So what are the odds - in a totally non-scientific - uncertified - and statistically insignificant way? We're at 1804 viewings and 61 votes or opions reported... and this is getting statistically significant.
Well - if you start in a 12 then the odds of getting a catagory ....
12 = 16.4%
11 = 21.3%
10 = 16.4%
9 = 26.2%
8 = 9.8%
7 = 3.3%
6+= 6.6%
Put another way ... the odds for a veranda or 5+ catagories are 9.9%; and for a window or 3+ catagories = 36.0%; and for an inside cabin that is above a 12 or +1 or 2 catagories = 37.7%. It looks like it is an 83.6% chance for something better than a catagory 12 -or- better than the level at which you reserved. IE - you reserve a catagory 6 guarantee and GET a "6".
ALSO... here is the data if YOU are a repeat customer (
Castaway Club) and indicated so...
Cat 12 .... 5 of 10 were CC (50%)
Cat 11 .... 5 of 13 were CC (38.5%)
Cat 10 .... 3 of 10 were CC (30%) split bath
Cat 9 .... 4 of 16 were CC (25%) window
Cat 8 .... 3 of 6 were CC (50%)
Cat 7 .... 1 of 2 were CC (50%) veranda
Cat 6+ ... 0 of 4 were CC ( 0% )
Only 21 of 61 who voted what they were assigned AND admitted they were CC means that among the whole voting group ~ 34.4% were CC members. SO... if any given catagory had more then 34.4% with CC members than this was an above average possibility. IE... in a catagory 9, 10 or 6+ we had a lower than average representation of CC members. While in catagories 12, 11, 8 and 7 we had an above average representation of CC members.
Or put another way.... the 21 CC members seem to have the following probabilities for an cabin assignment.... and the 40 non-CC members enjoy the following probabilities:
Castaway Club Non-Castaway Club
Cat 12 ... 23.8% Cat 12 ... 12.5%
Cat 11 ... 23.8% Cat 11 ... 20.0%
Cat 10 ... 14.3% Cat 10 ... 17.5%
Cat 9 ... 14.3% Cat 9 ... 10.0%
Cat 8 ... 14.3% Cat 8 ... 7.5%
Cat 7 ... 4.8% Cat 7 ... 2.5%
Cat 6+ ... 0% Cat 6+ ...10.0%
Comparing the odds for various cabin catagories broken out for CC and non-CC members shows that for a....
catagory 12 ... a CC member is 11.3% more likely to get this than non-CC
catagory 11 ... a CC member is 3.8% more likely to get this than non-CC
catagory 10 ... a CC member is 3.2% LESS likely to get this than non-CC
catagory 9 ... a CC member is 4.3% LESS likely to get this than non-CC
catagory 8 ... a CC member is 7.2% more likely to get this than non-CC
catagory 7 ... a CC member is 2.3% more likely to get this than non-CC
catagory 6+... a CC member is 100% LESS likely to get this than non-CC
I'm not very impressed by the catagory 12 and 6+ implications for CC members. Of course ... this is all fairly unscientific and more educated guess then science.
At least we now have some developing statisitical significance and "indication" here... and the good news simply is that its' not all that bad. Especially with no one voting they has a BAD cabin assignment. Some posted that they went lateral on their guarantee assignment by buying an upgrade and new location. AND
if you're a CC member there is a 76.2% chance of getting better than a catagory 12 assignment.
And of course,
non-CC members can look forward to an 87.5% chance for a catgory 11 or better! 
Loyalty pays....?
I'm still waiting for my guarantee 12 assignment (less than 5 weeks before my embarkation)- and as such - I am hoping DCL will not find a quad cat 12 for me INSIDE the engine room with a coal shovel. We've never booked a guarantee cabin before (that I can recall... sometimes I think I might be having a "senior moment" sometimes). At any rate - with 1800+ visits and 61 responses I think we have a working impression of what goes on. Maybe if we get some interesting changes in the total votes I'll resummarize this - otherwise I think it's time to let this thread fade.
BTW... for giving up cabin location selection
I estimate we would save $1100+ if we only get a catagory 11. Which is generally what I think is most likely given we are a party of 4. Even if we get a 12 we save a little $. So - we really don't LOSE. And we booked fairly recently. I would of course be very pleasantly surprised IF we got a window .... or dare I dream ... a veranda. I see no hope for better than a catagory 7 as a CC member. Sigh.... I do wish loyalty paid with DCL... but sadly it does not seem so.
It would be nice (imagine) if every sailing DCL ran a SPECIAL FREE lottery among repeat patrons (like me) - and the lucky winner got a FREE sailing! But I suspect this is not very likely to happen ... especially if the top tier of cabins are taken by repeat patrons! But it IS a wild eyed notion I thought I'd aire! Just in case a decision maker is looking and feels it is "doable"! Just think of the FREE BUZZ you'd generate !!! That would be way out of porportion to the lost revenue. In fact ... if the promotion brought in 2 new patrons for the 1 given away on an other-wise less than 100% full sailing then it is a net GAIN for the line. And if we booked a cheap cabin then we would have a low dollar payout... and if we booked a high dollar cabin then our payout would be larger! That seems fair to me!!! And you'd give us all something to talk about on the DIS and Cruise Critic! To say nothing of all the FREE MEDIA BUZZ and PARK BUZZ you'd generate ... and the mad scramble of past patrons returning to DCL!!!!
What do ya say????
Cheers everyone - and thank you for your contributions, curiosity and interest.
Bloody Captain
Crash
Bill to death!
Of course I expected no less from you! I knew you would know your stuff logistically! I know it makes the most sense that the higher up you are the more you feel the sway, etc. I do always want a midship cabin if I can. But, for some reason the front always "seems" to work better for me than the rear (if I can't get my midship). I tried the lower cabins on other ships and for some reason I just always do better on the upper decks 
My insomnia is starting to wain and I am ready to get some shut eye now. (They really need a yawning smilie!) Morning is going to come awful early for me. 
Nice talking to you MommaLuvsDis!
