Sept Passholder discounts

[DopeyDame]

I know this is just speculation, but what are the typical passholder discounts at moderates in mid to late September? We're almost definitely going to get annual passes for our trip this fall (as we'll be going back again within the year).
I was thinking about using points to rent DVC for the Sept trip, and comparing that cost to the moderates at rack rate I'm comfortable with the extra money for DVC. If the passholder rate at the moderates makes it much cheaper though, we would probably go with moderates.
Does this make any sense?

Thanks for any insight anyone can offer into hisotric passholder discounts in Sept.!