bsmcneil
DIS Veteran
- Joined
- May 22, 2006
Can I borrow your teenager?Best practice advice of mine has always been to put the best phone in the hands of a teenager in the group. Turns out they can even do it with an old phone!
Can I borrow your teenager?Best practice advice of mine has always been to put the best phone in the hands of a teenager in the group. Turns out they can even do it with an old phone!
SureYou get what confirmation bias is, right?
You get what confirmation bias is, right?
How do I demonstrate I don't? The PP mentioned, "On that very active board we did notice there were hardly any reports of people trying on 2 days and not succeeding for at least one. Very rare. Not impossible but so rare it was only mentioned a couple times while success was reported for hundreds of parties." but isn't it somewhere between possible and likely that they are taking in information that agrees with their perspective (and that the people self-selecting to post on a message board are not a control group of all of those who tried to experience the ride)? I mean - it's great if that's how it worked out for everyone but it's also quite likely that confirmation bias came into play (as it does with just about everything). Personal anecdotes without data - great but also open to not being the literal truth.Apparently you don't.
How do I demonstrate I don't? The PP mentioned, "On that very active board we did notice there were hardly any reports of people trying on 2 days and not succeeding for at least one. Very rare. Not impossible but so rare it was only mentioned a couple times while success was reported for hundreds of parties." but isn't it somewhere between possible and likely that they are taking in information that agrees with their perspective (and that the people self-selecting to post on a message board are not a control group of all of those who tried to experience the ride)? I mean - it's great if that's how it worked out for everyone but it's also quite likely that confirmation bias came into play (as it does with just about everything). Personal anecdotes without data - great but also open to not being the literal truth.
How do I demonstrate I don't? The PP mentioned, "On that very active board we did notice there were hardly any reports of people trying on 2 days and not succeeding for at least one. Very rare. Not impossible but so rare it was only mentioned a couple times while success was reported for hundreds of parties." but isn't it somewhere between possible and likely that they are taking in information that agrees with their perspective (and that the people self-selecting to post on a message board are not a control group of all of those who tried to experience the ride)? I mean - it's great if that's how it worked out for everyone but it's also quite likely that confirmation bias came into play (as it does with just about everything). Personal anecdotes without data - great but also open to not being the literal truth.
Confirmation bias is actually based in unintentional actions/thoughts.Someone saying that "the majority of people posting on the board say X" is not confirmation bias. Is that a scientifically generated sample? No, of course not. But it's not the original writer's confirmation bias just because they report back what they read.
If you could objectively prove that they were deliberately ignoring just as many people saying the opposite, you could argue confirmation bias. But until you can, there's no reason not to take those people at their word.
Confirmation bias is actually based in unintentional actions/thoughts.
I’ll be honest, we aren’t going to WDW until December, and I’m already stressing about this. The main reason we are going is so my middle school boys can see all the Star Wars stuff. We have 1 day at DHS. After the insanity of trying to get them a PS5 for Christmas last year, I’m thinking there’s no way in the world we’re going to get on that ride! Especially if I only have 2 chances to make it happen! My husband said “we need to expect that we won’t ride it, and if we get on it’ll be a bonus.” So we’re not going to talk it up to our kids, so they don’t get their hopes up.I really think this online race to vie for daily rides on ROTR is terrible. Why not change it to regular que lines like everything else?
I’ll be honest, we aren’t going to WDW until December, and I’m already stressing about this. The main reason we are going is so my middle school boys can see all the Star Wars stuff. We have 1 day at DHS. After the insanity of trying to get them a PS5 for Christmas last year, I’m thinking there’s no way in the world we’re going to get on that ride! Especially if I only have 2 chances to make it happen! My husband said “we need to expect that we won’t ride it, and if we get on it’ll be a bonus.” So we’re not going to talk it up to our kids, so they don’t get their hopes up.
I am having a similar feeling re: January and my kiddos. Luckily, I think there will be enough to distract them.I’ll be honest, we aren’t going to WDW until December, and I’m already stressing about this. The main reason we are going is so my middle school boys can see all the Star Wars stuff. We have 1 day at DHS. After the insanity of trying to get them a PS5 for Christmas last year, I’m thinking there’s no way in the world we’re going to get on that ride! Especially if I only have 2 chances to make it happen! My husband said “we need to expect that we won’t ride it, and if we get on it’ll be a bonus.” So we’re not going to talk it up to our kids, so they don’t get their hopes up.
I actually prefer Star Tours (and FOP at AK). This ride is a pain in lots of ways and it’s forever breaking down. It has some cool elements but try to get a reservation to go build a droid or light saber for more hands-on ($$) fun.I’ll be honest, we aren’t going to WDW until December, and I’m already stressing about this. The main reason we are going is so my middle school boys can see all the Star Wars stuff. We have 1 day at DHS. After the insanity of trying to get them a PS5 for Christmas last year, I’m thinking there’s no way in the world we’re going to get on that ride! Especially if I only have 2 chances to make it happen! My husband said “we need to expect that we won’t ride it, and if we get on it’ll be a bonus.” So we’re not going to talk it up to our kids, so they don’t get their hopes up.
I actually prefer Star Tours (and FOP at AK). This ride is a pain in lots of ways and it’s forever breaking down. It has some cool elements but try to get a reservation to go build a droid or light saber for more hands-on ($$) fun.
You (or your kids) can start practicing getting the boarding pass at home. I highly recommend it.I’ll be honest, we aren’t going to WDW until December, and I’m already stressing about this. The main reason we are going is so my middle school boys can see all the Star Wars stuff. We have 1 day at DHS. After the insanity of trying to get them a PS5 for Christmas last year, I’m thinking there’s no way in the world we’re going to get on that ride! Especially if I only have 2 chances to make it happen! My husband said “we need to expect that we won’t ride it, and if we get on it’ll be a bonus.” So we’re not going to talk it up to our kids, so they don’t get their hopes up.
Luckily we all 4 now have phones, so as we get closer (and we’ve told them that we’re going), we can all have family practices.You (or your kids) can start practicing getting the boarding pass at home. I highly recommend it.
I’m hoping to get in a half day at AK, so we’ll check FOP out too. I’ve seen that line can be 2 hrs long too. So many cool things, so little time! HaI actually prefer Star Tours (and FOP at AK). This ride is a pain in lots of ways and it’s forever breaking down. It has some cool elements but try to get a reservation to go build a droid or light saber for more hands-on ($$) fun.
We only go to Disney once every few years, so my kids have always been so excited about the things we did get to do and see, that they haven’t gotten too hung up on things we didn’t get to do. I guess that’s the beauty of not knowing what you’re missing out on. But we will still try like heck to get on this ride! HaI am having a similar feeling re: January and my kiddos. Luckily, I think there will be enough to distract them.
My teenager was the one to score our boarding group with 0 practice and without ever reading a message board. He did have the newest phone out of us though.Luckily we all 4 now have phones, so as we get closer (and we’ve told them that we’re going), we can all have family practices.
I truly feel that practicing is overrated.Luckily we all 4 now have phones, so as we get closer (and we’ve told them that we’re going), we can all have family practices.