Sept. 2018 TP Crowd Calendar

[JenniferYoung44]

i keep getting alerts that touring plans has lowered the crowd levels for September 2018. They even have DHS at a 1 a bunch of days. Any idea why? Hurricane scare after last years Irma? It makes me nervous that they know something about that time that I don’t, that would really make people not want to go. (Aside from the usual September reasons: heat, hurricanes, school)

 

[GillianP1301]

I'm going end of August into the first couple days of September and a couple of months ago they drastically hiked the crowd predictions for my trip. Today's changes have brought them down closer to where they were before the last change. I can only guess that they are constantly changing whatever algorithms they are using to calculate. They'll likely change again once park hours are confirmed.

For what it's worth, I don't put a lot of stock into the crowd predictions other than to try to avoid a park that has an obvious higher predication than the rest. But if they are all 4 - 6, then I pretty much ignore and make the plan that best works for me.

 

[AFwifelife]

September, especially at the beginning of the month, is a slower time. I’m not tracking our September dates yet because official park hours aren’t even up yet but my May dates dropped a point for most days.

 

[GADisneyDad14]

Like with Pandora, it seems to me that Toy Story Land opening will be a major wild card with these park/crowd calendars.

 

[anniemae]

Like with Pandora, it seems to me that Toy Story Land opening will be a major wild card with these park/crowd calendars.

I agree. I feel like it will be busy

 

[JenniferYoung44]

I agree. I feel like it will be busy

Me too, which is why I’m not understanding the “1”s

 

[LandonDunes]

I’m getting updates for Oct as well...most parks’ crowd levels are being reduced.

 

[tinkerbella16]

I just got updates today for our week in November - mostly decreased but a couple of days increased a point.

 

[disneyjr77]

Not sure if you saw this, but here's a blog post they wrote the other day explaining the changes. I don't know the rules for posting links since i never do, but i hope i'm not breaking any rules.

https://blog.touringplans.com/2018/02/12/crowd-calendar-4-1/

 

[SaintsManiac]

I just ignore the emails. I'm expecting it to be busy. We'll be there 9/1-9/8.

 

[JenniferYoung44]

Not sure if you saw this, but here's a blog post they wrote the other day explaining the changes. I don't know the rules for posting links since i never do, but i hope i'm not breaking any rules.

https://blog.touringplans.com/2018/02/12/crowd-calendar-4-1/

Based on this blog I would say the numbers are artificially low because they are using wait time data for September 2016 and 2017, when September 2017 was ravaged by hurricanes and attendance was lower. You would think the statisticians would throwout those numbers as outliers and use 2015 and 2016 for September, but doesn’t look like they are.

 

[Princess_Lisa]

I have been getting the emails for my Birthday trip saying they lowered the crowd prediction. I think they estimated high as my dates are supposed to coincide with the beginning of the "off" season and are now adjusting downward as hours are released, etc...As others have said, TSL opening, especially being later than originally expected (June 30) could significantly increase crowd levels at MGM. Of course, the flip side of that is if everyone is doing 1-1/2 to 2 MGM Days instead of 1/2 to 1, the other parks might be less crowded.

 

[disneyjr77]

Based on this blog I would say the numbers are artificially low because they are using wait time data for September 2016 and 2017, when September 2017 was ravaged by hurricanes and attendance was lower. You would think the statisticians would throwout those numbers as outliers and use 2015 and 2016 for September, but doesn’t look like they are.

Good point! I didn't think about that, i was only thinking in general it would take out the attendance from when parks were slower and make it a smidge more accurate.

 

[PrincessWithABlaster]

As I read that article, essentially they are redefining what the numbers mean again. So really, the crowd level predictions didn’t change, just the numbers that represent them since the last 2 years have had higher attendance. So that means 4 is the new 6. I have mixed feelings because it means that going forward you can’t compare this years 5 to any other years 5 to know what to expect. But I also see their point with the new lands opening up, it doesn’t help anyone to know that every day is going to be a 10.

 

[Princess_Lisa]

As I read that article, essentially they are redefining what the numbers mean again. So really, the crowd level predictions didn’t change, just the numbers that represent them since the last 2 years have had higher attendance. So that means 4 is the new 6. I have mixed feelings because it means that going forward you can’t compare this years 5 to any other years 5 to know what to expect. But I also see their point with the new lands opening up, it doesn’t help anyone to know that every day is going to be a 10.

Not sure what I think about this. A "1" feels like it should mean little or no wait not what you would typically see until 10 AM middle of the week.

 

[KNovacovschi]

I find it odd that those crowd numbers are so low. With MNSSHP and F&W starting earlier every year and with TSL this year I just don't see it being that low. I feel like the last couple years the middle to end of September have been getting busier and busier.

 

[JenniferYoung44]

The thing I don’t like is that is Disney monkeys with staffing and ride capacity in slow times the way some people suspect, it makes wait times a really poor choice of data to base crowd calendars on. Also, when I look to see how crowded a park is I r ally want to know more than how long I’ll wait on rides. I wAnna know how many people I’m going to be running into with my stroller or competing for same day passes with.

 

[PrincessWithABlaster]

The thing I don’t like is that is Disney monkeys with staffing and ride capacity in slow times the way some people suspect, it makes wait times a really poor choice of data to base crowd calendars on. Also, when I look to see how crowded a park is I r ally want to know more than how long I’ll wait on rides. I wAnna know how many people I’m going to be running into with my stroller or competing for same day passes with.

Yeah, that one depends on your perspective. Yes, given a choice between open walkways and grind to a halt people gridlock, I’d pick open walkways but what I really care about are wait times. Crowds at QS and walkways matter too but I’d rather know how long I’m going to be in line. But different people have different perspectives on that.

 

[Average Joes]

Thank you for the above post. When booking for September I had not really thought about alternative time savings. Maybe QS will be faster (subject to less staffing), less crowds/lines for fireworks, parades, character greetings, being able to arrive a bit later for shows, etc.. I only focused on ride wait times and being a bit annoyed they would not run the ride at full capacity (although I saw that in February last year).

 

[jkh36619]

I think crowd calendars do more harm than good. They lull people into thinking that a park is going to be near empty only to find long lines for everything when the arrive. Then they are disappointed or upset. I say go when you want and expect a crowd.