue.

It seems like most of those expressing concern are looking for some detailed answers to their questions and some additional transparency - this seems reasonable before jumping to selling.

 

[Dean]

It seems like most of those expressing concern are looking for some detailed answers to their questions and some additional transparency - this seems reasonable before jumping to selling.

I agree and have said as much. If you go back and look at my post I was referring to the issue of second guessing them on a consistent basis.

 

[Henwen88]

Interesting. So maybe those complaining that they can’t get a room on points but can on cash (& getting told those are 2 different inventories) are not that off base...

There are lots of reasons for rooms to be available for cash but not for points. Implemented properly the breakage inventory would have not basis on that until you hit the breakage period, currently 60 days. If they take rooms ahead of time it'd only because those have been consistently available historically and if they take them early they might have more option that could benefit members or DVC but not to the detriment of members. Most of the time when people complain on this matter it's because they don't understand the different buckets of inventory, basically they don't understand what they own. You can tell because they're upset that it's even happening not questioning if it was done incorrectly.

I can 100% confirm that they pull rooms even before 11 months. That being said, I'm not sure if this was booked with Disney's own percentage or breakage. I was offered a (one) comp night in a studio for a terrible, air-condition impaired, BWV stay in July (3 nights with no reaction at all from management, but I digress). They gave me a list of DVC properties to choose from, and I was able to book a BLT theme park studio for 12/31. I cannot imagine any scenario where owners would not book that room, but it was allowable within the rules, so I booked it - 12 months in advance.

 

[mjr0483]

Looking at the chart for OKW it looks like 3 of the 20 had no increase, 2 of the 20 had a decrease and 15 of the 20 had an increase. Unless that chart is wrong this was a total net point increase across the entire resort. I thought our points were to retain their value.

 

[Dean]

I can 100% confirm that they pull rooms even before 11 months. That being said, I'm not sure if this was booked with Disney's own percentage or breakage. I was offered a (one) comp night in a studio for a terrible, air-condition impaired, BWV stay in July (3 nights with no reaction at all from management, but I digress). They gave me a list of DVC properties to choose from, and I was able to book a BLT theme park studio for 12/31. I cannot imagine any scenario where owners would not book that room, but it was allowable within the rules, so I booked it - 12 months in advance.

Technically speaking the only way they can book a room before 11 months is if it wasn't declared into inventory or as part of a reservation string for a reservation up to 7 nights. For points, including retained points, they come under the same rules as we do. That said, they have to plan certain options including maintenance, and flexibility for such matters is more than reasonable. I've had a comp stay as well due to a fairly major issue long ago.

Looking at the chart for OKW it looks like 3 of the 20 had no increase, 2 of the 20 had a decrease and 15 of the 20 had an increase. Unless that chart is wrong this was a total net point increase across the entire resort. I thought our points were to retain their value.

It only applies to the full units not locked off thus does not apply to the studios or 1 BR at OKW. And it's total points in the "base year".