Shouldn't Airfare Be Going Down...?

[disneyscootergal]

Have you tried pricing from Billings? My mom lives there, and it seems like airfare is sometimes a bit more reasonable since it's more of a hub. Or how far are you from Salt Lake? I know it's a pain to drive to another city, but sometimes the savings are worth it.

Thanks for the ideas! Yes, I've tried Billings, Missoula, Bozeman, Butte, and Helena. But really Helena is the only other feasible option. THe other towns are far enough away that we'd have to stay over a night to catch the flight the next morning, and there goes the savings.

Another snag in the situation is that I don't know the exact dates of the workshop for next summer; I've got a good idea based on the dates it's occurred other years, but not sure enough to buy 6 airline tickets.

 

[consultant]

I forgot how far out your flights are but try using www.farecast.com. It is fairly reliable about its predictions.

The main factor aside from oil prices is demand. Most people already had their vacation planned for the next 6 months so it will be a few more months before the sudden downturn in the economy catches up.

Also airlines hedge their fuel costs for different lengths and different percentages of their fuel consumption needs. I believe Southwest hedges about 3/4 of it's fuel needs at contracts about 6-9 months out but I could be wrong.

The good news is oil has dropped significantly. That combined with declining demand due to less people flying, should keep prices about the same or maybe even start some fare wars. If oil prices go back up, and the economy averts a serious, deep, long-term recession over the next couple of years, prices could be going up.

The other thing is airlines announced recently they are taking more and more of their jets out of their fleet and parking them or retiring and selling them.

My best guess is prices will not go significantly up or down, but you'll see airline layoffs with less flights to match a decreased demand in this falling economy. So in other words, it's all probably going to be a wash.

One way to maybe predict would be to see what happened with airfare in the year or two following the .com bust in 2000. That may give you a glimpse of the future.

I just think with falling oil prices, there won't be any fare increases as then airlines will not be able to fill up the planes due to the economy even if they are reducing the number of flights.